BTC poised for a relief pop: Buying the coil at lower band support toward 111k

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical read on BTC/USD for the next 24 hours

1. Market structure and trend context (Daily)

• Price regime: Since the 9/18 swing high (117,137), BTC has been in a short-term downtrend with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows: 9/22 low 112,749 → minor bounce 9/24 113,329 → sharp sell 9/25 to 109,049. The last two sessions (9/26–27) are inside the 9/25 wide-range bar, signaling balance after a liquidation move.
• Range location: Current 109,446 sits near the lower third of the 9/18–9/25 swing range and just above the 8/29–9/1 congestion base (108,4–109,0), a tactically important support shelf.
• Pattern take: 9/25 produced a large bearish body (close near the low). 9/26 formed an inside day with a small up close; 9/27 (so far) is an inside day within 9/26. Consecutive inside days after a range expansion often precede a volatility expansion; given proximity to support and a completed 5-wave decline (see Elliott below), odds mildly favor a reflexive bounce before any further trend continuation.

2. Key levels (spot-driven, clustering across methods)

• Immediate supports: 109,050 (9/25 close/low zone), 108,730 (9/26 low), 108,410–108,240 (8/29–8/31 lows). Deeper: 107,970 (daily S2 pivot), 107,271 (9/1 low), 106,760 (6/30 low).
• Near-term resistances: 109,600 (pivot), 110,360 (9/26 high), 110,470 (R1), 111,200–111,230 (R2 / early Sep swing), 112,545 (8/28 close), 113,330 (9/24 high), 114,040–114,275 (Fib 61.8% and 8/20 close).
• Liquidity zones: 109,2–109,5 (today’s micro-composite), 110,9–111,2 (prior supply shelf and R2 cluster), 112,1–113,1 (Fib 38.2–50% retrace cluster from 9/18→9/25 swing).

3. Moving averages (trend bias gauges)

• 20D SMA ≈ 113,97 (approx). Price is ~4% below it; bearish short-term bias, but also a mean-reversion magnet.
• 50D SMA ≈ mid-115s (approx). Price below; medium-term bias still down.
• Tactical read: Being at/below lower Bollinger and below 20D/50D suggests the primary tactical edge is fade-the-move (countertrend bounce) rather than chasing shorts at support—unless support breaks cleanly.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): estimated high-30s/low-40s after the 9/25 washout; that’s weak but not deeply oversold—consistent with a bearish trend nearing a bounce zone.
• Hourly RSI(14): hovering mid-40s to ~50 through the day—a balanced state, ready to tilt with the next impulse.
• MACD (daily): below signal with negative histogram since mid-September; histogram likely contracting over the last two sessions, hinting at bearish momentum slowing. A small mean-reversion pop would be consistent with a near-term histogram uptick.
• Stochastics (daily): near/just out of oversold, supportive of a bounce attempt but not a trend reversal on its own.

5. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20D): Mid ≈ 113,97; lower band estimated ≈ 109,3–109,6 given recent volatility. Price is riding the lower band since 9/25, a classic location for short-term snaps back toward the mean, provided support holds.
• ATR(14) Daily: ~2,200 (approx). Expect typical next-day range ≈ ±1–1.5% around the session VWAP unless a catalyst triggers expansion.
• Keltner Channels: 9/25 candle likely closed outside the lower KC; re-entry 9/26–27 favors a short-term mean-reversion push.

6. Ichimoku (daily)

• Price < Cloud; Tenkan < Kijun; Span A < Span B. Full bearish configuration. Kijun likely sits ~114 area; in bearish regimes, rallies into the Kijun are short opportunities. Near-term, a snapback toward 112–114 is plausible before sellers re-assert.

7. Fibonacci mapping (9/18 high → 9/25 low)

• Swing = 117,137 → 109,049; Δ ≈ 8,088.
• 38.2% = 109,049 + 3,089 ≈ 112,138.
• 50% = 113,093.
• 61.8% = 114,047.
• These retracement levels stack well with horizontal supply at 112.1–114.1, defining natural upside targets in a corrective bounce.

8. Volume analytics

• 9/25: Elevated sell volume (≈75.5B) on the breakdown—potential capitulation or strong distribution. 9/26 eased (≈57.7B). 9/27 intra-day quieter (weekend effect). Post-liquidation stabilization often precedes a bounce to test overhead supply.
• OBV (qualitative): Down from 9/18; flat-to-slightly rising the last two sessions, consistent with absorption at support.

9. VWAP and market profile

• Today’s session VWAP (hourly set) sits near ≈ 109,5. Price has oscillated around VWAP all day, showing balanced order flow.
• Weekly VWAP likely above spot (~110s), reinforcing the idea that 110–111 is a magnet on bounce attempts, with sell programs expected above 111.

10. Candlestick and pattern diagnostics

• 9/25: Wide-range bear bar, minimal lower wick—trend continuation signal.
• 9/26: Inside day with small up-close—a pause.
• 9/27: Another inside day (so far) with compressed hourly ranges—coil dynamics. Coils near support tend to break in the direction of the prior impulse more often than not, but given the capitulation tone of 9/25 and band location, the near-term odds skew slightly toward a relief pop before any renewed selling.

11. Elliott Wave (tactical count)

• A plausible 5-wave decline from 9/18: • W1 to ~115.7 (9/19), W2 to ~116.2 (9/20), W3 to ~112.8 (9/22), W4 to 113.3 (9/24), W5 to 109.0 (9/25).
• If that read holds, a corrective ABC toward 38.2–50% of the last downswing (≈112.1–113.1) is the path of least resistance over the next 1–3 sessions, with the first 24h likely targeting 110.5–111.2.

12. Pivot levels for 9/27 session (derived from 9/26 H/L/C)

• Pivot P ≈ 109,600.33.
• R1 ≈ 110,471.69; R2 ≈ 111,230.55; R3 ≈ 112,101.90.
• S1 ≈ 108,841.16; S2 ≈ 107,970.11; S3 ≈ 107,211.24.
• Spot 109,446 is just under P; pushes above P open the door to R1 (110,47) then R2 (111,23). Below S1 (108,84) increases risk of a drive to 108,0–107,9.

13. Intraday microstructure (last 24h hourly tape)

• Tight 109,3–109,7 range with repeated reversion to ~109,5; minor higher lows into US afternoon, but no decisive momentum. That’s classic equilibrium. Minor liquidity pockets show bids around 109,25–109,35 and offers near 109,65–109,75. A rotation higher typically seeks the next supply node at 110,3–110,5 and then 110,9–111,2.

14. Scenario framework for next 24 hours

• Base case (≈55%): Mean-reversion bounce from 109,2–109,4 to 110,5–111,2. Rationale: lower Bollinger tag + inside-day coil + completed 5-wave dip + balance around VWAP.
• Bear extension (≈35–40%): Clean break below 108,8 triggers 108,0–107,9 (S2) test; further extension possible to 107,2. Rationale: prevailing downtrend, below MAs, weekend illiquidity.
• Low-probability spike (≈5–10%): Quick squeeze through 111,2 → 112,1. Would likely stall into the 38.2% retrace cluster with sellers reloading.

15. Trade plan and risk management (tactical, 24h horizon)

• Bias: Tactical long for a relief move into resistance, with tight invalidation below 108,7–108,8.
• Optimal entry: Scale-in on a minor dip to 109,30 ± 0,10 (near today’s micro-bid zone and under pivot P).
• Targeting: • Primary take-profit: 110,95 (captures the 110,9–111,2 supply shelf ahead of R2). • Secondary stretch (if momentum robust): trail toward 111,20–111,25, but bank core before R2.
• Suggested stop (not required but prudent): 108,68 (below S1 and the 8/30–9/1 cluster), risk ≈ -0.57% vs reward ≈ +1.51% → R:R ≈ 2.6:1.
• Management: If price reclaims pivot 109,60 with rising 1h RSI>50, tighten stop to breakeven; if rejection at 110,36/110,47, take partials and trail.

16. Forecast summary

• Expect a drift higher into 110,5–111,0 over the next 24 hours, provided 108,8 holds on any dip. The path of least resistance near-term is a relief rally into overhead supply, after which the broader downtrend may re-assert early next week unless 112.1–113.1 is reclaimed and held.

Decision logic and confidence

• Decision: Buy.
• Confidence: Moderate (balanced order flow at support, multiple confluences for a bounce), tempered by the prevailing daily downtrend. A hard break of 108,8 invalidates the long and favors immediate trend continuation toward 108,0/107,2.