BTC Sitting on the 61.8% Retrace: Primed for a Mean-Reversion Pop Toward 111k in the Next 24 Hours

Executive summary and 24h bias

• Current (2025-09-01 20:58 UTC): 108,756.59
• Today’s range (intraday, hourly data): 107,310 – 109,830
• Immediate bias next 24h: Moderately bullish mean-reversion from key higher-timeframe Fibonacci support, with risk of a final liquidity sweep into 107.3–107.9k before an advance toward 110.5–111.2k.
• Plan: Buy the dip near the 61.8% retracement confluence; target a move back to the 50% retracement/overhead micro-resistance zone.

1. Multi-timeframe market structure Daily structure (June → present)

• Uptrend from late June (swing low 98,286 on 2025-06-22) into mid-August (swing high 123,682 on 2025-08-13), followed by a corrective leg lower.
• Since the 123.7k high, sequence shows lower highs and lower lows through late August, then compression between ~108k and ~110k.
• Key pivots:
  • Highs: 123,682 (Aug 13), 124,457 intraday on Aug 14 (spike), then progressive lower highs: ~120.3k (Aug 12/17 cluster), ~119.85k (Jul 14 close, later resistance), ~116.9–117.5k area.
  • Lows: 113.46k (Aug 24), 110.12k (Aug 25), 108.41k (Aug 29), 108.24k (Aug 31). Today’s intraday low 107.31k (hourly) extends the sweep but price reclaimed >108k by the close of the hour.
• Interpretation: A corrective ABC-type decline off the August high appears mature; price is basing around the golden-ratio retracement zone.

4H/1H micro-structure (last 24–36 hours)

• Range behavior: 107.3k–109.8k with wicks above 109.8k failing; buyers repeatedly defend 107.3–108.1k.
• Liquidity map: Equal-high/stop liquidity sits above 109.83k; clustered equal lows around 108.10–108.25k and a deeper pocket around 107.3k.
• Today’s flow: Early-session downtick to 107.3k, recovery to 109.83k, fade toward ~108.8k into the 21:00 UTC print. This is classic range reversion with a modestly rising intraday floor.

2. Key levels and confluence

• Fibonacci retracements of the June 22 low (98,286) to Aug 13 high (123,682):
  • 38.2% ≈ 113,974
  • 50% ≈ 110,984
  • 61.8% ≈ 107,983
• Price is oscillating around the 61.8% (≈108.0k) with multiple intraday defenses—strong confluence for mean reversion higher.
• Horizontal S/R:
  • Resistance: 109.83k (intraday high/stop layer), 110.5–111.0k (50% fib + prior breakdown shelf), 112.5–113.5k (late-Aug bounce area), 115.0–115.5k (old support turned resistance, near July pivots).
  • Support: 108.4k/108.2k (recent daily/weekly closes), 107.3k (today’s intraday low), 106.8–107.0k (prior demand shelf/previous daily lows cluster), 105.5k (daily pivot 06/20 & 06/30).
• Volume profile (qualitative): Recent high activity nodes built 117–119k through mid-Aug; new node forming 108–110k. Value developing at the lower node often precedes a rotation to test upper node edges (110.5–111k).

3. Trend and moving averages

• 20D SMA (approx) ≈ 113.8k: Price is ~5k below—short-term bearish relative trend but stretched toward lower band.
• 50D SMA (approx) ≈ 114–115k: Price below; slope flattening vs. mid-August.
• 100D SMA (rough) likely near 112–113k given June’s lower prints and July’s higher prints; price below.
• Takeaway: Multi-day corrective posture persists, but distance from short MAs supports a bounce-back attempt toward the 20D midpoint.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (est.): High 30s to low 40s after the late-Aug selloff—near but not at capitulation; open room to revert to mid-40s/50s on a 1–2% push.
• Hourly RSI: Multiple higher-lows in RSI against flat-to-higher price lows from 107.3–108.1k region: constructive micro bullish divergence.
• Stochastics (H1/H4): Cycling up from oversold on the intraday timeframes, consistent with a bounce toward the range top.
• MACD (Daily): Below zero line, but histogram contraction over the last 3 sessions suggests bearish momentum is waning.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) Daily (est.): ~3.3k–4.1k. Expect ±1.5–2.0k typical 24h swing from mid-range prints in current regime.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Middle band ≈ 113.8k; lower band estimated near 108–109k. Price hugging/lapping the lower band for several sessions tends to precede mean reversion toward the mid-band; initial target is often the first overhead resistance cluster (here ~111k).

6. Ichimoku (Daily, qualitative)

• Price below Tenkan/Kijun and likely below Cloud following the August breakdown.
• Kijun (≈ equilibrium) projects near 116–117k; Tenkan likely ~113–115k.
• While that’s a bearish context, flat Kijun above price often acts as a magnet after momentum stalls—consistent with a short-term bounce even within a broader correction.

7. Pattern recognition

• Descending channel/falling wedge from Aug 13 highs, with compression showing on intraday charts; today’s move printed a lower tail (107.3k) and reclaimed 108.7–109.0k intra-hours—typical of a spring/test dynamic.
• Candlesticks (daily): Late Aug bars show small bodies near the lower band with longish lower wicks—buyers emerging on dips.
• Wyckoff lens: Accumulation-like behavior at the current node—spring (107.3k) followed by test and hold above the 61.8% level (~108.0k). A push through 109.8–110.0k would signal Phase D rotation toward the mid.

8. Liquidity and execution micro-structure

• Resting stops above 109.83k (session high cluster); a measured break/close above there tends to accelerate into 110.5–111.0k.
• Downside liquidity likely sits below 108.10k and 107.3k; a brief stop-sweep toward 107.6–107.9k would not invalidate the bullish mean-reversion case if promptly reclaimed.

9. Elliott wave context (heuristic)

• From the Aug 13 peak, an ABC move:
  • A ≈ 123.7k → 117.4k (~6.3k)
  • B sideways 117–120k
  • C ≈ 119.99k → 108.41k (~11.6k), an extended C (≈1.8x A) that often marks late-stage correction.
• Extended C terminating near the 61.8% retracement aligns with a bounce attempt.

10. Scenario mapping (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈60–65%): Minor dip/sweep into 107.6–108.0k, reversal through 109.0k, stop run above 109.83k, extension toward 110.5–111.0k (50% fib ≈ 110.98k). Close near 109.7–110.8k zone.
• Bear case (≈25–30%): Failure to hold 107.9k; decisive break of 107.3k exposes 106.8–107.0k (prior shelf) and, if momentum accelerates, 105.5k. Would delay mean reversion by 24–48h.
• Low-probability spike (≈5–10%): Direct breakout from current 108.7–109.0k through 109.83k without tagging 108.0k; in that case, expect momentum to stall near 110.5–111.0k on first attempt.

11. Synthesis and trading plan

• Edge drivers for a long:
  • Strong confluence at 61.8% retracement (~107.98k) with multiple intraday defenses.
  • Momentum loss in bears (MACD histogram contraction) and intraday RSI divergences.
  • Price riding the lower Bollinger band; mean-reversion propensity to mid/first resistance.
  • Range behavior with recurring rejections of sub-108k and quick reclaims—buyers responsive on dips.
• Risks to the long:
  • Structure is still below key MAs/Ichimoku; trend-following signals are not yet flipped.
  • A deeper sweep to 106.8–107.0k is possible if 107.3k fails on a high-volume push.
• Execution:
  • Optimal entry: Limit buy in front of the 61.8% fib cluster at 108,050 to capture a routine dip without overexposing to a liquidity flush.
  • Target: First test of 50% fib/overhead micro-resistance at ~110,980.
  • Optional risk control (not required but prudent): Protective stop in the 106,400–106,800 zone depending on tolerance; this preserves a favorable R:R versus the 110.98k target.

12. Bottom line

• The corrective leg is mature into a powerful retracement cluster; intraday signals suggest the path of least resistance near-term is a bounce toward 111k. I favor buying a controlled dip toward 108.05k and targeting a rotation into 110.98k over the next 24 hours.