BTC’s Coiled Spring Under 115k: Ascending Triangle Poised to Pop Toward 116.1–116.8

Executive summary and setup bias

• Context: BTC trades at 114,632.38 after a two-step recovery from the 9/25 capitulation low (109,049) and a constructive rebound on 9/29–9/30. The market is forming higher lows on the daily and hourly, with short-term momentum turning up while medium-term trend metrics are stabilizing.
• Bias (next 24h): Moderately bullish continuation with a key inflection at 114,800–115,000. A clean push and hold above that band opens 116,100–116,750; failure there likely brings a retest of 114,150–113,950.
• Trade idea: Buy-the-dip into 114,150–114,300 support or buy a breakout above 115,000. Optimal single-price entry proposed below.

1. Multi-timeframe price action and market structure

• Daily structure: Since 9/25’s washout to 109,049, price printed consecutive higher lows (9/26–9/27 around 109,7k, 9/28 at 112,123, 9/30 intraday swing low 112,823) and higher highs (9/29 114,474; 9/30 intraday 114,795). This is a textbook transition from a sharp corrective leg to early-stage uptrend resumption.
• Micro (hourly, 9/30): Asia/EU sessions pressed down to 112,874–112,823; NY session reversed strongly, reclaiming 114k and pressing 114,680–114,795 into the close of the hour. The last impulse leg from ~112,8k to ~114,8k resolved with strong candles and improving breadth, consistent with intraday trend continuation.
• Pattern view: An ascending triangle is developing with a flat ceiling at 114,800–115,000 and rising swing lows from 112,8k. Measured move height ~2,000 yields a target near 116,800 upon breakout, aligning with Fibonacci and pivot confluences (see below).

2. Support/resistance mapping and confluence

• Immediate resistance: 114,800–115,000 (intraday highs and round-number psychology). Above it: 115,386 (classic R1), 116,100 (recent daily supply band), 116,370–116,750 (R2 and 50% retrace of Aug high to Sep low), then 117,100–117,500 and 118,300–118,600 (61.8% retrace cluster).
• Immediate support: 114,150–114,250 (intraday shelf and Bollinger midline proximity), 113,950–113,550 (hourly congestion), 112,874–112,800 (today’s session low/pivot), 112,100–111,700 (late Sep pivot band), then 111,200.
• Why this matters: The 114,8–115,0 area coincides with the 38.2% retrace from 124,457 → 109,049 at 114,936, acting as first major fib resistance. Clearing it tends to accelerate toward the 50% zone (116,753) where profit-taking is likely.

3. Moving averages (trend filters)

• SMA20 (daily): ~114,130 by summing the last 20 closes; price now slightly above it, signaling short-term trend reclaimed. The slope is flattening-to-rising after 9/25–9/26 weakness.
• SMA50 (daily): Estimated ~115,500–115,800. Price is still a touch below, framing this move as a mean-reversion-to-trend attempt with room to extend into the SMA50 magnet near 116k.
• SMA200 (daily): Likely well below spot (approx 108–110k region). Long-term uptrend remains intact; recent selloff did not violate the secular trend.
• EMAs (daily 21/55): EMA21 roughly mid-114s, EMA55 around mid-115s. Price is engaging EMA21 from above; a sustained close above EMA21 usually precedes a test of EMA55 and SMA50.
• Takeaway: Short-term trend bullish, medium-term neutral-to-soft, long-term bullish. Expect magnetic pull to 115.5–116k where multiple MAs cluster.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (daily): Neutral-to-positive, approx 49–52. It reset from mid-60s in Aug to low-40s post 9/25 and is curling up—room to run before overbought.
• RSI (4h/hourly): Hourly RSI is in the upper-50s/low-60s after the NY ramp, consistent with momentum ignition but not yet stretched.
• Stochastic RSI (inferred): On hourly, it likely cycled from oversold during the 10:00–12:00 UTC dip to near-overbought on the 18:00–20:00 rally—healthy during intraday trends.
• CCI (daily, inferred): Back above 0 after negative prints last week, confirming momentum pivot.
• MACD (daily): Histogram narrowing toward zero with a potential bullish cross in the coming sessions if price holds above 114k. On 4h/hourly, MACD already crossed positive earlier in the NY session—short-term tailwind.
• Takeaway: Momentum backdrop supports a grind higher, with no immediate overbought constraints on the daily.

5. Volatility, mean reversion, and bands

• ATR14 (daily): Estimated ~2.2k–2.6k. A 1x ATR move from here puts 116.8–117.2 on the table in a strong session; routine continuation should see 115.4–116.1.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Middle band near SMA20 (~114,130). Upper band estimated ~118,7; lower ~109,5. Price is creeping above the midline with expanding bandwidth after a recent squeeze—typical of a developing upswing.
• Keltner vs Bollinger (squeeze inference): Bands were relatively compressed post 9/25 and are beginning to open; this favors range expansion to the upside if 115k breaks.

6. Volume analytics

• Daily volume: 9/25 selloff was heavy (75.5B), 9/29 rebound strong (~60B), 9/30 intraday NY activity picked up again. This is characteristic of capitulation then constructive accumulation.
• Volume-by-price (qualitative): Notable acceptance built in 112–114k over the past week; thinness above 115k into 116.5k could facilitate a quick push once offers are lifted.
• OBV (inferred): Stabilized and curling up from the 9/25 trough; no bearish divergence visible on the intraday push.

7. Ichimoku Cloud (contextual)

• Daily: Price reclaimed/approaching the Tenkan (approx high-113s/low-114s) and aims toward Kijun (approx mid-115s). Tenkan curling up is supportive; a Tenkan > Kijun bull cross in coming days would reinforce upside if sustained. Forward cloud likely flat-to-mildly bearish around 115–116, a typical magnet area.
• Hourly: Price rides above the cloud post 18:00 UTC impulse; pullbacks into the cloud (113.8–114.1) should attract dip buyers barring a momentum failure.

8. Fibonacci frameworks

• Major swing (Aug high 124,457 → Sep low 109,049):
  • 38.2%: 114,936 (spot just below; key lid)
  • 50%: 116,753 (first major objective on breakout)
  • 61.8%: 118,567 (stretch target, aligns with late-summer supply)
• Local swing (9/26 low ~108,729 → 9/30 high ~114,795):
  • 23.6%: ~113,350; 38.2%: ~112,500; 50%: ~111,760
  • Today’s low ~112,823 tagged the 38.2–50% pocket and held—a bullish local retracement behavior.

9. Classical pivots (derived from 9/29 H/L/C 114,474.57 / 111,589.95 / 114,400.38)

• Pivot P: ~113,488
• R1: ~115,387
• R2: ~116,373
• R3: ~118,271
• S1: ~112,502; S2: ~110,604
• Interpretation: Trading back above P and eyeing R1; acceptance over R1 unlocks R2, a prime profit-taking zone coinciding with the 50% fib.

10. Pattern synthesis and scenarios

• Primary (60%): Ascending triangle breakout
  • Trigger: 114,950–115,000 break-and-hold
  • Path: 115,386 (R1) → 116,100 (prior supply/MA cluster) → 116,370–116,750 (R2/50% fib). High-likelihood reaction near 116.1–116.4; partial fades likely before another push.
• Secondary (30%): Range rotate before breakout
  • Path: Fade to 114,300–113,950 support, rebuild energy, then attempt breakout during EU/NY overlap next session.
• Tertiary bear risk (10%): Failed breakout → liquidity sweep
  • Path: Rejection at 114,8–115k sends price to 112,8–112,5k; only a strong hourly close below 112,5k would threaten the nascent uptrend and reopen 111,7k/111,2k.

11. Risk management and invalidation guide

• Bull thesis holds above 112,8k intraday. A firm daily close back below ~113k would dent momentum and likely delay upside for several sessions.
• Liquidity notes: Round numbers (115k, 116k) are likely liquidity pools. Expect wicks around those prints; use limit orders on dips or momentum stops above clears to reduce slippage.

12. Synthesis and 24h outlook

• Confluences for upside:
  • Reclaimed SMA20 and hourly Ichimoku cloud with bullish hourly MACD
  • Structural higher lows and an ascending triangle under 115k
  • Fibonacci 38.2% lid directly overhead; a typical gateway to the 50% zone
  • Pivot R1/R2 align with fib and recent MA magnets around 116k
• Upside expectation: 115.4–116.4 test in the next 24h if 115k breaks/holds; stretch prints to ~116.7–116.8 possible on strong momentum.
• Downside expectation: Dips likely absorbed at 114.3–114.0; only a loss of 112.8 would materially weaken the setup.

Decision and trade plan

• Action: Buy (Long position)
• Optimal entry philosophy: Prefer a buy-the-dip limit in 114,150–114,300 where intraday demand, Bollinger midline, and hourly dynamic support cluster; alternatively, a momentum buy-stop above 115,000 for breakout confirmation. To output a single opening price, I select the dip entry for better risk/reward.
• Take-profit logic: First objective at 116,100 (prior supply/MA cluster and just below R2 confluence), which is within a 1x ATR move and historically sticky.
• Optional (not required but recommended): Protective stop around 112,750–112,900 (below today’s session pivot) to preserve a favorable R:R.

Bottom line

• The balance of evidence (structure, momentum, and confluence) supports a tactical long targeting a 116.1k test within 24h, provided 114k holds on dips and 115k is ultimately reclaimed.