BTC poised for a push to R2: Buying the dip for a 24-hour momentum continuation

Timeframe and data used

• Instrument: Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
• Current price (spot, latest print): 125,241.42
• Daily data: 2025-07-09 to 2025-10-06
• Intraday hourly data: 2025-10-05 21:00 to 2025-10-06 20:58
• Objective: Predict next 24 hours, choose Buy or Sell, and specify optimal open and close prices.

1. Market regime and trend structure

• Primary trend (daily): Up. Since the 2025-09-25 swing low near 109,049, BTC has produced a clean sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Closes since 2025-10-01 have advanced for six consecutive sessions (118,649 → 120,681 → 122,267 → 122,425 → 123,513 → 125,241 intraday), signifying strong momentum.
• Secondary trend (1H): Up with consolidation. Today’s session stair-stepped from ~123.3–124.7 base to a local high of 126,149, then a controlled pullback to ~125.25, holding above intraday supports, consistent with a bullish continuation pattern (bull flag/ascending channel drift).

2. Key levels: support and resistance mapping Daily swing map

• Major support zone cluster: 119,600–120,700 (confluence of fib 38.2% from Sep 25 low, Oct 2 close 120,681, and late Sep pivot congestion). This is the “must-hold” to preserve the new uptrend.
• Intermediate support: 122,250–123,550 (Oct 3–5 closes and yesterday’s pivot base; also intraday floor seen early today). The top of this band, ~123,500, is now first defense for bulls.
• Resistance: 126,150 (today’s intraday high), then 127,100–127,300 (R2 objective by classic pivots), then 127,800–128,000 (measured-move/extension cluster). Intraday (hourly) micro-levels
• Immediate supports: 125,100–125,250 (today 20:00 low 125,098; 20:00–21:00 prints held above), 124,950 (13:00 hour’s closing high turned support), 124,500–124,700 (14:00 close 124,505; 12:00–15:00 value area).
• Immediate resistances: 125,560 (yesterday’s daily high), 126,150 (today’s peak), 126,500–126,800 (projected breakout band on momentum continuation).

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~116,011 (computed from the latest 20 closes). Price is ~7.9% above the 20D SMA, reflecting a strong momentum regime.
• 50-day SMA (est.): ~116,500–117,000. Price is well above, confirming medium-term uptrend.
• 200-day SMA (est., limited visibility): Rising and below spot; trend context remains bullish. All major SMAs are stacked bullish (price > 20D > 50D > 200D). Implication: Trend-following systems remain long-biased; pullbacks toward the 20D band are likely bought unless structure breaks under ~120k.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (est.): Upper bullish zone, roughly 67–72 after six green closes. This indicates strong momentum, not yet an extreme blow-off. Riding the upper band suggests trend continuation is more probable than immediate reversal.
• RSI(1H): Pulled back from overbought toward the mid-50s/60s after the 126.1 peak, consistent with a reset within an uptrend; no bearish divergence evident on the hourly swing from 125.8 → 126.15 → 125.24.
• Stochastics (daily): High, but curling can persist in momentum phases; intraday stochastic reset during the post-peak drift favors another attempt higher if support holds.
• MACD (daily): Bullish cross with expanding histogram since Oct 1 breakout; slope remains positive. Intraday MACD cooled modestly after the spike, typical of a consolidation before the next leg.

5. Volatility and range analysis

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~2.8k–3.2k. A 1-ATR up-leg from 125.2k projects into ~127.5–128.4k, aligning well with R2/R3 extensions; a 0.5-ATR pullback points to ~123.7–123.8k, right into prior breakout area.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Mid-band ~20D SMA (~116k). Price is pressing or riding the upper band, classic of trend days. Riding the band typically precedes a measured advance or brief sideways drift rather than abrupt tops.

6. Volume/flow and participation

• Volume expanded on the Oct 1–3 breakout sequence (71B → 83.9B), then moderated but stayed elevated (Oct 5 ~73.7B; today substantial). This confirms genuine participation on up-days—healthy accumulation rather than thin-air pops.
• OBV (qualitative): Rising since late September, no significant bearish divergence vs price—supports continuation.

7. Candlestick/price action cues Daily

• Oct 1: Wide-range breakout close at high—bullish marubozu character.
• Oct 2–3: Continuation candles with strong closes, no upper-wick rejection of note.
• Oct 5: Range expansion to 125.56 high; close near highs.
• Today: Printing near highs again; mild pullback post 126.15 looks like digestion, not rejection. Intraday
• Constructive series of higher lows from ~123.6 up to ~125.1. The post-spike consolidation produced tight-bodied candles, reflecting acceptance above 125k.

8. Fibonacci workup Retracement from Sep 25 low to today’s high

• Range: 109,049 → 126,149 = 17,100
• 38.2%: 126,149 − 6,532 ≈ 119,617 (close to the 120,681 breakout close)
• 50%: 117,599
• 61.8%: 115,570 Takeaway: First meaningful “buy-the-dip” zone sits 119.6k–120.7k; current price well above, reflecting trend strength. Extensions
• Conservative 1.0 extension off the late Sep–early Oct swing already tagged (~125.7k). Next extension cluster: 127.1k–127.8k (harmonizes with pivot R2 and measured-move logic).

9. Pivot points (Classic, using 2025-10-05 H/L/C)

• H: 125,559.21; L: 122,191.96; C: 123,513.48
• Pivot P ≈ 123,754
• R1 ≈ 125,316 (current price oscillating around here)
• R2 ≈ 127,121
• R3 ≈ 130,488
• S1 ≈ 121,949; S2 ≈ 120,141 Interpretation: Price consolidating near/just under R1 is constructive; R2 at ~127,121 is a realistic 24h target within 1 ATR.

10. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price well above cloud; conversion line (Tenkan) likely ~121–122k; base line (Kijun) ~118–119k; bullish TK cross persists. Lagging span above price and cloud—fully bullish state.
• 1H: Price above a thin cloud; Kijun support approximates 124.6–124.9. A retest of Kijun is a high-odds dip-buy in trending conditions.

11. Elliott wave sketch (heuristic)

• From 109k low, an impulsive sequence appears underway: wave 1 to ~114k, wave 2 to ~109–110 retest, extended wave 3 through 120–126 zone, with today’s pause likely subwave iv of 3 on intraday scale. A final push toward 127–128 could complete the near-term impulse before a more meaningful dip.

12. Market structure conclusions and what flips the bias

• Bull case (base): Hold 125.1–124.7 intraday supports, then push through 126.15 to tag 127.1–127.5 over next 24h.
• Bear case (risk): Lose 124.5 then 123.5 on hourly closing basis. That opens a quick test of 122.4–122.8; deeper shakeout could revisit 120.7 (38.2% cluster). The trend turns suspect only below 119.6 on a daily close.
• Invalidation for immediate long momentum: Hourly close below ~123.5 followed by heavy sell volume; daily close back under 122.4 would caution that the breakout is failing.

13. Scenario probabilities (subjective)

• Continuation to R2 (127.1±0.3k) after shallow dip: 55%
• Sideways 124.7–126.2 consolidation without decisive break: 25%
• Pullback to 123.5–122.8 before reattempt higher: 15%
• Sharp reversal back toward 120.7: 5%

14. 24-hour path forecast

• Asia open to early Europe: Prefer a small liquidity dip toward 125.1–124.8 (Kijun/VWAP zone), holding firm.
• Europe to early US: Reclaim 125.5–125.8, probe 126.15 and break through on increased participation.
• Late US: Momentum follow-through tapping 126.8–127.3 (R2 zone). If momentum is strong, upper wick can stretch toward 127.6–127.8 before fading into close.

15. Trade plan synthesis

• Bias: Buy dips in-trend; momentum remains constructive across timeframes.
• Optimal entry method options: a) Pullback limit: 125,100 (near 20:00 low 125,098 and immediate intraday support). High fill probability, good RR. b) Breakout stop: 126,200 (above the 126,149 high), for those prioritizing confirmation over price.
• Stop (guidance; not requested but prudent): 123,450 (below intraday structure and prior daily close cluster), risking ~1,650–1,700 from 125,100 entry. Alternatively tighter 124,250 for aggressive risk.
• Take profit (24h objective): 127,120 (R2 cluster). Secondary stretch target if momentum overperforms: 127,600–127,800.
• R/R from 125,100 → 127,120 ≈ +2,020 gain vs ~1,650 risk to 123,450 ≈ 1.2:1 (improves materially if using a trail once >126.2 is reclaimed, or if entering closer to 124.7).

16. Confluence summary

• Trend: Up across daily and hourly.
• Momentum: Positive (RSI, MACD), not at exhaustion extremes.
• Volatility: ATR allows room to R2 within 24h.
• Structure: Higher lows, strong base above 123.5–124.7; 126.15 cap likely to give on next attempt.
• Volume: Expansion on up days; no distribution signature.
• Fibonacci and Pivots: Both project 127.1–127.8 as next logical magnet. Net: Buy-the-dip remains the statistically favorable approach; breakout-buy acceptable if dip does not materialize.

Final call

• Decision: Buy (Long).
• Optimal open price: 125,100 (limit on dip). If not filled and price breaks 126,150, consider a contingency breakout entry above 126,200 (not part of the single numeric output, but relevant tactically).
• Take-profit close price (24h horizon): 127,120 (pivot R2 confluence).