BTC at a Textbook 23.6% Fib Pullback: Positioning for a 24‑Hour Rebound to 125k

BTC multi-timeframe technical debrief and 24h playbook

1. Market structure and trend context

• Daily structure: From the Sep 25 swing low (109,049) BTC has printed a series of higher highs and higher lows, culminating in the Oct 6 high at 126,198 and a close at 124,753. Today (Oct 7) is the first meaningful pullback after a six-session advance (Oct 1–Oct 6). Structure remains bullish; today’s action looks corrective within an established uptrend.
• Intraday (1h) structure: A local downtrend developed from the 12:00 high (125,171) to the 18:00 low (120,717), followed by a 3-candle reversal sequence into 19:00–20:00 that reclaimed 122,200. Price is now consolidating just above 122,000, forming a potential higher low versus 18:00.

2. Key levels (confluence map)

• Fib retracement (Sep 25 low 109,049 → Oct 6 high 126,198; range = 17,149): • 23.6% = 126,198 − 0.236×17,149 ≈ 122,149 (current price ≈ 122,155 sits right on it; textbook shallow pullback). • 38.2% ≈ 119,645 (deeper pullback line-in-the-sand below 120k). • 50% ≈ 117,624; 61.8% ≈ 115,596 (trend still intact above these, but unlikely in next 24h barring shock).
• Classic pivots (derived from Oct 6 H/L/C: 126,198/123,196/124,753): • Pivot P ≈ 124,715; R1 ≈ 126,235; S1 ≈ 123,233; S2 ≈ 121,714. • Today’s low 120,717 wicked just below S2 and snapped back above—bullish rejection of sub-S2 levels.
• Horizontal S/R (recent price memory): • Resistance supply: 123,800–124,700 (prior intraday distribution ledges, daily pivot P). Above: 125,200–126,200 (yesterday’s high zone). • Support demand: 121,200–121,900 (hourly cluster), 120,700 (session low/liquidity sweep), 119,650 (38.2% fib and 4h demand shelf).

3. Candlestick and pattern diagnostics

• Daily: After six green sessions, today’s red session is a controlled pullback so far, not a trend change. Yesterday’s long upper wick near 126k signaled short-term exhaustion; today’s test into 120,7k flushed weak longs and reclaimed 122k—constructive.
• Hourly: 15:00–18:00 formed an accelerated sell leg with expanding range/volume; 19:00–20:00 prints back-to-back green recovery candles—a 3-candle reversal pattern consistent with a near-term bottoming process. Looks like a micro “morning-star” variant on 1h.
• Pattern: Bull flag/descending intraday channel from 12:00 high broke to the upside with the 20:00 candle close above 122,200. Confirmation through 122,800–123,000 strengthens the breakout case.

4. Volume, momentum, and mean reversion

• Volume: Largest hourly volumes clustered on the selloff (15:00–16:00), then volume tapered on the bounce—typical of seller exhaustion with follow-through pending. Daily volumes on Oct 3–6 were elevated during the up-leg; today’s pullback volume is healthy but not capitulative.
• RSI: • Daily RSI likely in the high-50s/low-60s after a week-long uptrend—bullish but off overbought, leaving room for another push. • 1h RSI hit oversold territory on the 18:00 flush and rebounded toward the mid-40s/50s—bullish divergence potential if price holds above 121.7–122.0.
• MACD: • Daily MACD > 0 with positive histogram; today’s fade compresses the histogram but does not flip trend. • 1h MACD turned down during the selloff and is curling toward a bullish cross as price stabilizes above 122k.
• Bollinger bands: • Daily: Price recently rode the upper band; today reverted toward the band’s interior—healthy de-pressurization. Mid-band (20D SMA) sits far below (~116–118), implying trend strength. • 1h: Flush tagged/undercut the lower band near 121, then mean-reverted toward the basis; bands are still expanded, but contraction is starting—room for upside reversion to the upper band ~124–125 if momentum re-ignites.
• Keltner vs Bollinger: Brief BB expansion with Keltner overlap earlier this week; today’s contraction suggests a pause before the next directional impulse—bias up in alignment with higher timeframe trend.

5. Moving averages (trend gauges)

• Daily 20/50-day averages: Price is well above both, confirming bullish higher timeframe regime. The 20D trend slope is up; 50D likely rising. This supports buy-the-dip logic.
• 4h/1h EMAs: The 1h 9/21 EMAs bear-crossed during the drop but have begun to flatten; a reclaim of 122.8–123.0 likely produces a bullish re-cross and momentum follow-through.
• 200h EMA (approx): Acts as a magnet commonly around 122–123 in this regime; price oscillation around 122 is consistent with basing.

6. Ichimoku cloud (trend integrity)

• Daily: Price above cloud; Tenkan-sen (≈ (9H+9L)/2) estimated near ~118.9; Kijun near ~116.8. Price at 122.2 remains comfortably above both—trend intact, pullback still shallow versus Tenkan. Chikou span remains supportive.
• 1h: Price has likely tested/peeked back into the cloud during the flush and is now attempting to retake or ride the cloud top—constructive if 122.8–123.0 flips to support.

7. Fibonacci extension mapping (for upside targets)

• Using the micro impulse 18:00 low → 20:00 close (120,717 → 122,221, Δ≈1,504): • If a shallow dip to 121.7–122.0 holds, 1.618 extension projects ≈ 124.1–124.3; 2.0 extension ≈ 124.7–124.9. • This aligns with the daily pivot P (124.7) and the prior supply shelf (124.7–125.2), providing a natural take-profit zone.

8. Pivot, VWAP, and intraday execution lens

• Daily pivot stack (from Oct 6) puts today’s price between S2 (121,714) and S1 (123,233). A close back above S1 tilts momentum to the topside for the next session.
• Intraday VWAP (approx) was pulled down by heavy sell volume mid-session and is likely near/just above current price (~122–122.5). Reclaiming and holding above intraday VWAP supports rotation to 123.2 then 124.0+.

9. Volatility and ATR

• Recent daily ranges run ~2,500–4,500. From 122,000, an average positive day could reasonably test 124,500–125,000; a negative day could probe 120,500–121,000. Expect choppy but directional continuation after today’s reset.

10. Elliott wave and structure symmetry (heuristic)

• The advance from Sep 25 to Oct 6 resembles a 5-wave impulse with today’s action consistent with a smaller-degree corrective a-b-c. If so, a wave-5 minor push could target 124.7–126.2 over the next 24–48h, with 124.9 the first achievable extension.

11. Liquidity and orderflow tells

• The 18:00 sweep of 120.7k likely ran stops below intraday lows, grabbing liquidity before reversing. Subsequent steady bid into 20:00 suggests absorption and redistribution higher. Above 122.8–123.0 sits a pocket of thin air toward 123.8–124.3; once through, momentum can accelerate to pivot P ≈ 124.7.

12. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈60%): Hold 121.7–122.1, reclaim 122.8–123.0, then rotate to 123.8–124.3. Momentum extension tags 124.7–124.9 into US/late-Asia session.
• Range case (≈30%): Chop 121.8–123.3 as market builds energy under 123.8 supply; eventual topside break likely beyond 24h window.
• Bear break (≈10%): Lose 121.7 decisively; retest 120.7 liquidity. If 120.7 fails on a closing basis, magnet to 119.6 (38.2% fib). This path currently has limited evidence given the swift reclaim of 122k and shallowness of the daily pullback.

13. Risk management and invalidation

• Invalidation for the long idea: A 1–4h close below 120,700 weakens the setup and opens the door to 119,650 (38.2% fib). A daily close below ~119,650 would transition bias from buy-the-dip to neutral/bearish.
• Time stop: If price cannot reclaim 122.8–123.0 within the next 8–12 trading hours, odds of a deeper pullback increase.

14. Synthesis and conclusion

• Confluences for a long: Textbook 23.6% daily Fib support at current price, S2 flush and reclaim, 1h reversal sequence, alignment with higher timeframe uptrend, room in oscillators after cooling off, and a clear, nearby invalidation point (120.7/119.65). Overhead targets line up with pivot P (124.7) and Fib extensions (124.1–124.9).
• Therefore, the higher-probability 24h path is a rebound from 121.7–122.1 toward 124.5–125.0. Optimal execution is a limit buy in the 121.9–122.1 demand pocket with targets near 124.9.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Entry: 122,000 (limit), allowing for minor undercut wicks.
• Initial target: 124,900 (aligns with 2.0 extension/near prior supply and daily pivot P cluster).
• Protective stop (for risk planning; not part of the required output fields): 120,580 (below today’s 120,717 low to avoid stop hunts). Risk ≈ 1,420; Reward ≈ 2,900; R:R ≈ 2.0.

Bottom line: Buy-the-dip at 122k targeting a 24h rotation to 124.9k. Trend intact; pullback appears corrective and shallow with strong confluence support.