BTC set for a Sunday squeeze into 112k — then a fade back to 110k

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Mildly bearish mean-reversion after an extended intraday push. Expect a liquidity probe into 111.8–112.5k, then rotation lower toward 110.2–109.8k.
• Plan: Wait for a pop into 112.2–112.4k to open a short. Target 110.2k within 24h. Invalidation above 112.95–113.30k (prior HVN/Fibo confluence).

1. Market regime and structure (Daily)

• Regime: Sideways-to-down since the Aug 13 high (~123.3k). A sequence of lower highs with a recent local low on Sep 25 (~109.05k). Current close 110,843 is below key moving averages, so HTF is still corrective.
• Range context: Aug high 123,344 → Sep 25 low 109,049 (range ≈ 14,295). Current price sits beneath the 23.6% Fibo retrace at ~112,423 and well below the 38.2% at ~114,510, implying rallies toward 112.4–114.5k are sell zones unless reclaimed with strong breadth.
• Candles: Sep 25 was a wide red day; Sep 26–27 built a base ~109.2–110.0k; Sep 28 printed a constructive green day closing near the highs but still under key resistance (112.0–112.5k). This often invites a squeeze into resistance followed by mean reversion if higher time frame trend is down.

2. Trend and moving averages

• 9-day EMA (est.): ~112.0k. Price at 110.84k is still below; a tag from underneath is typical fade territory.
• 20-day SMA (est.): ~114.0–114.5k. 50-day SMA (est.): ~115.5–116.0k. Bearish alignment (price < 20 < 50), confirming corrective trend.
• Conclusion: Short-term rallies into the 9EMA/0.236 Fibo (~112.0–112.4k) are statistically favorable for fades while the 20/50 SMAs cap price.

3. Momentum (Daily and Hourly)

• Daily RSI(14): Improving off lows but still sub-50 (est. 42–46). Momentum recovery but not a full regime shift.
• Daily MACD: Below zero with flattening histogram—early signs of mean-reversion bounce, not a confirmed uptrend.
• Hourly RSI: Pushed up with today’s advance; likely 60–70 region after the late-session run. Room for one more push into resistance, then risk of exhaustion.
• Stochastics: Daily rising from oversold; Hourly nearing overbought—consistent with a near-term pop and fade.

4. Volatility and ATR

• Daily ATR(14) (est.): ~2.5–3.0k. A 24h swing of ~2k is plausible. A move from 112.3k down to ~110.2k fits within one ATR and aligns with the thesis.

5. Volume, OBV, VWAP

• Volume: Today’s hourly profile showed increasing activity into 19:00–20:00 UTC as price expanded to 110.97k, signaling a momentum burst.
• VWAP (today, est.): ~110.2–110.4k. Price held above session VWAP late-day, typical for continuation into nearby resistance at next session open before reversion.
• OBV (qualitative): Stabilizing after late-September distribution; not yet trending higher on daily.

6. Bollinger Bands (Daily)

• With a 20SMA near ~114k, lower band likely ~110–111k. Today’s bounce is a classic lower-band mean reversion. A further rally to mid-band region (~SMA) is unlikely without reclaiming 112.4k first; thus, the 112.0–112.5k pocket is prime resistance.

7. Ichimoku (Daily, qualitative)

• Price below Kijun and below/at the cloud base; lagging span likely under price/cloud. The system remains bearish/slack. Kijun often sits near 114–115k—well above current price—supporting sell-the-rip.

8. Fibonacci map (Aug 13 high → Sep 25 low)

• 23.6%: ~112,423 (near 9EMA and recent daily supply). Key first resistance.
• 38.2%: ~114,510 (aligns with 20SMA zone). Secondary resistance.
• 50%: ~116,197 (major supply and 50SMA proximity).
• 61.8%: ~117,883 (strong sell area if reached).

9. Support/Resistance and Market Profile zones

• Immediate supports: 110.35k (intraday VWAP cluster), 109.70k (recent base), 109.05k (cycle low, strong).
• Resistances: 111.2k (recent intraday stalls), 112.0–112.5k (0.236 Fibo + 9EMA + prior daily closes/HVN), 113.3k (Sep 24 close), 114.5k (Fibo 38.2%/20SMA).
• Value Areas: Heavy historical volume between 112–114k; expect supply to re-emerge on first test.

10. Pivots (classical) using Sep 27 H/L/C

• P ≈ 109,535; R1 ≈ 109,926; R2 ≈ 110,169; R3 ≈ 110,560; S1 ≈ 109,291; S2 ≈ 108,901. Today exceeded R3 to 110,816—an “extended” day. Typical next-session behavior is reversion toward P/R1 unless trend transition occurs. This favors fading strength.

11. Intraday (Hourly) micro-structure (Sep 28)

• Sequence: Higher lows from ~14:00 UTC onward; breakouts through 110.06 and 110.39; final push to 110.97 with close 110.84. Structure permits a continuation squeeze into 111.6–112.4 early in next session (Asia open liquidity), then likely supply response.
• Liquidity cues: Weekend liquidity is thinner; Sunday→Monday Asia open can produce stop runs above obvious levels (111.2/111.6) before reversing.

12. Scenario pathing (next 24h)

• Base case (60%): Squeeze to 111.8–112.4k, reject, rotate to 110.2k; possible spike lows 109.8–109.6k if momentum fades.
• Bearish drift (30%): Fail to break 111.2k; grind lower from open to 110.0–109.7k without tagging 112k. In this case, a patient sell-the-bounce remains valid; avoid chasing lows.
• Squeeze continuation (10%): Clean reclaim >112.5k and hold above 112.95k; then test 113.3k and possibly 114.5k. This would invalidate the short idea and suggest standing aside or flipping bias on confirmed acceptance above 112.9–113.3k.

13. Risk management and invalidation

• Optimal short location: 112.2–112.4k (confluence of 0.236 Fibo, 9EMA, prior daily supply, HVN).
• Invalidation: Sustained acceptance above 112.95–113.30k (4h close or multiple hourly closes), which opens path to 114.5k.
• Time risk: If Asia session fails to reach 112k, expect early EU/US to try a retest; if still not tagged by mid-US, the move may have already reverted—then avoid late entries.

14. Trade plan (tactical)

• Entry: 112,250 short (within the 112.2–112.4k sell window).
• Take Profit: 110,200 (first magnet near session VWAP cluster and prior intraday support). Secondary extension (not in the formal output): 109,700 if momentum accelerates.
• Notes: Use a hard stop near 112,950–113,300 (outside the confluence band). Target/stop yields ~1:1.7 to 1:2 depending on stop choice.

Bottom line

• The evidence across moving averages, Fibo confluence at 112.4k, pivot extension behavior, and intraday overextension supports a tactical short on strength rather than chasing here. Expect a final push into resistance followed by mean reversion toward 110.2k over the next 24 hours.