BTC Coils Under 116k Pivot: Inside-Day Squeeze Set to Pop

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish continuation from a tight intraday coil, with a likely topside probe toward 116.9–117.2k if the 116.10–116.20 pivot breaks and holds. Risk of a fakeout remains due to weekend liquidity; downside supports 115.5k then 115.1k.
• Optimal approach: Buy the dip into 115.5–115.7k (prefer 115.62k limit) or buy the breakout on sustained prints above 116.20k. Target into R1 cluster below prior swing highs (≈116.95–117.10k).

Price action and market structure

• Daily context: After a strong upswing from the late-Aug low (108.4–109.3k) to the Sep 18 high (117.14k), Sep 19 printed a wide-range down day (H 117.48k, L 115.14k, C 115.69k), followed by today’s inside day/inside range (so far) around 115.8–116.2k. Inside days at elevated levels often resolve with expansion in the direction of the prevailing trend unless invalidated by a lower low.
• Trend: Higher lows from 108.4k → 109.25k → 110.65k → 111.17k → 112.07k → 113.96k → 115.14k confirm an ascending structure. Higher highs 116.84k → 117.14k keep bulls in control on the daily. Hourly shows a tight range box 115.52–116.18k with repeated tests of the ceiling—typical of a coil before breakout.
• Intraday tape (1h): Multiple small-bodied candles, higher lows, and repeated taps at 116.04–116.18k, with shallow pullbacks to 115.78–115.90k, signal seller absorption just under the pivot. The 20:00–21:00 hour closes near 115.84k keep price within striking distance of resistance without rejection wicks—constructive for a later push.

Key levels (spot ≈ 115,840)

• Supports: 115,780–115,900 (intraday base), 115,500–115,620 (demand shelf/volume node), 115,140–115,200 (Sep 19 low zone/0.236 fib), 114,730 (S1 from pivots), 114,130–114,300 (0.382 fib cluster/daily pivot history), 112,800–113,200 (prior balance).
• Resistances: 116,100–116,200 (daily pivot P and intraday lid), 116,840–117,140 (recent swing highs; R1 ≈ 117,065), 117,500, 118,450 (R2), 119,900–120,200 (psych/round and prior supply).

Pivot points (Classic, based on Sep 19):

• P ≈ 116,103; R1 ≈ 117,065; S1 ≈ 114,727; R2 ≈ 118,441; S2 ≈ 113,766. Current price sits just below P, explaining repeated stalling at 116.10–.20. A reclaim/hold above P usually targets R1 first.

Fibonacci mapping

• Swing: Aug 29 low 108,411 → Sep 18 high 117,137.
• 0.236 ≈ 115,068; 0.382 ≈ 113,805; 0.5 ≈ 112,774; 0.618 ≈ 111,742. The Sep 19 pullback bottomed at 115,142—very shallow (just above 0.236)—consistent with a bullish continuation rather than full mean reversion. Holding above ~115.1k keeps the impulsive structure intact with room to retest 117.1k.

Moving averages

• 7D SMA ≈ 116.12k: Price is fractionally below short-term mean—neutral to slightly corrective within an uptrend.
• 20D SMA ≈ 113.26k: Price is well above the intermediate mean—bullish slope support around 113–114k.
• 50D SMA (approx) ≈ 116–117k given the July strength and August dip: Price is orbiting this band, typical of a consolidation near trend mean before resolution. No clear bearish crossovers evident from the series.
• EMA posture (8/21 daily, qualitative): 8EMA above 21EMA and both sloping up post-early-September rally; price between 8EMA and 21EMA is typical of a bull flag digestion.

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (first-14-period average method): ≈ 74—mildly overbought. Importantly, overbought in an uptrend tends to persist; the risk is more of sideways bleed than sharp reversal unless 115.1k breaks.
• Stochastic (qualitative): Hovering high; on the hourly it has cycled down during range compression, helping reset momentum without material price damage.
• MACD (12/26/9 daily, qualitative): Histogram positive but contracting; signal lines above zero—momentum cooling inside trend, consistent with consolidation under resistance before a fresh push if the pivot flips.
• ADX(14): Low-to-moderate (~20–22 est.). Trend present but not explosive; conditions ripe for a volatility expansion after the inside day.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily ≈ 2.0–2.3k; the last two sessions’ ranges sit near this value. A one-ATR move from here projects to 117.8k topside or 113.8k downside if a full expansion occurs; base case is a partial ATR move given weekend liquidity.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2 daily): Mid ≈ 113.3k; price sits above the mid and within the upper half of the band. Bandwidth has narrowed from late Aug, indicating compression; typical resolution is in the direction of trend unless a catalyst flips it.
• Keltner vs. Bollinger: Price hugging upper Keltner on prior sessions, now oscillating inside—another sign of digestion, not trend failure.

Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price above the cloud; Tenkan near ~116.0k, Kijun near ~114.9k. Today’s price slightly below Tenkan but well above Kijun—typical pullback-to-Tenkan behavior. Span A > Span B and both rising support the bullish bias. Losing Kijun would be the caution trigger.

Volume and participation

• Daily volume has tailed off into the weekend; the Sep 19 pullback did not show follow-through selling the next day. That favors the interpretation of a pause rather than distribution.
• OBV (directional): Rising since early Sep; no clear negative divergence versus price highs.
• Intraday VWAP (approx today): ~115.85–115.90k; price oscillates around VWAP with higher-lows behavior—bullish microstructure if VWAP holds as support on the next dip.

Patterns and setups

• Inside day (ID): Today’s candle sits inside Sep 19’s range—an ID breakout setup. Trigger levels: above 116.18k for long continuation; below 115.49k risks a downside sweep toward 115.1k.
• Ascending triangle (intraday): Flat(ish) top 116.1–116.2k, rising lows 115.6–115.9k; measured move targets ~0.5–0.7% ≈ 600–800 points → 116.7–117.0k on breakout, matching pivot R1.
• Elliott wave (tactical read): Likely minor wave-4 consolidation after the 117.14k wave-3 high; wave-5 test toward 117.5–118.0k if 116.2k clears.
• Wyckoff lens: Re-accumulation atop prior resistance (115–116k) with decreasing volatility; signs of strength would be a clean push through 116.2k and hold above the pivot.

Statistical/structural confluence to the upside

• Break and hold above 116.10–116.20 (daily pivot P) opens path to R1 ≈ 117.07k, which aligns with: recent swing high cluster (116.84–117.14k), intraday ascending triangle measured objective, and a 0.5–0.7 ATR push.

Risk factors and invalidations

• Overbought daily RSI (~74) raises odds of chop/fakeouts; a lower liquidity weekend can magnify whipsaws around the pivot.
• Invalidation for the bullish intraday read is sustained trade below 115.50k; a daily close below ~115.10k would signal a deeper retrace toward 114.1k (0.382 fib) or even 113.8k (S2 zone).

Trade plan logic (next 24 hours)

• Primary plan: Buy the dip into 115.5–115.7k where demand and VWAP cluster. This achieves better R:R, placing risk just below 115.1k while targeting the 116.9–117.1k resistance shelf.
• Alternate trigger: Momentum buy on clean breakout and 15–60 min hold above 116.20k; target 116.95–117.10k first, then trail if momentum expands.
• Why not short here? Despite overbought RSI, structure, moving averages, and shallow retracement favor continuation. Shorting into an ascending, compressing market just under a pivot with nearby R1 is low expectancy unless 115.5k fails convincingly.

Outlook

• Base case probability: 60% topside break to 116.9–117.2k; 30% continued range 115.6–116.2k; 10% downside wash to 115.1–114.7k. Plan favors buying weakness with a target into the R1 cluster.

Summary

• The confluence of (a) ascending daily structure, (b) price holding above the 20D SMA and near Tenkan, (c) an intraday ascending triangle under the 116.1–116.2k pivot, and (d) a shallow 0.236 retrace from the Sep 18 high collectively supports a tactical long. The optimal entry is a dip buy near 115.62k with take-profit just under R1 at 116.95k to front-run supply near prior highs.