Sell the Rip: 113k Supply Likely to Cap BTC Before a Push Toward 111k

Executive summary of the next 24 hours

• Base case (60%): Weak bounce into 112.8–113.3 is sold; price rotates back toward 111.0–111.3, potentially probing 110.7–110.9 if momentum accelerates. Trend bias remains down on intraday and daily timeframes.
• Alternative (30%): Immediate drift lower from current levels into 111.3–111.0 support, shallow rebound to 112.3–112.6, and further chop in a tight 1.0–1.5k band.
• Low probability squeeze (10%): A stronger-than-expected short-covering rally clears 113.3–113.6, extends to 114.0–114.2, where sellers likely reassert.

Context and market structure (multi-timeframe)

• Higher time frame (daily/weekly):
  • From the mid-August swing high (124.46k intraday on Aug 14, 123.68k on Aug 13), BTC has carved a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, resolving into a broad 108.0k–118.0k distribution. Recent closes clustered 115–117k broke lower on Sep 22–23 toward 112k, re-engaging the bottom third of the range.
  • Key structural levels:
    • Resistance/supply: 113.0–113.3k (intraday supply shelf), 114.0k (Fib 38.2% of the late Aug → mid-Sep upswing), 115.3–116.1k (daily cluster/Ichimoku base), 117.1–117.9k (swing highs/pivot supply).
    • Support/demand: 111.5k (Fib 61.8% confluence), 111.0–110.8k (psych/volume shelf), 110.1k (Aug 25 close pivot), 108.4–107.6k (late-Aug swing lows, measured-move target if breakdown extends).
• Intraday (hourly 9/22–9/23):
  • Lower highs and lower lows dominate, with a failed breakout above 113.3k and repeated acceptance under 113.0k. The 17:00–20:00 UTC push down to 111.57k established the session low; the bounce back to ~111.97k remains inside the intraday down channel.

Price action and candlesticks

• Daily: Sep 22 posted a wide red body closing near lows (bearish pressure, elevated volume). Sep 23 (in progress) shows a lower high/lower low day with a small real body near the lower third of the range—continuation bias unless reclaimed above 112.9–113.1k.
• Hourly: Multiple small-bodied candles around 112.8–113.2k show supply; 17:00–20:00 UTC had decisive bearish real bodies confirming momentum. The latest bounce lacks range expansion, consistent with a bear flag on lower timeframes.

Moving averages (trend gauges)

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~113.8k. Price at 112.0k sits below the 20-SMA; slope has rolled down in the last few sessions.
• 50-day SMA (approx): ~115–116k. Price below, with 20 < 50, reinforcing a medium-term consolidation-to-down bias.
• 200-day SMA (directional anchor, est.): Still below spot, consistent with a longer-term uptrend but not relevant for next 24h timing.
• Intraday EMAs (hourly): Price below falling 20/50-EMA on H1; pullbacks to the 50-EMA are getting sold—momentum trend intact.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI (daily, est. 14): ~42–45, down from mid-50s last week. No bullish divergence vs. price on the daily; room exists for further downside before oversold.
• RSI (hourly, est.): Low-to-mid 40s; mild positive divergence vs. the immediate 111.57k low is tentative and needs 113.0k reclaim to matter.
• Stochastic (daily, est.): Dropping into 20–30 zone; can stay low in a down move—signals favor shorting bounces rather than knife-catching.

MACD

• Daily MACD: Bearish crossover likely registered around Sep 17–19; histogram negative and expanding slightly—supports continuation.
• Hourly MACD: Below zero; shallow upticks on the bounce lack follow-through—consistent with countertrend noise.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~2.3–2.8k. Expect typical 24h travel of 2–3k. Current session range (~1.75k so far) sits below ATR, leaving room for another push (likely lower) or a late-day expansion.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band near ~113.8k; lower band roughly ~110.0–110.5k. Price is in the lower half of the envelope; proximity to the lower band favors mean reversion bounces that are typically sold while below the mid-band.
• Keltner Channels (est.): Price outside/near lower KC earlier in the day—momentum trend present.

Ichimoku Cloud (daily, approximations)

• Tenkan (~9-period mid): ~114.7k; Kijun (~26-period mid): ~115.5k. Spot below both, indicating bearish alignment.
• Span A/B (projected cloud): ~115–118k resistance zone. Any rally into this area likely meets supply.

Fibonacci and measured moves

• Swing measured: Aug 29 low (107.56k) to Sep 18 high (117.91k):
  • 38.2% = ~113.96k (acted as pivot on Sep 10 close).
  • 50% = ~112.74k (Sep 22 close ~112.75k, key pivot now overhead).
  • 61.8% = ~111.52k (today’s intraday low 111.57k tagged this).
  • 78.6% = ~109.77k (next deep-retrace magnet if 111.5/111.0 breaks).
• Interpretation: First test of 61.8% often bounces; however, the failure to reclaim 112.7–113.0 weakens bounce potential and leaves room for a second test or brief undercut into 111.0/110.8 before a firmer reaction.

Support/resistance (confluence map)

• Resistance:
  • 112.7–113.3k: Intraday supply, 50% retrace, multiple hourly rejections; first sell zone.
  • 114.0–114.2k: 38.2% retrace area; daily mid-band vicinity—sell the pop if reached.
  • 115.3–116.1k: Thick daily cluster, Kijun/Tenkan zone; strong cap within 24h unless a squeeze unfolds.
• Support:
  • 111.5k: 61.8% Fib; first-line demand already probed.
  • 111.0–110.8k: Psychological and volume shelf support.
  • 110.1k: Prior daily pivot and monthly node; strong if revisited quickly.

Volume, OBV, and participation

• Volume spiked on Sep 22’s selloff (70B+), suggesting initiative sellers. Today’s turnover remains elevated but not climactic, implying no clean capitulation yet. OBV (conceptually) is drifting lower since the mid-Sep highs—distribution bias intact.
• Volume-at-price impression: A shelf around 112.7–113.2k (recent POC) now sits overhead; acceptance below implies it flips to resistance.

VWAP perspectives

• Month-to-date VWAP (est.): ~114.5–115.0k; spot below implies negative skew.
• Session VWAP (intraday, 9/23): Price has traded below most of the session’s VWAP bands—sell rallies toward VWAP favored.

Pattern diagnostics

• Short-term descending channel on H1 with rejections at the upper boundary near 112.9–113.2k.
• Micro bear flag structures post-17:00 UTC breakdown.
• A loose H&S top from Sep 13–18 with a neckline loosely around 112.7–113.0k is arguable; the break/hold below the neckline favors a measured push toward 110.8–110.0k on a 24–48h horizon.

Risk factors and invalidation

• Immediate invalidation for the short bias: Hourly acceptance above 113.3k and a push through 113.6k, opening 114.0–114.2k.
• Bearish continuation invalidation (strong): Daily close back above 114.0k would shift posture to neutral/mean-revert long for 115.3–116.0k.
• Downside extension trigger: A decisive hourly close below 111.5k followed by failure to reclaim 112.0k—targets 111.0 then 110.8/110.1k.

Trading plan logic (next 24h)

• Strategy selection: Short the rip.
  • Rationale:
    • Multi-timeframe trend is down (20-SMA < 50-SMA, price under both; H1 downtrend intact).
    • Overhead confluence at 112.9–113.3k (intraday supply + 50% Fib + local POC).
    • Momentum and MACD favor continuation; RSI is not yet deeply oversold on daily, allowing another leg lower.
    • ATR supports a 1.9–2.0k move within 24h.
• Execution zone: 112.9–113.1k limit sell. If price spikes into 113.6k, that’s the last line to fade with tight risk; but optimal entry is 112.9k.
• Profit target: 111.0k (first major demand cluster, psychological round number, near daily lower envelope).
• Optional stretch: 110.8k if momentum persists; but 111.0k is the prudent exit within 24h.
• Risk control (for completeness): A tactical stop would sit above 113.6k (hourly invalidation), delivering ~700–800 risk for ~1,900 reward (RR ~2.4–2.7). Not required by prompt but important to note.

Statistical/conditional outlook

• Expected 24h range: 110.6k–113.4k.
• Path probability:
  • 60%: Tag 112.9–113.3k then rotate to 111.0–110.8k.
  • 30%: Drift to 111.0 then backfill to 112.3–112.6 (no fill of ideal short, range day).
  • 10%: Squeeze above 113.6 to 114.0–114.2; sell zone for more patient shorts on a 48h horizon.

Why not buy the dip here?

• While 61.8% at 111.5k often produces a bounce, the failure to reclaim 112.7–113.0k intraday weakens the bull case. With daily momentum rolling over, mean-reversion longs have narrower profit windows and poorer structural support until the 111.0–110.8k area is properly tested or a daily close reclaims 114.0k.

Bottom line

• The weight of evidence favors fading rallies into 112.9–113.3k with a target near 111.0k over the next 24 hours. Probability-weighted outcomes, trend alignment, and ATR dynamics support the short-the-rip setup.