BTC: Buy the Dip into 110.9k — Rotate to 113.1k as Weekend Liquidity Thins

Executive Summary

• Bias (next 24h): Mildly bullish within a choppy, range-bound regime. Base case range 110,200–113,100 with an upside skew if 113,150 breaks intraday.
• Plan: Buy-the-dip into 110,600–111,000 support; first target the pivot-resistance cluster near 113,100. Probability-weighted path favors a re-test of R1 after a liquidity sweep lower.

1. Multi-Timeframe Trend & Structure

• Higher timeframe (Daily): • Trend context: After peaking mid-Aug (~124.5k), BTC sold off to late-Aug lows (~107.4–108.1k). Since Aug 31, price prints higher lows (108.24 → 109.25 → 110.33 → today ~110.6 intraday) and marginally higher highs (112.63 → 113.28), signaling an early-stage short-term uptrend within a broader corrective phase. • Market structure: Price is below the 38.2% retracement of the Aug 14 high to Aug 30 low (38.2% ≈ 113,945; 50% ≈ 115,950; 61.8% ≈ 117,959). The inability to reclaim 38.2% keeps the medium-term bias corrective, but the series of higher lows supports a tactical bounce.

• Intraday (Hourly): • Today saw a push to 113.28, rejection, sharp dip to ~110.33 around 14:00 UTC, then a steady recovery into 111.6 at the snapshot. This creates a V-shape intraday recovery with a higher low versus Sep 4 (~109.35). Resistance is well-defined at 112.63–113.30; support 110.2–110.8. • Micro-structure: Liquidity grabs below 110.6 got absorbed; buyers defended the prior session’s value area low repeatedly. This supports a continuation attempt toward the 112.6–113.1 supply.

2. Moving Averages & Trend Filters

• Daily SMAs (approximations from the last closes): • 20-day SMA ≈ 112,230: Price (~111,608) sits just below; a reversion push to the mean is likely if support holds. • 50-day SMA ≈ 114–116k (est.): Overhead dynamic resistance aligns with 50% Fib (115,950). Any 24h pop likely stalls before this zone. • 200-day SMA ≈ ~100–105k (est.): Long-term uptrend intact; medium-term corrective.
• Hourly EMAs (qualitative): 8/21 EMAs flattened post-rejection but remain near/just above price on dips, consistent with buy-the-dip conditions within a rising short-term channel.

3. Momentum & Oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): ~40–41 (computed from recent 14 closes). Implication: Bearish-neutral; not oversold. Room exists for a further bounce without immediate overbought risk.
• Hourly RSI: Mid-50s on the bounce with no strong bearish divergence at the 111.6 area; momentum is constructive unless 110.6 breaks decisively.
• MACD (Daily): Likely negative but curling upward as the short-term higher lows build—consistent with a budding bullish momentum cross on lower timeframes first.
• Stochastics (H1/H4): Likely mid-range after the intraday reset, favoring continuation toward resistance before re-entering overbought.

4. Volatility & Bands

• ATR(14) Daily (est.): ~2,000–2,400. Expected 24h envelope ≈ ±2.2k from current → 109.4k–113.8k base band; aligns with S1–R2 pivots.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) Daily (approx.): • Middle band ≈ 112,230 (20SMA), upper ≈ ~118k, lower ≈ ~106k. Current price is slightly below the mid-line, leaving room to mean-revert toward 112.2–113.1 without band stress.
• Keltner Channels (20,1.5ATR): Price is inside the channel; no squeeze; supports oscillation within the defined pivot levels.

5. Key Levels: Fibonacci, Pivots, and Market Profile

• Fib (Aug 14 high 124,457 → Aug 30 low 107,444): • 38.2% = 113,945; 50% = 115,950; 61.8% = 117,959. • Current price remains below 38.2%; a near-term rally likely meets resistance just shy of 114k.
• Classical Pivots for the upcoming session (using 9/5 OHLC: H≈113,225, L≈110,330, C≈111,608): • Pivot P ≈ 111,721; R1 ≈ 113,112; R2 ≈ 114,616; R3 ≈ 116,007; S1 ≈ 110,217; S2 ≈ 108,826; S3 ≈ 107,322. • Price currently just below P and under R1. Expect back-and-forth around P with tests of S1 on dips and R1 on pops.
• Volume/Market Profile (qualitative from hourly volumes): • High activity nodes: ~110.6–111.2 and ~112.6–113.2. Acceptance zones often magnetize price. A move from lower node (~110.6–111.2) tends to rotate to the upper node (~112.6–113.2).
• VWAP (today): Near 111.6–111.8 by close; current price ≈ vwap, suggesting balanced conditions with potential for a VWAP flip-and-go if dips are bought.

6. Pattern Recognition

• Ascending Triangle / Range: Flat-ish resistance 112.6–113.3 with rising swing lows from late Aug. Measured move if a clean break above 113.3 could target ~118.0 (height ~4.9k added to breakout). Unlikely fully realized in 24h, but first leg to 114.6 (R2) is plausible on a strong session.
• Candlesticks intraday: 14:00 UTC printed a long lower-tail rejection (hammer-like) at 110.57–110.61 followed by higher closes—bullish response at demand.
• Heikin-Ashi read (qualitative): Mixed-to-bullish on lower TF after the afternoon flush; wicks down are shrinking, reflecting improving bid.

7. Ichimoku (Qualitative)

• Price near/just below conversion/base averages on daily; cloud resistance above (~114–116). On 1H/4H, price oscillates around the cloud with an emerging twist; reclaiming 112.6–113.1 likely flips lower TF clouds bullish and opens a run to ~114.6.

8. DMI/ADX, OBV, CMF (Qualitative)

• DMI/ADX: ADX subdued; +DI and −DI converging after selloff, implying chop transitioning toward a directional move. Slight +DI advantage on lower TFs following the recovery.
• OBV: Flat-to-slightly rising since Aug 31, indicating accumulation on dips despite rejections at 113s.
• CMF/MFI: Neutral-to-slightly positive intraday as rebounds occur on expanding volume, consistent with net inflows around 110.6–111.2.

9. Risk Framing & Scenarios (Next 24h)

• Base Case (50–55%): Range trade. Early dip toward 110.6–110.2 (S1 zone) finds buyers; rotation higher toward 112.6–113.1 (R1). Close near the upper third of the day’s range.
• Bullish Extension (25–30%): Break and hold above 113.15–113.30 unlocks a push toward 114.6 (R2). Stronger case if dip is shallow (holds >111.2) and volume expands on breakout.
• Bearish Fade (15–20%): Loss of 110.2 on a closing basis invites a sweep toward 109.0–108.8 (S2). Deeper extension likely limited by the recent higher-low structure unless 108.2–108.4 fails.

10. Confluence Summary

• Supports: 110,200–110,800 (S1, prior intraday low 110.33, value area). Rising local trendline connects 108.2/109.3/110.3.
• Resistances: 112,630–113,300 (prior highs, R1 confluence), then 114,600 (R2) and 113,945–114,000 (38.2% Fib).
• Mean Reversion: 20SMA ~112,230 above price. Reclaiming this and closing above 112.6 would strengthen the bull case.
• Volatility: ATR supports a 2.2k move—enough to tag either S1 or R1 and potentially stretch to R2 on momentum.

11. Trade Plan (Tactical Long)

• Rationale: Short-term uptrend with higher lows, intraday absorption below 111, and strong support near S1. Expect rotation back to the supply node at 112.6–113.1. Risk is well-defined below 110.2.
• Entry (limit): 110,900 (inside the 110.6–111.0 demand pocket; improves R:R vs market buy).
• Target (take profit): 113,100 (R1 cluster/upper node; front-run offers at 113.15–113.30).
• Invalidation (stop, for risk management, not part of order output): ~109,800 (below S1 and below today’s structural low), yielding ~2.2k upside vs ~1.1k downside ≈ 2:1 R:R.

12. What Would Change My Mind?

• Bearish: Strong hourly close below 110,200 (S1) on rising volume flips the bias to sell rallies toward 111.0 with 108.8 as target.
• Bullish: Early-session reclaim and acceptance above 113,300 with rising OBV raises the target to 114,600 within the window.

Bottom Line

• Expect two-sided action with dips being bought above 110.2. The path of least resistance over the next 24 hours is a rotation up toward 112.6–113.1. I prefer a patient buy limit at 110,900, targeting 113,100. If momentum accelerates, an extension to ~114,600 is possible, but 113.1 is the probabilistic magnet.