BTC Coils at S1 Support: Tactical Long for a VWAP/Pivot Reversion to 116.1k

Multi-timeframe market structure (Daily → 4H → 1H)

• Daily trend: Since the 9/1 rebound off ~107.3k, BTC made a push to 117.9k (9/18) and has since consolidated in a tight 115–117k band. Structure is higher-lows on the daily, but momentum has cooled the last 3 sessions. Today’s price (~115,446) sits near the mid of the recent consolidation and above the early-September breakout region.
• 4H/1H structure: The last 24 hours show a gentle descending micro-channel/descending triangle with a flat support shelf at 115.3–115.4k repeatedly tested. Lower highs from ~115.90 → 115.82 → 115.76 → 115.71 → 115.59 → 115.57 suggest compressing range ahead of a break. Despite the drift, the shelf around 115.35–115.45 has absorbed selling several times, signaling demand.

Key levels and confluences

• Horizontal support: 115,300–115,450 (hourly shelf tested multiple times). Next supports: 115,080 (S2 pivot), 114,450–114,460 (daily swing area from 9/15), 114,270 (9/20–9/21 pivot cluster). Resistance: 115,800 (daily pivot P), 116,120 (R1), 116,500 (R2), 116,750–117,000 (recent supply).
• Daily pivots (derived from 9/20 H/L/C): P ≈ 115,796; S1 ≈ 115,401; S2 ≈ 115,079; R1 ≈ 116,118; R2 ≈ 116,513. Price is trading on/just above S1, often a bounce zone toward P/R1 if S1 holds.
• Fibonacci retracement (swing 9/10 low 110,940 → 9/18 high 117,912; Δ ≈ 6,972): 38.2% ≈ 115,240; 50% ≈ 114,426; 61.8% ≈ 113,612. Current price is hovering only ~200 above the 38.2%—a common corrective target that often produces a response before trend reasserts.

Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily 20-SMA (approx): ~115.7–115.9k. Price is marginally below/near this mean, indicating balanced conditions rather than strong trend. 50-SMA likely sits modestly higher (~116–117k) after July/Aug strength; price slightly below it = neutral-to-mildly bearish bias unless reclaimed.
• 1H 20/50-EMAs: Intraday EMAs are flat-to-down and just above current price; reclaiming the intraday 50-EMA would open a mean-reversion push to the daily pivot.

Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI: ~48–52 (neutral). Pullback from mid-September highs eased overbought conditions; no bearish breakdown signal.
• 1H RSI/Stoch RSI: Intraday prints have been grinding near the lower-mid band while price made equal-to-slightly higher lows vs momentum making higher lows—mild bullish divergence on the second test of ~115.4k supports a bounce.
• MACD (daily): Momentum expansion from early Sept has faded; lines compressing near zero with a small negative histogram—this is consistent with consolidation, not a decisive downtrend. On 1H, histogram shows waning bearish momentum around support.

Volatility regime

• Daily ATR (recent): ~1.7–2.6k (1.5–2.2%). The last three sessions are inside a sub-ATR range; volatility is contracting. Contraction near support elevates breakout/bounce odds within 24h.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): Price near the middle band, band width moderate after recent squeeze-release in mid-Sept. No band ride; mean-reversion to mid/upper band (115.8–116.3k) is favored on hold of S1.
• 1H Bollinger squeeze: Bandwidth tightened during the NY/Sun session; a 1–3 hour expansion likely around the weekly close/Asia open. Squeeze at support skews toward an upside pop if support holds.

Volume, VWAP, and profile reads

• Hourly flows today: Heavier prints occurred on tests lower (19:00–20:00 UTC) without decisive follow-through below 115.4k—a sign of absorption. Subsequent candles show wicks down and closes back above the shelf.
• Day VWAP (approx): ~115.6–115.7k. Price is slightly below VWAP; a reversion to VWAP and daily pivot is the path of least resistance if sellers fail to break 115.3k with volume.
• Market profile/HVN: Repeated trading around 115.7–115.8k in recent sessions creates a high-volume node that can act as a magnet if S1 holds.

Ichimoku check (daily and 4H approximations)

• Kijun-sen likely near 115.6–115.9k given midpoints of the last 26 sessions; Tenkan closer to price. Price near Kijun and within a flat Kumo environment indicates equilibrium. Flat Kijun/Span B often attract price; that aligns with a bounce toward 115.8–116.1k.

Pattern diagnostics

• Micro descending triangle with horizontal demand at 115.3–115.4k. Broadly, these can break lower, but the number of tests without expansion, presence of S1/Fib 38.2, and bullish momentum divergences increase odds of a false-break or upside exit.
• Candlesticks: Series of small-bodied hourly candles with lower wicks around the shelf points to buyer defense. No large bearish engulfing or supply expansion at the lows.

DeMark/exhaustion (heuristic)

• The 1H sequence has printed 7–9 consecutive bars testing the same support region without new momentum lows—typical late-sequence behavior preceding a relief bounce.

Elliott wave framing (tactical)

• From 110.9k to 117.9k (impulsive leg), current chop likely a wave-2/4 style correction with shallow depth (~38.2%). If correct, next 24h bias is a minor wave higher toward 116.1–116.5k before larger decisions at 116.8–117k supply.

Probabilistic pathing (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): S1/Fib 38.2% zone holds; mean-reversion to P/VWAP at 115.8k, extension to R1 ~116.12k, with possible stretch to 116.5k (R2) if momentum expands post-Asia open.
• Bear case (40%): Clean break and hourly close below 115.30k with rising volume triggers a slide to 115.08k (S2). If that fails to hold, 114.45–114.27k becomes the next high-probability demand. This scenario likely requires a volatility impulse around the weekly close or early Monday macro flows.

Risk-reward and trade construction

• Longs initiated close to 115.35–115.45 have asymmetric reward to 115.80/116.12 first targets with a tactical risk below 115.08 (S2) or 114.95 to avoid wick hunts. That’s roughly +350 to +700 upside vs ~300–450 downside near-term—acceptable R:R for a 24h swing.
• Confirmation triggers: Reclaim and hold above 1H 50-EMA and day VWAP (~115.6–115.7k) improve odds of reaching 116.1–116.5k. Momentum flip on 1H MACD cross would add confluence.

Conclusion and 24h call

• The confluence of S1 pivot support, 38.2% Fib retrace, repeated absorption at 115.3–115.4k, VWAP magnet above, and subtle bullish divergence favors a tactical long for a push toward 116.1k within the next 24 hours. Bears need a decisive break below 115.30k with volume to invalidate. I lean Buy with a limit near the shelf and target near R1.

Trade plan

• Action: Buy (Long) on a minor dip/at-market around 115,420–115,450.
• Target (24h): 116,120 (R1). Optional stretch target: 116,500 if momentum accelerates.
• Risk note (not part of order fields): Consider a protective stop ~114,950–115,080, depending on tolerance, to protect against a triangle breakdown.