BTC spring at 120k sets the stage: aiming for 124.6k within 24 hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Bullish continuation after a completed 3-leg pullback into the 38.2–50% retracement zone. Expect a drift toward 123.8–124.6k with scope to probe 124.9–125.2k if momentum firms. Key invalidation on a firm break below 119.8–120.1k.
• Trade idea: Buy dips near 120.9–121.1k targeting 124.6k; protective risk should sit under 119.6–119.8k (notional stop range).

1. Market structure and price action

• Daily trend: Up since late Sep. Higher highs/higher lows from 109.0k (Sep 25 low) to 126.2k (Oct 6 high). The pullback since Oct 6 has respected prior breakout areas and produced a higher low vs the 118.6–119.0k pivot.
• Pullback anatomy (Oct 6 → Oct 9): A-B-C corrective sequence appears complete: A down to 121.45k (Oct 7), B bounce to 123.36k (Oct 8), C down to 120.30–119.89k (Oct 9). That C-wave taps the 50% retracement region of the Oct advance, then buyers defended swiftly (spring-like wick at 17:00 UTC).
• Intraday (hourly): Sequence of lower highs broke when price stopped making new lows post 17:00 UTC; a small base formed between 120.3–121.3k. The 17:00 candle shows a flush to 119.89k and fast reclaim—classic liquidity sweep/spring followed by absorption. Since then, marginally higher lows with steady re-bids into 121.2k suggest accumulation rather than distribution.

2. Key levels, supports/resistances, and liquidity

• Resistance zones: 123.6k (today’s intraday supply), 124.6k (R1 pivot and prior supply), 125.9–126.2k (R2/pk-high supply, Oct 6 high).
• Support zones: 121.6k (S/R flip near daily S1 reclaim), 121.0–120.9k (intraday demand), 120.3–120.1k (50% Fib of 114.06→126.20 leg), 119.8k (S2 pivot/today’s liquidity sweep), 118.65–118.70k (61.8% Fib and Oct 1 breakout close—major line in the sand for the trend).
• Liquidity pockets: Resting stops likely below 120.0k (swept today), and above 123.6–124.0k (breakout fuel). Thin air above 124.6k up to 125.9–126.2k could accelerate if 124.6k is converted.

3. Fibonacci and measured moves

• Swing used: Oct 1 close 114.06k to Oct 6 high 126.20k (range ≈ 12.14k).
• Retracements: 38.2% ≈ 121.54k (near current), 50% ≈ 120.13k (tested), 61.8% ≈ 118.67k (key bull invalidation). Price has respected 50% and is hovering just under 38.2%, a constructive spot for a continuation attempt.
• Measured move: If the correction is complete, a typical C→new impulse projects toward 0.618–1.0 extension beyond B (123.36k), yielding 124.6–125.9k in the next session if momentum firming persists.

4. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20D SMA: ≈116.8k (rising). Price at 121.2k sits well above, indicating bullish reversion dynamic after an upper-band tag earlier this week.
• 50D/100D SMAs: Estimated clustered around 114–116k and rising—price is above all key daily MAs; pullbacks toward 118.7–120.1k remain buy-the-dip zones while this alignment holds.
• Hourly EMAs: Short-term flattening and attempting to curl higher after the 17:00 UTC spring; reclaiming 121.6–121.8k would confirm a local bullish shift.

5. Momentum: RSI, Stochastics, MACD

• Daily RSI(14): Neutral-bullish ~58–62 by estimation—no overbought conditions; room to extend higher.
• Hourly RSI: Likely showed bullish divergence on the 17:00 sweep (lower price low, higher momentum low), consistent with a basing pattern.
• Daily MACD: Positive but histogram has been contracting (post-rally digestion). A turn-up from above the zero line is typical in continuation phases; today’s defense increases odds of a bullish cross-up in the next 24–48h.
• Stochastics (hourly): Likely cycling up from oversold post-sweep; supports an intraday pop.

6. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Daily BB(20): Mid ≈116.8k; upper ≈124.8k; lower ≈108.8k (rough estimates). Price pulled back from near the upper band to the upper-mid band region; typical continuation setup if trend intact. Expect a mean-reversion attempt toward the upper band on successful 121.6 reclaim.
• ATR(14D): ≈3.3–3.8k. A 24h move from 121.2k comfortably supports a test of 123.8–124.6k, while downside risk to 119.6–118.7k sits within one ATR.

7. Volume, participation, and pivots

• Volume profile (recent): Heavy transactions around 121–122k (current node) and 118.6–119.0k (prior breakout node). Today’s rebound from 119.9–120.3k on increased hourly volume shows buyers absorbing supply.
• Classic pivots (based on Oct 8 H/L/C): P ≈122.88k; S1 ≈121.59k; S2 ≈119.83k; R1 ≈124.64k; R2 ≈125.93k. Price dwells between S1 and S2 after testing S2; a reclaim of S1 (121.6k) sets a path of least resistance toward R1 (124.64k) within a session.

8. Pattern recognition and frameworks

• Bull flag / channel: The decline from 126.2k to 120.3–119.9k is orderly and overlaps—a corrective channel rather than impulsive selloff. Breakout from this channel targets the 124.6–125.2k zone.
• Wyckoff lens: Re-accumulation after breakout; today’s spring below 120k followed by a quick reclaim typifies a Phase C spring/test, often preceding a markup (Phase D) toward prior highs.
• Ichimoku (daily): Price above cloud; Tenkan and Kijun baselines likely below price with upward bias; Chikou span ahead of price—trend supportive.
• Elliott wave (tactical): The ABC corrective wave appears matured. A nascent wave-1/impulse could extend toward 124.6k before consolidating.

9. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (60%): Dips hold 120.9–121.1k; reclaim 121.6–121.8k; push toward 123.6k; momentum carry to 124.4–124.6k (R1). If order flow is strong, overshoot to 124.9–125.2k possible.
• Bear/alt case (30%): Another liquidity probe to 120.1–119.8k before turning up. This remains a buy zone while 118.7k holds.
• Risk case (10%): A decisive break and hourly close below 119.6–119.8k opens 118.7k (61.8% Fib). Loss of 118.7k would threaten the broader uptrend and postpone upside targets.

10. Trade plan and risk framework

• Entry: Prefer a limit buy on a shallow pullback 120.9–121.0k (near today’s developing value and below micro resistance) to optimize reward/risk.
• Target: 124.6k (daily R1/pivot confluence and prior supply shelf). Stretch: 125.9–126.2k if momentum accelerates.
• Invalidation (stop guidance): 119.6–119.8k zone. A firm break/close below implies the correction is not finished; next strong support 118.7k.
• Position sizing: Calibrate to withstand ≈1.3–1.5k adverse excursion with ATR ~3.5k; maintain R:R ≥ 2:1 to 124.6k.

Conclusion

• The weight of evidence (trend, Fib confluence, intraday spring, pivot structure, and improving microstructure) favors a buy-the-dip approach. Expectation: grind-up toward 123.8–124.6k over the next 24 hours, with invalidation below 119.6–119.8k.