BTC at the Cliff Edge: Buying the 109.6k Fib Pivot for a 24h Snapback to 112.8k

Executive summary and 24h outlook

• Context: BTC sold off hard on 2025-10-10 (intraday low ~104,582; close ~113,214) after a week-long attempt above 120k–126k. Today (Oct 11) price drifted lower, printing a new local low around 109,952 on the 20:00 UTC hour; last trade ~110,235. Volatility remains elevated, but intraday volumes are moderating from yesterday’s capitulation spike.
• 24h bias: Mean-reversion bounce is favored from 109.6k–110k support toward 112.0k–112.9k, unless 109.6k breaks decisively on rising volume. Primary target zone aligns with the 23.6–38.2% retracement of the 10/06–10/10 swing.
• Base case (60%): Range-to-up day: 109.2k–113.2k with intraday squeeze toward 112.8k (Fib 38.2%).
• Bear case (25%): Support slips, extension to 108.4k–107.6k before stabilizing.
• Bull case (15%): Strong reclaim above 112.8k opens 113.9k–115.4k (50% Fib), but that likely needs a catalyst or Monday liquidity.

Step-by-step, multi-technique analysis

1. Trend structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: The late-Sep recovery (109k→124–126k) failed; Friday’s high-to-low dump broke the short-term uptrend and pushed price below the rising channel. Structure is now bearish-to-neutral short term, but near major support (109–110k) tested repeatedly in late Aug/early Sep.
• Hourly trend (last 24–36h): Lower highs: 114.86 → 113.41 → 112.85 → 112.44; lower lows culminating in 109.95. Momentum is fading (selling waves smaller than Friday), consistent with a potential stabilization/bounce attempt.

2. Key levels (price action, pivots, historical S/R)

• Major supports: 110.12k (8/25 close), 109.71k (9/26 close), 109.25k (9/1 close), 108.81k/108.41k (8/30–8/29 closes), 107.56k (8/29 low). Cluster 109.7k±0.6k is dense.
• Resistances: 111.8k–112.4k (intraday hourly supply), 112.84k (Fib 38.2%), 113.21k–113.94k (10/10 close and intraday supply), 115.39k (Fib 50%).
• Read: Price is sitting atop a thick historical demand shelf (109–110k). First overhead supply sits into 111.8k–113.2k.

3. Fibonacci mapping (10/06 high to 10/10 low)

• Swing High (H) ≈ 126,198; Swing Low (L) ≈ 104,582; Range (R) ≈ 21,615.
• 23.6%: L + 0.236R ≈ 109,684.
• 38.2%: ≈ 112,840.
• 50%: ≈ 115,390.
• 61.8%: ≈ 117,941.
• 78.6%: ≈ 121,572.
• Current ~110,235 is slightly above the 23.6% level (109,684). That level often serves as first stabilization pivot after capitulation; next magnet up is 38.2% (112,840).

4. Momentum (RSI, MACD, Stoch)

• Daily RSI (inferred): Fell sharply from 60s to mid/low-30s post-crash; flirting with oversold but not extreme. This favors mean-reversion more than trend extension immediately.
• Hourly RSI: Hovering in 35–45 range through the day, forming mild bullish divergence as price made a marginal new low (109.95) while RSI didn’t make a materially lower low. Suggests sellers tiring.
• MACD daily: Bearish cross after the reversal; histogram negative but steepness moderating. Intraday MACD on 1h shows shallow negative slope, consistent with base-building.

5. Volatility regime (ATR, ranges, Bollinger Bands)

• Daily ATR14 is inflated by Friday’s shock move; expect 24h realized range of ~3–5k.
• Bollinger Bands (daily, est.): Price tagged/lives near the lower band; mean reversion toward the middle band would imply 112–115k over 1–3 sessions. On 1h, price is hugging the lower band with repeated intraband closes, a classic setup for a snapback toward the 1h mid-band (~112.0k–112.4k) and possibly upper band (~113k).

6. Volume/flow analysis

• Oct 10 posted capitulation-scale volume (largest in dataset). Today’s hourly volumes are lighter; selling pressure not accelerating on new intraday lows—common for exhaustion leads. That supports bounce probability.

7. Market structure and patterns

• Intraday falling wedge (1h) from ~114.2k to ~109.95k with compressing ranges; a break/reclaim above 111.6k–112.0k would confirm toward 112.8k–113.5k.
• Post-crash consolidation box 109.9k–112.6k. A topside sweep of this box is typical if sellers fail to press new lows quickly.

8. Ichimoku (directional bias, reversion vectors)

• Daily price likely below Tenkan and Kijun; Kijun mean-reversion pull sits higher (mid- to high-110s/low-115s). First, a Tenkan reclaim (~112–113) is a common step before testing Kijun.

9. Elliott wave/ABC corrective framing (heuristic)

• After the 10/01–10/06 advance to 126k, the drop resembles an A-wave into 10/10, with a shallow B to 113.9k and a C leg probing 109.95k today. The C looks mature given diminishing momentum—supporting an ABC completion and bounce attempt.

10. Statistical/mean-reversion and weekend microstructure

• Weekends often show lower depth and propensity for squeezes. With sentiment fragile and shorts crowding near 110k, a lightweight order book can allow a 1–2% pop on limited buying.

11. Confluence summary

• Support confluence: Historical closes (109.25–110.12k), Fib 23.6% (109.68k), intraday demand shelf; bullish RSI divergences on 1h; lighter sell volume on new lows.
• Resistance confluence: 1h mid-band and supply (112.0–112.4k), Fib 38.2% (112.84k), prior close 113.21k.
• Net: The path of least resistance over 24h is a bounce into 112.0–112.9k unless 109.68k fails on a volume expansion.

Trading plan (tactical)

• Bias: Buy the dip into the 109.6–109.9k zone aiming for 112.8k.
• Entry: Staggered limit centered near 109,650 (Fib 23.6% pivot) to improve R/R vs current.
• Profit target (24h): 112,800 (Fib 38.2% confluence with 1h resistance).
• Suggested protective stop (not an execution instruction here): 108,400 (below Aug shelf), yielding ~1.25k risk for ~3.15k target (R/R ≈ 2.5:1).

Contingencies

• Bear break: A 1h close below ~109,600 on rising volume invalidates the bounce and opens 108,400 → 107,600. If triggered, stand aside or flip short only on a failed retest of 109.6k.
• Bull extension: A firm reclaim/hold above 112,840 (1–3 consecutive 1h closes) invites a continuation to 113,900 then 115,390 (50% Fib), but that is a lower-probability 24h outcome.

24h prediction

• Expect consolidation-to-bounce: intraday low risk to 109.2k–109.6k, high toward 112.8k–113.2k. Close likely in the 111.8k–112.8k band if the bounce sticks.