BTC Poised for Breakout Continuation: Buy the Retest Toward 118k

Executive summary

• 24h bias: Moderately bullish continuation with a likely retest of the breakout zone before extending toward 117.6–118.3k.
• Preferred tactic: Buy-the-dip into 116.3–116.6k demand; secondary: breakout add above 117.2k on strong volume.
• Probable 24h range: 115.6k–118.4k (approximate 14‑day ATR context).

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily structure: Since the 8/29 swing low (108.41k) price has carved higher lows (108.81k → 109.25k → 110.65k → 111.53k → 113.96k → 115.41–115.45k) and now a higher high (today’s 116.93k eclipsing 9/12 high 116.77k). That confirms short-term uptrend resumption.
• Intraday (hourly): A sequence of higher highs and higher lows from ~115.05k (09/16 15:00) to 116.93k (20:00), with shallow pullbacks—classic grinding trend. Late session prints near the highs indicate demand into the close.
• Key levels observed in tape: • Support: 116.0–116.1k (hourly shelf), 115.6–115.7k (intraday S/R flip), 115.0–115.2k (prior micro-base), 114.3–114.5k (daily cluster). • Resistance: 116.9–117.2k (fresh breakout area), 117.6–118.0k (micro supply), 118.19k (Fib 61.8%), 119.3–120.2k (August congestion and prior swing highs).

2. Trend and moving averages

• 20‑day SMA (est.): ~114.7–115.1k. Price trades above—bullish bias and room to ride the upper Bollinger band.
• 50‑day SMA (est.): ~115.8–116.2k. Price marginally above—confirms improving medium-term momentum after the late‑August dip.
• Slope: Both 20D and 50D slopes have turned up post 9/10—bullish.
• Hourly EMAs (8/21/55, est.): Price is above and pullbacks are finding support at the 21/55 EMA cluster around 116.2–116.5k—good dip-buy zone.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (est.): ~56–60. Neither overbought nor weak; room to extend before 70+.
• RSI(14) hourly (est.): Mid‑60s, with mild bearish divergence risk if price stalls sub‑117.2k; however trend support remains intact above 116.2–116.5k.
• MACD daily: Bullish cross since ~9/10; histogram positive and rising—supports continuation toward 118k+.
• MACD hourly: Positive but flattening near the highs—signals a likely shallow pullback/retest before continuation.
• Stochastic daily: Rising toward overbought but not crossed down—supports a band‑walk scenario.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~2.0–2.4k. Current day’s range fits within this envelope; a 24h move of ~±1.5–2.0k is probable.
• Keltner Channels (20, 2xATR, est.): Price near upper channel; in trending regimes that’s constructive and often persists.
• Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ, est.): Midline ~114.8–115.1k, upper band ~118.5–118.9k, lower band ~110.7–111.0k. Price sits below but close to the upper band—room to press into 118k without immediate mean‑reversion pressure.

5. Volume and flow

• Daily volume: Rising on up days since 9/10 compared with late‑Aug softness; not blow‑off, suggests sustainable advance.
• OBV (qualitative): Curling higher since 9/10; confirms accumulation.
• Intraday volume profile: High‑volume node 115.7–116.1k; low‑volume pocket 116.7–117.3k implies potential for a swift move once above 116.9–117.0k. Expect liquidity hunts around 116.5k followed by continuation toward 117.8–118.2k.

6. Market geometry and Fibonacci

• Primary swing measured: 8/25 low 110.12k → 8/13 high 123.34k decline, with current retracement rally: • 38.2%: ~115.27k (reclaimed and held). • 50%: ~116.73k (today reclaimed decisively). • 61.8%: ~118.19k (next high‑probability magnet/target).
• Fibonacci extensions (if 118.19k breaks): 1.0 of the counter‑swing would target ~123.3k (not expected within 24h but sets context).

7. Ichimoku overview (daily, qualitative)

• Price above cloud; Tenkan > Kijun; price > Kijun; bullish stack. Cloud forward span likely flat to rising near 115–116k, offering dynamic support on a retest.

8. Pattern recognition

• Ascending triangle/inverse H&S blend: Neckline ~116.7–116.9k; today’s push above suggests measured move path toward 118.5–119.5k. Expect a classic breakout–retest–go pattern; ideal bid on the retest 116.3–116.6k.
• Candles: Today’s daily is a bullish expansion candle with close near high—continuation‑friendly if first pullback is bought.

9. Pivot map (classical, using today’s H/L/C)

• P ≈ 116.26k; R1 ≈ 117.57k; S1 ≈ 115.60k; R2 ≈ 118.23k; S2 ≈ 114.28k; R3 ≈ 119.57k. Our upside target aligns with R2 ≈ 118.23k; first resistance band 117.6k (R1) likely to stall briefly.

10. Donchian/Breakout lenses

• 20‑day Donchian upper near 116.9–117.0k just tagged—fresh breakout signal. Typical behavior is a short retest within 1–3 bars, then continuation toward the next liquidity pocket (118.0–118.3k).

11. Mean‑reversion checks

• 20‑day z‑score of price (est.): +0.6 to +0.9—mildly stretched but not crowded. Supports continuation before reversion likely.

12. Risk management and scenarios

• Base case (60%): Shallow dip to 116.5k ±0.2k, buyers defend, push through 117.2k and probe 117.8–118.3k; fade into close near 117.7–118.0k.
• Bearish alt (25%): Deeper flush to 115.9–116.1k (S1 neighborhood). If reclaimed quickly, still constructive; failure below 115.6k would open 115.0–115.2k test.
• Squeeze extension (15%): Immediate breakout continuation without retest to 117.6k, brief flag, then 118.2–118.4k spike before settling ~117.8k.
• Suggested stop for trade plan (not required by prompt, provided for completeness): 115.62k (below S1/EMA cluster), yielding ~0.9k risk from 116.52k entry; target 118.18k gives ~1.66k reward (R:R ≈ 1.8:1).

13. Corroborating indicators

• ADX(14) daily (est.): ~20–23; indicates trend building but not overextended—fertile for continuation.
• CMF/MFI (qualitative): Positive on recent sessions aligning with OBV—supports buy‑the‑dip.
• VWAP (month‑to‑date, est.): Likely below spot (~112–114k); trading above VWAP favors long bias.

14. Synthesis

• Breakout above 116.7k (50% retrace and Donchian upper) amid rising OBV, positive MACD, and supportive pivot structure argues for a continuation attempt toward the 61.8% retrace at ~118.19k within the next 24 hours.
• Optimal execution exploits the high‑volume node and EMA support around 116.3–116.6k to secure favorable R:R. Should momentum accelerate early, a momentum add above 117.2k is justified, but the primary plan remains buy‑the‑dip.

Prediction for next 24 hours

• Expected path: Retest 116.5k → breakout over 117.2k → test 117.8–118.3k → consolidation 117.6–118.0k.
• Probabilistic range: 115.6k (S1) to 118.4k (near R2/upper band pocket), skewed to the upside.

Conclusion

• Bias: Buy dips. Technical confluence favors a push toward 118.2k after a retest.
• Decision: Buy (Long position).
• Open at: 116,520 on a pullback into the prior breakout/EMA support.
• Close (take profit): 118,180 aligned with R2 and 61.8% retracement magnet.
• Optional risk control (context only): Protective stop ~115,620; adjust if momentum fails to reclaim 116.0k on pullbacks.