BTC: Spring off 23.6% Fib and VWAP Reclaim Setup Targets 116.9k in 24 Hours

Overview and context

• Instrument: Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
• Current price: 115,583.68
• Timeframe coverage: Daily (Jun 20–Sep 17) plus Hourly (Sep 16–17). I analyze multi-timeframe structure (daily trend, 4H/1H microstructure via hourly data), momentum, volatility, volume, and confluence zones to form a 24-hour tactical plan.

1. Price action and market structure Daily

• Structure: After July’s high near 123,092 (Jul 14), BTC retraced through late Aug to lows ~107,560–108,105 (Aug 29–31), then formed a rising sequence of higher lows into Sep. The last 10 sessions show an orderly grind higher, with a strong day on Sep 10–12 and modest consolidation since.
• Current regime: Sideways-to-up. Price is above the 20D SMA and hovering around the 50D SMA, suggesting medium-term accumulation, not a runaway trend.
• Key swing points:
  • Swing high: 117,005 (Sep 16 daily high)
  • Swing low: 107,560 (Aug 29 low)
  • Today’s daily action (Sep 17) shows a dip to ~114,795 intraday followed by recovery toward 115.6k—buying on weakness evident.

Hourly (tactical)

• Overnight push to ~117.2k (05:00–07:00 UTC), then a selloff to 114.8–115.2k around 18:00 UTC, followed by stabilizing bids and a VWAP chase into the US afternoon. Price action shows a liquidity sweep below 115k and immediate absorption.
• Micro-structure: Lower timeframes show a potential higher low versus the Sep 15–16 base when you account for the broader uptrend, despite today’s intraday lower low versus Sep 14–15.

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20D SMA (approx): ~112,440. Price is +2.8% above the 20D, supportive of a mild bullish regime.
• 50D SMA (est.): ~115,000–115,200. Price is fractionally above/at the 50D, implying the medium-term trend is turning up but not extended.
• 100–200D SMA: Not directly computable from visible data; based on broader 2025 bull structure, longer MAs sit materially lower, indicating long-term uptrend intact.
• Takeaway: Price > 20D and ≈50D; no overextension. Pullbacks toward 115k are technically healthy and buyable if supported by other signals.

3. Momentum (RSI, MACD, Stoch) Daily

• RSI(14) (est.): ~56–59. Momentum positive, not overbought; room to run.
• MACD: Positive histogram since early Sep; slope has flattened the last two sessions—typical consolidation after a push.
• Stochastics: Mid-to-upper range, not pinned; potential for a fresh hook-up if price reclaims 116.2–116.8k.

Hourly

• RSI(14): Dipped to low-40s on the 18:00 UTC selloff; rebounding to ~50 area—constructive for a mean-reversion push to VWAP/resistance.
• MACD: Negative through the intraday down-leg; starting to curl upwards—early buy signal if confirmed by a VWAP reclaim.
• Stoch: Rebounded from oversold; supports a near-term pop.

4. Volatility and ranges (ATR, Bollinger)

• Daily ATR(14) (est.): ~2,000–2,300. Implies a 24-hour expected swing of 1.7–2.0% ($2.0–2.3k) around current levels.
• 20D Bollinger Bands (approx):
  • Midline ~112.4k
  • Upper ~118.5k
  • Lower ~106.3k Price sits above the midline, below the upper band—space for a push toward 116.9–117.5k without technical stress.
• Hourly Bollinger: Price tested/briefly pierced the lower band near 115.0–115.3k, now curling—typical setup for a reversion to mid/upper band (116.1–116.7k).

5. Volume, OBV, and flow

• Daily volume: Rising on up-days since Sep 1; neutral-to-lower on consolidation days—accumulation profile.
• OBV (qualitative): Trending higher from Sep 1 lows; today’s selloff saw responsive buying (wicks), keeping OBV trend intact.
• Intraday: Largest volumes printed into the down-leg and the subsequent stabilization, implying absorption by stronger hands near 115k.

6. Support, resistance, and liquidity map

• Supports:
  • 115,200–115,300: Intraday demand re-appeared here repeatedly; near 1H lower band and immediate bid zone.
  • 114,750–114,900: 23.6% Fib retracement cluster (see below) and session low; sweep and reclaim—strong, tactical support.
  • 113,950–114,150: Sep 10 close + historical pivot; next downside magnet only if 114.8 fails.
• Resistances:
  • 115,900–116,200: 1H supply and intraday VWAP neighborhood; first upside test.
  • 116,800–117,300: Prior daily/1H highs; key gate to expand toward 118k.
  • 118,350–118,750: Repeated daily rejection zone; higher timeframe resistance.

7. Fibonacci context (swing Aug 29 low to Sep 16 high)

• Range: 107,560 → 117,005 (∆ = 9,445)
• Retracements from high:
  • 23.6%: 117,005 − 2,231 ≈ 114,774
  • 38.2%: 117,005 − 3,610 ≈ 113,395
  • 50.0%: 117,005 − 4,723 ≈ 112,282
  • 61.8%: 117,005 − 5,842 ≈ 111,163
• Today’s low near 114,795 tagged the 23.6% precisely and bounced—bullish continuation behavior in an up-swing.

8. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price above projected cloud with Tenkan > Kijun recently; Kijun baseline estimated ~114.9–115.2k—aligned with intraday demand. Thin forward cloud suggests limited overhead resistance until 116.8–117.3k.
• Hourly: Price below/at the cloud after the selloff; a cloud reclaim around 116.1–116.3k would signal momentum resumption and likely invite a run to 116.8–117.2k.

9. VWAP and mean reversion

• Intraday VWAP (Sep 17 session): Estimated around 115.9–116.2k given heavy volume into the downdraft. Current price (115.58k) is modestly below VWAP; setups like this often resolve in a VWAP reversion as long as the session low holds.

10. Pattern and candlestick read

• Intraday hammer-type behavior around 18:00–19:00 UTC (long lower shadow, close near highs) following a stop run below 115k. This is often a spring leading to at least a VWAP test, with potential for trend continuation if reclaimed.
• Daily forms a small-bodied candle with lower wick—healthy dip-buying in an up-sloping market.

11. ADX/Trend strength

• Daily ADX (est.): High-teens to low-20s. Trend is present but not strong; price is responsive to support/resistance. Tactical range-trading with bullish bias is effective.

12. Confluence summary

• Bullish:
  • Bounce from 23.6% Fib (114.77k) with absorption.
  • Price > 20D SMA and ≈50D SMA; daily RSI ~57.
  • Intraday at/below VWAP with mean-reversion tailwind.
  • Strong demand at 115.2–115.3k; hourly momentum turning up.
• Bearish/risks:
  • Failure to reclaim 116.2k promptly could prolong chop.
  • Loss of 114.8k would open 113.95k; below that, a deeper 38.2% retrace (~113.4k) risk.

13. 24-hour path probabilities (subjective)

• Base case (60%): VWAP reclaim to 116.1–116.3k, extension to 116.8–117.2k, potential wick to ~116.95–117.2k.
• Bear case (25%): Retest 115.2–115.0k; brief probe 114.8k; holds and reverts to 115.8–116.0k but fails to break higher.
• Tail risk (15%): Clean break below 114.75k leads to a quick slide toward 113.95–114.15k before buyers return.

14. Strategy and execution plan

• Bias: Buy-the-dip inside 115.0–115.3k demand with target into 116.8–117.0k over 24h.
• Optimal entry: 115,300 (limit). This aligns with visible intraday demand, just above the 23.6% Fib shelf.
• Profit objective: 116,950 (below the 117.0–117.3k resistance to increase fill probability). This captures ~1,650 points vs entry.
• Invalidation (for risk framing): A sustained break and hourly close below 114,750 undermines the setup; would step aside or reassess toward 113.95k. (Stop not required in output but crucial for risk control.)

15. Why not short here?

• The market rejected sub-115k prices decisively, and momentum is curling up on intraday frames. Shorting into a 23.6% retrace bounce above the 20D SMA carries negative expectancy unless 114.8k fails.

Conclusion

• Confluence of 23.6% retracement support, VWAP reversion dynamics, positive daily momentum, and steady accumulation favors a tactical long. Expect a push toward 116.9–117.2k in the next 24 hours, with responsive buyers defending 115.2–115.3k on dips.