BTC poised for a 1H ascending-triangle breakout — Buy the dip to VWAP, target the 114k magnet

Timeframe and data context

• Instrument: BTCUSD
• Timestamp now: 2025-09-03 ~21:00 UTC
• Current price: 112,231
• Data inputs: Daily OHLCV (2025-06-06 → 2025-09-03) and intraday 1h prints for 2025-09-03

Executive summary (24h outlook)

• Base case (≈60%): Continuation of the nascent rebound, targeting 113,700–114,200 as price reverts toward the 20D mean and tests the 38.2% Fib of the Aug pullback. Expect a breakout and hold above 112,500 (today’s 1h R1 area) to open the path.
• Bear case (≈40%): Failure to clear 112,500–112,600 leads to a drift back into 111,900 → 111,200 VWAP/HL support, with extension risk to 110,700 if momentum wanes.
• Trade bias: Buy dips into VWAP/HL cluster (≈111,900–112,000) aiming for the 113,900–114,000 resistance shelf.

1. Multi-timeframe price action and structure

• Daily structure: After peaking 123,344 (2025-08-13), BTC printed a sequence of lower highs and lower lows into the 108,237 low (2025-08-31). Since then: higher low at 109,251 (2025-09-01) and higher high at 111,201 (2025-09-02 close) with today pushing 112,526 intraday. This is a short-term bullish reversal (higher low + higher high) inside a broader corrective structure.
• 4H/1H structure: Today’s 1H series shows rising swing lows: 110,612 (06:00) → 111,742/111,834 → 112,111, with horizontal resistance around 112,500–112,530. This sketches an ascending triangle on 1H. A sustained break and close above 112,530 would target 113,750 (measured move aligns with R2) and then 114,000 (Fib/round-number confluence).
• Key swing points: Support 110,700 (today’s 1H swing zone), 111,200 (yesterday’s close/pivot adjacency), 111,900–112,000 (intraday VWAP/value). Resistance 112,530 (today’s high cluster), 113,450 (8/24 close), 113,760 (R2), 114,000–114,050 (Fib 38.2% and round number), 115,790 (50% Fib).

2. Trend and moving averages

• 20D SMA (approx): 113,189. Price is ~0.8% below, favoring mean-reversion upward.
• 50D SMA (est.): ~114,800. Price below, indicating medium-term downtrend still intact; expect supply near 114.5–115k.
• 10D EMA (est.): ~112.0–112.2. Price hovering slightly above, supportive for short-term longs. Interpretation: Short-term trend turning up (price > 10EMA), but still under 20/50-day resistances; room to revert toward 113.2–114.8 if momentum persists.

3. Oscillators

• RSI14 Daily (est.): 46–48, rising from sub-40 at the 108k low; neither overbought nor oversold—supports further recovery before hitting fatigue.
• RSI 4H/1H: Mid-to-high 50s on 1H after a series of higher lows; mild overbought intraday risk but no divergence visible against today’s highs—momentum constructive for a push toward 113.7–114k after a shallow dip.
• MACD Daily: Histogram less negative and curling up; signal line cross potential in coming sessions. On 4H likely crossed positive already; 1H positive—bullish short-term impulse.
• Stoch 1H: High but not extreme; favors minor pullbacks rather than deep reversals.

4. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR14 (est.): ~3,000–3,200. A 1x ATR from 112,200 projects a plausible 24h range of 109,000–115,400, but realized distribution likely tighter given current compression.
• 1H ATR (est.): ~450–600; intraday swings of 400–800 are consistent with recent prints. Expect oscillations around VWAP with upside follow-through upon 112.5 break.

5. Bollinger Bands (20D)

• Middle band ~113,200; lower band recently tagged near the 108k area; upper band estimated 116.5–117.5. Interpretation: Price rebounded off lower band and is sub-midline; typical path is mean reversion to middle band then probe toward upper band if momentum improves—first target 113.2–114.0.

6. Ichimoku (Daily, approximations)

• Tenkan (9): ~111.9–112.2
• Kijun (26): ~114.5–115.0
• Span A (Lead 1): ~113.5; Span B (Lead 2): ~114.7 (flat) Interpretation: Price above Tenkan but below Kijun; flat Span B/Kijun above can act as a magnet. Expect attempts toward 113.5 then 114.5 if 112.5 is secured.

7. Fibonacci mapping (Aug 13 high 123,344 → Aug 31 low 108,237)

• 23.6%: ~111,800 (recent acceptance zone)
• 38.2%: ~114,005 (major near-term target/resistance)
• 50%: ~115,790 (secondary target if momentum expands)
• 61.8%: ~117,575 (stretch target beyond 24h base case) Interpretation: Current bounce is below 38.2%; a healthy corrective rebound typically tests at least 38.2%, pointing toward 114k as the magnet over the next 24h.

8. Classical pivots (derived from 2025-09-02 H/L/C)

• Pivot P ≈ 110,468
• R1 ≈ 112,481 (today’s high ~112,526 was a near-perfect tag)
• R2 ≈ 113,762
• S1 ≈ 109,187; S2 ≈ 107,174 Interpretation: Price is oscillating around R1. A stable hold above R1 implies a rotation toward R2 ≈ 113,760; this aligns closely with our first upside target zone.

9. VWAP and intraday value

• Today’s 1D VWAP estimated around 111,900–112,000. Price currently a touch above. Interpretation: Buying near VWAP in an ascending triangle often offers favorable R:R. Expect responsive buyers to defend 111,900–112,000 on first tests.

10. Volume, OBV, and profile context

• August down-leg carried heavier volume into the 108–112k pocket, forming a high-volume node around 111–112.5k (acceptance). Today’s push to 112.5k on steady volume suggests supply sits just above 112.5k; a stop-driven run into 113.5–114k is likely if that lid breaks.
• OBV (qualitative): Stabilizing after August’s decline; no fresh distribution signature today.

11. Pattern diagnostics

• 1H ascending triangle: Flat-ish ceiling 112,50x with rising lows from 110.6 → 111.7 → 112.1. Measured move ≈ triangle height (~1.0–1.2k) projects 113.6–113.8 on breakout—coincides with R2 and just below 38.2% Fib (114k). Confluence strengthens the 113.7–114.0 target.

12. Liquidity and stop/option levels (inferred)

• Liquidity likely stacked above 112,530 and 113,000; larger pools at 114,000. Beneath, stops likely below 111,200 and 110,700. Expect a stop-hunt dynamic: brief dip to VWAP, then a sweep through 112.53 → 113.0 → 113.7–114.0.

13. Risk factors and invalidation

• Rejection twice above 112,500 with increasing sell volume would weaken the triangle and raise the odds of a rotation back to 111,200 and possibly 110,700.
• Macro/event risk not visible in dataset; if surprises hit, the 109,200 pivot S1 is the next structural catch-down.

14. Scenario map (next 24h)

• Bull case (≈60%): Buyable dip 111,9xx → breakout above 112,53x → trend extension to 113,70–114,05. Consolidation expected near 114k.
• Bear case (≈40%): Early failure at 112,5k, drift to 111,9xx; if VWAP fails decisively, test 111,2xx, with tail risk to 110,7xx where buyers likely re-engage.

Trade plan (precision)

• Bias: Long
• Entry: Limit buy at 111,900 (VWAP/HL confluence), tolerant to 112,000 if momentum holds.
• Target: 113,950 (front-running the 114,000/38.2% Fib + R2 confluence), capturing the measured move and avoiding round-number supply.
• Protective context (not required but prudent): Invalidation below 110,700 (1H swing low). That sets an indicative R:R ≈ (113,950-111,900)/(111,900-110,700) ≈ 2,050/1,200 ≈ 1.7x.

Bottom line

• Short-term momentum has turned constructive within a still-corrective higher timeframe. Multiple confluences (1H ascending triangle, daily mean reversion toward SMA20, pivot R2 alignment, 38.2% Fib at ~114k) favor a tactical long on a dip into VWAP with targets just shy of 114k over the next day.