Bear Flag Below the Neckline: Short the Pop Into 110k, Aim for 108.3k

Comprehensive multi‑method technical read on BTC/USD (as of 2025‑09‑26 21:00 UTC)

1. Market overview and context

• Regime shift: BTC sold off sharply on 2025‑09‑25 (daily close 109,049), breaking a multi‑week 112–117k balance. Today (09‑26) price is consolidating just above 109k after failing to reclaim 110.3k intraday. The session shows lower highs and persistent supply on upticks.
• Current price: 109,359.84. Day’s intraday range (from hourly): 108,884–110,340. Weekly trajectory: lower from 117k area into 109k with expanding volume on down days.

2. Price action structure (multi‑timeframe)

• Daily structure: Lower high sequence after the mid‑Sep peak (117.9k on 09‑18). Breakdown below the 112.7k neckline (see H&S note) led to an impulsive leg into 109k. Yesterday’s candle was a wide‑range bearish day with close near lows—textbook distribution bar. Today printed an inside‑ish day versus yesterday’s range with failed reclaim of 110k: classic bear‑flag/consolidation below broken support.
• 4h/1h structure: A series of lower highs: 110.34k (18:00), 109.90–110.00k supply, with defended support 108.88–109.10k. The 1h shows a tight consolidation channel 109.1–109.9k after the selloff, slanted slightly upward (bear flag). Failure swings: every push into 109.8–110.3k sells quickly.
• Key levels from the tape: • Resistance: 110.34k (today’s high), 110.8–111.2k (broken support cluster from early Sep, now supply), 112.0–112.7k (neckline/supply wall). • Support: 108.88k (today’s low), 108.41k (08‑29 swing low), 108.10k (08‑31 swing low), 107.44k (08‑30 area), 106.76k/105.27k (early Jul).

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20‑day SMA (approx): ~114.5–115k. Price is ~5–6k below—decisively bearish short‑term trend.
• 50‑day SMA (approx): ~115–116k. Price below—bearish intermediate trend.
• 5/9/21‑EMA stack (intraday): Bearish alignment on 1h/4h (fast MAs below slower, all below VWAP). Rallies into 21‑EMA on 1h have been sold.
• Slope and distance: Price stretching below 20‑SMA expanded yesterday; today’s sideways action is typical of a pause within a down leg rather than a reversal.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI (14) estimate: mid‑30s to high‑30s after the breakdown. Not deeply oversold (<30) yet; room for further downside before a stronger mean reversion impulse.
• 1h RSI: oscillating 40–55 during the flag, showing muted bull momentum; bear control on pushes to 60 gets capped near 110k.
• MACD (daily): Bearish cross likely occurred around 09‑19; histogram negative and expanding into 09‑25, with only a small contraction today—consistent with a bear pause/flag.
• StochRSI (1h/4h): Kissing midline with frequent failures to embed above 0.8—momentum does not sustain north of resistance bands.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est): ~1.8–2.2k. Expectation for next 24h range: roughly 1.6–2.4k. Given compression today after a large bar, a continuation move of ~1.5–2.0k is plausible.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Midline ~20‑SMA (~114.5k). Lower band ~110–111k; price has spent two sessions below/at the lower band with a minor mean‑reversion attempt today that failed beneath the band mid‑area—classic band‑walk behavior in downtrends.

6. Ichimoku (daily and 4h, qualitative)

• Daily: Price below Tenkan and Kijun; cloud above and thick (115–117k region). Bearish signal stack: price < Tenkan < Kijun, lagging span likely encountering price congestion from early Sep—downtrend context.
• 4h: Price below cloud, Tenkan ~109.7–109.9k capping intraday; Kijun ~110.6–110.9k aligning with supply. Any spikes into 110.6–111.0k are likely to meet offers unless a regime shift occurs.

7. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Daily volume: Spike on 09‑25 (75.5B) vs prior days—a distribution impulse. Today’s volume lighter and uneven intraday, consistent with a consolidation day post‑break.
• OBV (qualitative): Downtrend from 09‑22; no positive divergence evident at today’s lows.
• Intraday prints: Upticks into 109.9–110.3k faced swift supply; downside wicks shallow—sellers hitting bids, buyers not aggressive.

8. VWAP and anchored reference points

• Session VWAP (intraday) likely ~109.6–109.8k; price oscillated below/around it with rejections above—bearish intraday skew.
• Anchored VWAP from the breakdown day (09‑25) approximates ~110.0–110.2k; today’s high (110.34k) slightly overshot then rejected. This AVWAP acts as a dynamic lid.

9. Fibonacci mapping

• From 08‑29 low 108.41k to 09‑18 high 117.91k (Δ=9.50k): • 61.8%: 112.04k (broken). • 78.6%: 110.44k (tested/rejected today). • 88.6%: 109.49k (we are hovering here). • Full retrace target: 108.41k.
• The rejection at 78.6% and stall at 88.6% favors a completion to the 100% retrace near 108.4k.

10. Pattern recognition

• Head‑and‑Shoulders (daily): Left shoulder early Sep (~115–116k), head mid‑Sep (~117.9k), right shoulder mid‑Sep (~116–117k). Neckline ~112.7k (09‑21/09‑24 lows). Clean breakdown on 09‑25 with volume. Measured move: head (117.9) − neckline (112.7) ≈ 5.2k; neckline break projects to ~107.5k. Initial target cluster 108.4–108.1k aligns with Fib and prior swing lows; extension to ~107.5k is in play if momentum persists.
• Bear flag (1h): Pole 112.5k→109.0k (~3.5k) then flag 109.1–109.9k. Breakdown sub‑109.1k would target ~107.4–107.6k on measured move, overlapping H&S objective.

11. Market profile/volume profile (qualitative)

• High‑volume nodes (HVN): 111–113k (now overhead supply).
• Low‑volume pocket: 109.1–110.4k; price skews quickly through this region; resistance efficiency near 110–110.4k is high.
• Value migration: Downward from 112–113k toward 109k; unless recaptured, the path of least resistance remains lower toward 108.4k HVN from late Aug.

12. Elliott Wave sketch (heuristic)

• Wave 1 down: 117.9k→112.7k (09‑18 to 09‑22).
• Wave 2 up: 112.7k→116.8k (09‑16/17 to 09‑18).
• Wave 3 down: 116.8k→109.0k (into 09‑25).
• Wave 4 flat/flag: 109.0k→110.3k (today).
• Prospective Wave 5 down: targets 107.5–108.0k, completing a 5‑wave sequence aligning with pattern/objective confluence. Invalidation for this micro‑count above 110.9–111.2k (overlap into prior wave 1 territory and reclaim of supply).

13. Probabilistic scenario map (next 24h)

• Bearish continuation (55%): Drift/test lower, break 109.1k leading to 108.4k first target; extension wicks to 107.8–107.5k possible if liquidity thin over weekend onset.
• Range‑bound (25%): Maintain 108.9–110.3k, whipsaw around VWAP; closes near 109.3–109.8k by E+24h.
• Bull squeeze (20%): Quick squeeze through 110.34k toward 110.8–111.2k supply, then likely fade unless strong follow‑through volume emerges. Sustained hold above 111.2k would neutralize the short‑term bear view.

14. Risk gauge and invalidation

• Primary invalidation for shorts: Sustained acceptance above 110.8–111.2k (prior support turned resistance cluster, Kijun/AVWAP confluence). A firm 4h close >111.2k would imply a move toward 112.0–112.7k and potentially 113.3k, reducing edge for shorts.
• Support of interest: 108.88k (intraday pivot), 108.41k (08‑29 low). A decisive break/hold below 108.4k opens a fast path to 107.5k.

15. Synthesis

• Trend: Down on daily and 4h; intraday bear‑flagging.
• Momentum: Bearish with room to extend; not yet washed out.
• Location: Trading at/under the 88.6% retrace with failed reclaim of 78.6%—bearish.
• Volume: Breakdown day high volume, consolidation day lighter—classic continuation setup.
• Confluence: H&S target, flag measured move, Fib completion, AVWAP resistance, MA/Ichimoku all aligned lower.

Next 24h bias and path

• Baseline expectation: A minor pop into 109.8–110.1k meets supply; failure leads to break of 109.1k and probe of 108.4k. Intraday downside tails could print 107.8–107.5k before mean‑reverting back toward ~108.8–109.2k by the end of 24h. Net directional bias: lower.

Trading plan derived from the above

• Trade type: Short (Sell) into strength near resistance, in line with trend and AVWAP/MA caps.
• Optimal entry zone: 109.8–110.0k (limit sell), where rejection has repeatedly occurred.
• Take‑profit objective: First target 108.4k (Fib 100% + Aug swing low); conservative cover slightly above at ~108.3k to account for front‑running.
• (Not required but prudent) Risk guard: Invalidation above 110.8–111.2k cluster; a hard stop near 110.8k would preserve a ~1.5–1.8k risk for ~1.5–1.9k reward to 108.3–108.1k, with potential runner to 107.6k improving R:R.

Conclusion

• Given the multi‑indicator confluence favoring continuation lower and the clear, nearby resistance for asymmetric entry, the higher‑probability play for the next 24 hours is a tactical short on a bounce into ~109.9–110.0k, targeting a completion of the retrace to ~108.4k (cover earlier at ~108.3k for fill probability).