BTC Coiling Beneath 118k: Ascending Triangle Signals 24‑Hour Breakout Toward 119k

Executive summary

• Market state: BTC is consolidating just below overhead supply at 117.9k–118.2k after a multi-session grind higher from early September. The broader daily trend is up (higher highs/lows since the Aug 29 swing low), while the last 24 hours show a tight range with rising intraday lows, indicating constructive pressure beneath resistance.
• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish. Base case is a continuation breakout toward 118.7k–119.2k after a minor dip or VWAP/Kijun check. Alternate case is a shakeout to 116.7k–116.1k supports before resuming higher.
• Trade idea: Buy (long). Optimal entry on a minor pullback/dip into 117.1k–117.3k; alternate trigger buy on a clean breakout/retest above 117.9k. Primary take-profit in the 118.9k area.

Data context and recent structure

• Daily context (June → mid-Sep):
  • June lows ~101k–103k. Impulse higher into mid-July with a notable expansion day on Jul 10–14 (high to 123k intraday, close near 119.9k) on heavy volume, then range-bound behavior with 117–120k as a pivotal area.
  • August: Two-way chop with a late-month pullback to 108–109k (Aug 29 swing low ~108.41k), followed by a September recovery.
  • September: Sequence of higher lows and a push back over 114–116k. Recent closes: 113.96k (Sep 10) → 115.51k (Sep 11) → 116.10k (Sep 12) → small consolidation → 116.84k (Sep 16) → 116.47k (Sep 17) → 117.58k (Sep 18). This is constructive, with pullbacks shallow and bought.
• Hourly (last 24h):
  • Range 116.2k–117.9k with two tests of the 117.86–117.90k cap (03:00 and 18:00 UTC). Lows stair-stepped up from ~116.36k to ~117.10k to ~117.38k to ~117.48k, forming an ascending triangle under a flat top ~117.86–117.90k. Closing hour printed back at 117.58k.

Trend diagnostics

• Price vs moving averages (daily):
  • 20D SMA (approx): ~112.9k. Price is ~4.6k above (bullish). The slope has turned higher since early September.
  • 50D SMA (approx): mid-114k to 115k region by inspection; price is above (bullish). Short-term trend > intermediate trend.
  • Short-term EMAs (10–21D, qualitative): fast EMAs have crossed above slower EMAs since the Sep 10–12 thrust; ribbon is positively stacked. Pullbacks have respected the 10–21D zone (115.4k–116.3k area).
• Structure: Higher highs/lows off the Aug 29 low; current action is a classic bull consolidation beneath prior supply (117.9–119.1k).

Momentum and oscillator suite

• RSI (daily, qualitative): Sitting in a constructive 55–62 zone (not overbought), providing room for continuation. The steady grind up without extreme readings suggests sustainable trend.
• RSI (hourly, qualitative): Mild bearish divergence from the first to second 117.9k test, but price held higher lows, reducing the edge of the divergence. RSI reset during the midday drift, now neutral to slightly positive.
• MACD (daily): Above signal and likely above zero; histogram positive but not extended. This typically supports trend continuation.
• MACD (hourly): Flattening and modest negative/neutral histogram during the consolidation; consistent with a coil-before-move dynamic. A fresh cross-up on a 117.9k breakout would be a timely trigger.
• Stochastics (hourly, qualitative): Recycled out of overbought during the midday drift; room to turn higher on a fresh push.
• ADX (hourly, qualitative): Trend strength moderate; tightening range suggests energy build-up for the next impulse.

Volatility and range analysis

• Daily ATR(14) (approx): ~1.8k–2.2k. Implies a typical 24h swing sufficient to test the 118.7k–119.2k zone if an upside break occurs, or to revisit ~116k if downside.
• Intraday realized range today: ~1.7k (116.2k to 117.9k). Compression within a rising structure favors expansion.
• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2): Price sits between mid and upper band; bands are modestly opening post-early-Sep squeeze. Room to test the upper band near 119–120k without overextension.

Ichimoku (daily and hourly, qualitative)

• Daily: Price above the cloud; Tenkan > Kijun; Chikou likely above price. Kijun flat region ~115–116k can act as a pullback magnet only if the range fails. Currently, trend context is bullish.
• Hourly: Kijun/Tenkan around 117.3–117.5k acted as intraday balance; repeated taps held. Flat Kijun near 117.4k often serves as a magnet; dips into that zone are attractive for entries.

Market profile, VWAP, and volume reads

• Volume behavior: September upswings (Sep 10–12) printed higher volume than pullbacks, indicating buyers in control. Today’s hourlies show activity clustering around 117.1–117.7k, with rejection above 117.85k but higher lows persist.
• Intraday VWAP (approx): Centered near the 117.4–117.5k area; price oscillated around/above it during NY/EU sessions, signaling balanced-to-bid tone. Buy-the-dip into VWAP has worked repeatedly.
• Visible support/resistance nodes:
  • Demand: 117.10–117.35k (VWAP/Kijun cluster), 116.70–116.75k (hourly shelf), 116.35–116.40k (overnight pivot), then 116.10k and 115.66k (Fib 23.6%).
  • Supply: 117.86–117.90k (flat-top resistance), 118.20–118.30k (local supply pocket), 118.70–118.95k (measured move target), 119.10–119.30k (prior daily pivot).

Fibonacci mapping (Aug 29 low → current swing high)

• Swing low: 108,410 (Aug 29) → swing high: ~117,898 (today’s 03:00/18:00 UTC tests).
• Retracement levels from high:
  • 23.6%: ~115,660 (first structural daily support)
  • 38.2%: ~114,270 (aligns with early-Sep breakout zone)
  • 50%: ~113,155
  • 61.8%: ~112,040
• Extensions from the most recent triangle:
  • Ascending triangle height: ~700–750 points (117.90k top − ~117.15–117.20k base). Breakout projection: 118.60k–118.65k initial. Overshoot with trend and ATR can reasonably tag 118.9k–119.2k.

Pattern recognition

• Ascending triangle on the hourly timeframe:
  • Rising lows: ~117.10k → ~117.38k → ~117.48k
  • Flat lid: 117.86–117.90k
  • Implication: Pressure build under supply; typical resolution is upward in line with the higher-timeframe trend. Measured move favors 118.6k+; trend context supports extensions toward ~118.9k–119.2k.
• Candlestick behavior:
  • A series of small-bodied hourlies with upper wicks into 117.86–117.90k, but bodies now clustering higher. Doji/indecision within an uptrend, often a continuation pattern when lows keep rising.

Cross-method confluence (why the edge is up)

• Trend: Price above 20D/50D averages, higher lows since Aug 29 → bullish structure.
• Momentum: Daily MACD/RSI supportive without overbought extremes → room to push.
• Volatility: Compression plus ATR capacity → sufficient headroom for a 1.2–1.7k advance within 24h.
• Pattern: Ascending triangle beneath well-defined resistance → breakout-prone setup.
• Profile/VWAP: Demand consistently visible around 117.1–117.4k; sellers failed to drive price below VWAP with follow-through.
• Fib and historical pivots: Targets and resistances cluster around 118.6k–119.2k; logical place to harvest profits within a 24h horizon.

Risk factors and alternate paths

• Short-term divergence: Minor hourly bearish divergence could produce a final dip to 117.1k or even 116.7k before lift-off. This would improve entry quality.
• Failure scenario: A decisive rejection and hourly close back below ~116.7k would weaken the triangle and expose 116.1k → 115.66k. That would invalidate the immediate breakout thesis for the 24h window.

Strategy blueprint (24h)

• Primary plan: Buy pullback into 117.1k–117.3k (VWAP/Kijun/ascending base). Target 118.9k. This aligns with buying strength on dips in an uptrend, capturing the triangle measured move plus modest extension.
• Alternate trigger: Momentum buy on a 117.90k breakout with a retest/hold. Same take-profit 118.9k–119.2k; the R:R is thinner but probability improves.
• Time expectation: Breakout attempts are likely during overlapping EU/US sessions when liquidity increases. Expect either an early dip buy that turns higher or a late-session breakout attempt.

Key levels recap

• Supports: 117.10–117.35k (VWAP/Kijun), 116.70–116.75k (hourly shelf), 116.35–116.40k (overnight pivot), 116.10k (daily support), 115.66k (Fib 23.6%).
• Resistances/targets: 117.86–117.90k (breakout trigger), 118.20–118.30k (first supply), 118.60–118.70k (triangle target), 118.90–119.20k (take-profit zone), 120.17k (secondary if momentum overdelivers).

Decision and execution

• Decision: Buy (Long). The weight of evidence across trend, momentum, volatility, and pattern structure favors an upside resolution within the next 24 hours.
• Optimal open price: 117,250 (limit on dip). This sits in the confluence zone of intraday VWAP/Kijun and ascending triangle base, historically showing responsive buying.
• Take-profit (close price): 118,950. Captures the measured move and prior micro-resistance cluster while staying inside one ATR above current price for high fill probability within 24 hours.

Contingency notes (not part of the formal output fields)

• If filled 117,250 and price stalls under 117.90k beyond multiple attempts, consider partial at 118.30k to de-risk and trail remainder toward 118.90k.
• If breakout entry is preferred, acceptable alternate open trigger: 117,920–117,950 on confirmed break/retest; keep the same 118,950 take-profit.