BTC poised for neckline-to-Kijun run: Buy the dip toward 113.6 for a 115.9–116.6 push

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for BTC/USD as of 2025-09-29 21:00 UTC

Summary view

• Current price: 114,317
• Near-term bias: Bullish continuation after a confirmed breakout above the 112.3–112.6 neckline zone
• Expectation next 24h: Dip-to-rally structure. Probable pullback into 113.2–113.8, followed by extension toward 115.9–116.6. Invalidation on decisive loss of 112.5

1. Market structure and trend (Daily → 4h → 1h)

• Daily: From mid-Aug high (123.34k) to Aug 29 low (108.41k), BTC carved a broad corrective downtrend that based out in the 108.4–109.3 zone. Since Sept 25 (109.05 low), price has made higher lows/highs, reclaiming 112.1–112.5 and now pressing 114s. The break and close above 112.5 (prior support-turned-resistance cluster) confirms a short-term trend reversal to up.
• 4h: Clear higher-low sequence from 109.05 → 112.12 → 113.29/113.37 → 113.69. Price is riding an ascending channel; current location near upper half of the channel suggests room for a minor mean-reversion dip before continuation.
• 1h (intraday today): Constructive stair-step advance with shallow pullbacks; 14:00–20:00 UTC expansion leg pushed to 114.46 high on rising volume. The last couple of candles show marginal momentum fatigue (small body, upper wicks), consistent with a short pullback into prior breakout/vwap zones before another leg up.

2. Key levels (Confluence of S/R, prior highs/lows, volume)

• Immediate resistance: 114.46 (today’s high), then 115.26 (classic R2 derived from 9/25), 115.90–116.10 (dense daily supply and prior highs), 116.84–117.14 (mid-Sept swing highs), 117.6–117.9 (Fib 61.8%/prior supply)
• Immediate support: 113.95–114.10 (intraday VWAP cluster and micro-PoC), 113.2–113.6 (23.6–38.2% pullback of 9/25→9/29 swing and prior 1h structure), 112.5–112.6 (neckline, must-hold), 111.7–112.1 (hourly base), 109.7/109.05 (major base)

3. Pattern recognition

• Inverse Head & Shoulders (daily): Left shoulder ~109.25 (9/1), head 108.41 (8/29), right shoulder 109.05 (9/25). Neckline runs 112.3–112.6. The breakout above the neckline is active. Measured move ≈ (neckline 112.5 − head 108.41) ≈ 4.09k → objective ≈ 116.6, aligning with a known supply shelf (115.9–116.8). This is the dominant pattern for the next 24–72h.
• Ascending channel (1h/4h): Price at the upper half; a dip to the midline (approx 113.6–113.8) is typical before extension.
• Flag/continuation: The 14:00–20:00 UTC run followed by tight consolidation resembles a bullish flag on 15–30m, supporting a near-term push once digestion completes.

4. Fibonacci mapping

• Major retrace (Aug 13 high 123.34k → Aug 29 low 108.41k): • 38.2% = 114.11 → currently reclaimed • 50% = 115.88 → first target cluster • 61.8% = 117.62 → stretch target if momentum accelerates
• Recent impulse (Sept 25 low 109.05 → today’s 114.46): • 23.6% = 113.18; 38.2% = 112.58; 50% = 111.76; 61.8% = 110.96. A shallow, healthy pullback would likely terminate in 113.2–113.6; deeper corrective risk extends to 112.6, which coincides with the neckline.

5. Momentum suite

• RSI (daily): Estimated mid-50s, rising from neutral—supports trend transition without overbought risk yet.
• RSI (1h): Upper 60s intraday with slight bearish micro-divergence against 20:00 UTC high—signals a modest pullback likely before continuation.
• MACD (1h): Bullish cross with widening histogram earlier; histogram now flattening—typical of consolidation before another impulse.
• Stochastics (1h): Overbought and curling—consistent with a shallow reset to midline support.

6. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14D) rough ≈ 2.8–3.3k. From 114.3, a typical 24h envelope spans roughly 111.0–117.0.
• Bollinger Bands (1h, 20): Price rode the upper band most of the afternoon; a reversion to the middle band (roughly ~113.8–114.0) is the high-probability dip-buy zone before a band walk resumes.

7. Volume and order flow

• Daily volume expanding (9/29 > 9/28), confirming the breakout. OBV (qualitatively) uptrend day-over-day.
• Intraday, the 14:00–20:00 leg occurred on rising volume with sustained bids; 19:00–20:00 UTC saw strong prints near highs. A new intraday POC likely migrated up into ~114.0–114.2, which often serves as first support on a retest.
• Anchored VWAP (9/25 low): Estimated in the low-to-mid 113s; price remains above, indicating longs in control as long as 112.6–113.2 holds.

8. Moving averages and Ichimoku

• Daily 20EMA/SMA (est.): ~113.5–114.0. Reclaiming and holding above the daily 20-line is a key short-term bullish tell; price is now above.
• Daily Kijun (26-period midpoint) estimated near ~115.9. A test of Kijun is statistically likely post-breakout; acceptance above it would open 117.6.
• 4h/1h EMAs: Bullish stacking (8/20/50) intraday, supportive of buying dips.

9. Pivot points (classic, reference)

• From 9/25 bar: P ≈ 110.43; R1 ≈ 112.16; R2 ≈ 115.26. Today’s push toward the R2 area suggests the next magnet is 115.2–115.9 if momentum resumes after a brief pause.

10. Elliott structure (tactical)

• Wave count since 9/25 suggests: Wave 1 = 109.05→112.12, Wave 2 = shallow pullback, Wave 3 = today’s expansion to 114.46, likely Wave 4 = pending dip into 113.2–113.8, Wave 5 objective aligns 115.5–116.6. This harmonizes with IHS target and Fib 50%.

11. Scenario analysis (next 24h)

• Base case (60%): Dip to 113.2–113.8 (VWAP/middle band/structure), then continuation to 115.9–116.6. Close near 115.5–116.0.
• Bullish extension (25%): Minimal dip; immediate breakout above 114.46 toward 115.3 first, then 115.9–116.2; late-session stretch to 116.6 if volume persists.
• Bear case (15%): Failure to hold 112.6 neckline on volume → slide to 111.7–112.1; if liquidity thins, a sweep to 111.0 is possible (ATR lower bound). This would postpone the IHS resolution.

12. Trade plan (tactical long)

• Rationale: Confirmed breakout above 112.5 neckline; constructive intraday trend; rising volume; Fib and Ichimoku Kijun target confluence at ~115.9; hourly indicators favor a buy-the-dip setup.
• Entry: Buy limit 113,600 (within 113.2–113.8 optimal demand zone, above neckline).
• Target (24h take-profit): 115,950 (Fib 50%/Kijun confluence and dense supply band).
• Invalidation (stop, for risk framing): Below 112,450 (neckline failure). R:R ≈ (115,950−113,600)/(113,600−112,450) ≈ 2,350/1,150 ≈ 2.0:1.

13. Risk notes

• Overhead supply is heavy 115.9–116.8; expect chop/slippage near target. If momentum is exceptional, trail into the zone rather than pre-emptively fading strength.
• If Asia session liquidity is thin, wicks through 113.6 to 113.2 are possible—keep the invalidation below 112.5 to avoid getting wicked out in normal volatility.

Bottom line

• Momentum and structure favor buying a controlled dip for a push into 115.9–116.6 over the next 24 hours. A decisive break back below 112.5 would negate the setup and shift focus to 111.7–112.1 support.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always manage risk appropriately.