BTC: Sell the Rip into 113k — Fading a Counter-Trend Rally Toward 110k

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis (daily + hourly) and 24-hour trading plan for BTC/USD

1. Market structure and trend context

• Higher-timeframe (Daily) structure: BTC printed a local swing high on Aug 13 (~123,682) and has since been in a sequence of lower highs and lower lows into the Aug 29 trough (~108,411). Recent daily closes around 108–112k show a potential short-term base, but the broader structure remains a corrective downtrend from mid-August highs. The current daily close (111,405) is still below key moving averages, indicating the bounce is counter-trend until proven otherwise.
• Near-term (Hourly) structure: From Sep 1 (close ~109,251) through Sep 2, price stair-stepped higher with higher highs/lows, capped by an end-of-hour push to ~111,396. Price closed the last hour at the session high (minor momentum extension), which often invites a retest of intraday supports/VWAP before any further advance.

2. Moving averages (trend and mean reversion)

• Daily 20-SMA (approx): ~113,200. Price (~111,405) sits below the 20-SMA, implying the short-term mean remains overhead and acts as resistance. Mean reversion from below suggests rallies may stall into the 113k area unless breadth improves.
• Daily 50-EMA/SMA (approx): ~115–116k. This tracks the July/August plateau; it’s decisively above current price, reinforcing the broader corrective trend.
• Daily 200-SMA (approx): Low 110s (mid- to high-100s earlier in the summer), likely still below-to-near price; BTC remains in a long-term uptrend, but the intermediate swing is down.
• Hourly 20/50-EMA: Positive slope today, consistent with the intraday uptrend; however, the 20/50-EMA bull slope into resistance often precedes a fade when the daily is still bearish. Takeaway: Higher-timeframe trend down-to-neutral; intraday trend up into overhead resistance. Favors sell-the-rip tactics near resistance.

3. Momentum indicators

• Daily RSI (14): Likely mid-40s to high-40s; bounced from sub-40s last week. Still below 50 suggests bearish-to-neutral momentum regime on daily.
• Hourly RSI (14): Likely elevated (>60) after the 20:00–21:00 breakout, flirting with overbought. Price made a marginal higher high (111.40 vs 111.69 earlier hour) but RSI may be flat-to-lower versus prior momentum high—risk of a minor bearish divergence into resistance.
• Daily MACD: Histogram improving from negative (bearish momentum waning), but signal line is likely still below zero. Classic bear-rally look until the signal crosses.
• Hourly MACD: Positive and rising into the close; however, post-breakout positive skew often mean-reverts if no immediate follow-through above key resistance (112.5–113.5k). Takeaway: Momentum improving short-term but still below neutral on daily; risk of intraday exhaustion near resistance.

4. Volatility and bands

• Daily ATR (14) estimate: ~4.0–4.5k. Implies typical day range ±2–2.5k around a pivot. A 24-hour swing of 2–4k is normal; moves of 5–6k require catalysts.
• Daily Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline near the 20-SMA (~113.2k). Bands likely near upper ~122k and lower ~104–105k, reflecting August’s wider drift. Current price is below the midline, in the lower half of the bands; rallies to the midline are expected selling zones in a downtrend.
• Hourly Bollinger/Keltner: Price ended near the upper bands into the hour close—typical location for a micro pullback or sideways digestion. Takeaway: Room exists for a daily mean reversion to ~113k, but intraday bands signal near-term extension.

5. Volume, breadth, and flow

• Daily volume: Sep 2 shows robust activity (~77B) on an up day compared to the last few sessions; that’s constructive for a bounce. However, strong down days around Aug 29 were similarly heavy, and distribution zones above remain untested.
• OBV: Likely uptick over the past two sessions but remains below mid-August OBV highs—a partial confirmation of bounce, not a trend reversal yet.
• Volume profile (recent 30–45 days): High-volume nodes (HVNs) near 112.5–113.5k and 109.5–110.0k; low-volume area (LVA) between 111.8–112.5k. Expect two-sided auction: thin air into 112.5 can accelerate, but supply at 112.6–113.5 is heavy. Takeaway: Supply likely reloads in 112.6–113.5k; demand emerges near 110–109.5k.

6. Support and resistance map

• Immediate resistance: 111.42k (R2 intraday pivot), 112.55k–112.62k (Aug 27–28 highs/closes), 113.45k (Aug 28 high), 114.25k (Fib 38.2%). Above that: 116.05k (Fib 50%) and 116.9k (Aug 22 close), then 117.85k (Fib 61.8%).
• Immediate support: 110.70–110.75k (intraday shelf), 110.20–110.45k (VWAP zone today), 109.80–110.00k (composite HVN), 109.25k (Sep 1 close), 108.80k (Aug 30 close), 108.41k (Aug 29 close) / 107.44k (Aug 30 low).
• Pivot points (based on Sep 1 H/L/C): P ~108.80, R1 ~110.34, R2 ~111.42, R3 ~112.96. Price closed just under R2 and has R3 precisely in the 112.9–113.0k area, aligning with structural resistance. Confluence supports short entries near 112.9–113.3k. Takeaway: Dense resistance stack 112.6–113.5k; layered supports 110.7 → 110.2 → 109.8.

7. Fibonacci and mean-reversion confluence

• Swing Aug 13 high (123,682) to Aug 29 low (108,411):
  • 38.2%: ~114,246
  • 50%: ~116,046
  • 61.8%: ~117,847 Current bounce has not reclaimed 38.2%—a hallmark of a weak corrective rally. The first serious bull test is 112.6–114.3k; failure here often reverts to 110–109.5k before any second attempt.

8. Ichimoku framework (daily)

• Tenkan (9) likely ~113–114k; Kijun (26) ~115–116k. Price below both indicates bearish posture.
• Cloud (Senkou A/B) likely sits 115–118k; price below the cloud is bearish. Chikou span likely below price/ cloud, confirming the corrective regime. Takeaway: Until BTC closes above Tenkan/Kijun cluster and enters the cloud, the bias remains sell-the-rip.

9. Oscillators and trend strength

• Stochastic daily: Rising from mid-zones but not yet through bullish territory; hourly is likely >80 (overbought), increasing pullback risk.
• DMI/ADX daily: ADX moderate; -DI > +DI across August; a weak bounce has not flipped +DI dominance.
• Parabolic SAR (hourly): Dots likely below price after the late-day push; a one- to two-candle pause often flips the next wave of testing lower supports. Takeaway: Mixed-to-bearish on daily, overbought on hourly.

10. Pattern diagnostics

• Double-bottom attempt: 108.4–108.8k (Aug 29–31) forms a tentative base. Confirmation requires reclaim of 112.6/113.5 first, ideally a daily close above ~114.3k (Fib 38.2%). Not yet achieved.
• Regression channel (last 2–3 weeks): Downsloping; price now near upper boundary. Typical spot for mean-reversion lower unless a breakout is sustained.
• Wyckoff lens: A Selling Climax (SC) near 108.4k, Automatic Rally (AR) into ~111.7k, and now potential Secondary Test (ST) likely in the 110.0–109.8k area if supply caps the first rally.
• Elliott-wave sketch: Potential five-wave decline into Aug 29, current move likely an A/B corrective push. Failure at 112.6–113.5k would mark B and invite a C-wave test lower towards ~109–108k. A clean break and hold above 114.3k would invalidate near-term bearish count and target 116.0–117.8k.

11. Intraday execution indicators (Sep 2)

• VWAP (session): Approx 110.5–110.7k. Current price above VWAP indicates an extended move; first pullbacks often revisit VWAP before deciding next leg.
• Market timing: Late US session strength often mean-reverts into Asia/early Europe if major resistance lies just above. With R3 ~112.96 and structural resistance 112.6–113.5k, the overnight Asia session has an elevated probability of fading upticks.

12. Scenario analysis (24-hour outlook)

• Base case (≈60%): Early-session probe into 112.6–113.3k (R3 + prior supply). Sellers defend; price fades to 110.2–110.0k with potential extension to 109.8k. Range-bound close near 110.5–111.0k.
• Bullish extension (≈30%): Momentum gap through 113.5k; acceptance above 113.5 turns 114.25k (Fib 38.2%) into magnet. If 114.3k flips to support, overshoot to 115.0–116.0k possible. Would invalidate the short thesis.
• Bearish immediate (≈10%): No push higher; sellers hit immediately from 111.4k, sending price straight to 110.0–109.8k before a reactive bounce.

13. Risk management and invalidation (tactical)

• Short bias is favored by: below-daily-mean status (20-SMA ~113.2), dense overhead supply (112.6–114.3k), hourly extension into upper bands, pivot R3 confluence ~112.96k, and daily momentum still sub-neutral.
• Invalidation: A 4h close above 113.5k or a daily close above ~114.3k would likely force covering as the path opens to 116k.
• Expected range next 24h: ~109.5k to ~113.5k (with tails possible to 114.2k on upside, 109.0k on downside).

14. Synthesis and trade plan

• Edge: Sell rallies into 112.9–113.3k zone where pivot R3, prior supply (112.6–113.5k), and daily mean/oscillators converge.
• Profit objective: Reversion to the session VWAP band and HVN 110.0–110.2k. Conservative TP around 110.1k balances hit-rate and payoff given ATR.
• Note: If price fails to tag entry and instead rejects from 111.7–112.0k, consider patience; best R:R remains closer to R3/upper supply.

Directional call for next 24 hours: Probable fade from 112.6–113.3k back toward 110.0–110.5k. Counter-trend longs are viable only on deep pullbacks into 110.0–109.8k with tight risk, but our preferred setup is sell-the-rip.

Decision: Sell (Short Position)

• Open (limit): 112,950 (targeting confluence with pivot R3 and supply)
• Close (take profit): 110,100 (HVN/VWAP reversion zone)
• Invalidation guide (not an order here): Sustained trade >113,500 or daily close >114,300 would negate the short thesis and suggest flipping bias.