Bitcoin springs from capitulation: targeting the 61.8% retrace near 118k within 24 hours

Executive summary and directional bias:

• Base case (next 24h): Continuation of the rebound toward 117.5k–118.2k after a shallow pullback toward 114.2k–114.6k. Probability ~60%.
• Alternate case: Deeper retest of 113.3k–113.9k demand before bouncing. Probability ~30%.
• Bearish tail risk: Breakdown below 112.7k that reopens 110k–111k. Probability ~10%.
• Trade stance: Buy the dip. Optimal entry on a pullback into 114.4k ± 0.2k; target into the 61.8% retracement cluster around 117.9k.

Step-by-step, multi-lens analysis

1. Context and market structure (Daily)

• Regime shift highlights: • Late Sep breakout from 109k–114k range pushed BTC to 126.2k (Oct 6). • Sharp risk-off flush on Oct 10 to 104.6k (capitulation-type volume), followed by strong recovery to 115k today.
• Current structure: After a dramatic LL (104.6k) relative to Aug/Sept lows (~108k), price is in a reactive bounce setting higher intraday highs since today’s session open (1h series of HH/HLs from 109.7k to 115.3k). The daily structure is in repair mode; intraday structure is bullish.
• Key daily levels (derived from multiple tests and closes): • Resistance: 117.1k (Sept swing confluence), 117.95k–118.0k (61.8% retrace), 120.7k–121.7k (prior breakdown pocket and 78.6% fib), 122.3k–123.0k (supply shelf), 124.7k–126.2k (range highs). • Support: 114.0k–114.6k (prior resistance turned support, today’s value area), 113.3k–113.9k (composite demand), 112.0k–112.8k (fib 38.2%/prior closes), 110.7k–111.2k (recent daily closes), 109.0k–109.7k (Sept breakdown lows), 104.6k (capitulation low).

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20-day SMA ≈ 116.5k (calculated from the last 20 daily closes). Current price 115.1k is modestly below the 20-SMA, suggesting mean-reversion potential toward 116.5k.
• 10-day EMA (approximate) likely ~115.8k–116.1k after the sharp drop and partial rebound; price is approaching/near this dynamic mean.
• 50-day SMA (approximate) is flat-to-slightly rising around the mid-116k area, given the extended oscillation between 109k and 126k. The cluster of 10EMA/20SMA/50SMA between ~115.8k–116.7k forms a magnet zone above current price, enhancing upside gravitation over the next session.
• Interpretation: In a post-capitulation tape, price often reverts to clustered MAs; this supports a push into 116.5k–117k first, then tests of fib confluences above.

3. Fibonacci mapping (swing Oct 6 high to Oct 10 low)

• Swing: 126,198 → 104,582 (∆ = 21,616). • 38.2%: 112,840 (already reclaimed and held). • 50%: 115,390 (we are hovering just below/around this pivot right now). • 61.8%: 117,952 (prime upside magnet within 24h if momentum sustains). • 78.6%: 121,573 (stretch target, likely beyond 24h unless momentum accelerates).
• Interpretation: Market is wrestling with the 50% line; typical path is 50% → 61.8% tag if buyers maintain control. Expect resistance reactions near 117.9k.

4. Bollinger Bands (20,2) and volatility state

• With the 20-SMA near 116.5k and recent volatility expansion (Oct 10 range ~18k), the band width is elevated.
• Current price around the midline (slightly below the 20-SMA) implies space to travel toward the upper band. A reasonable upper-band estimate in this high-vol regime sits around 120.5k–121.5k, though a 24h reach into 117.5k–118.0k is the more probable first stop.
• Interpretation: Post-expansion often sees continuation probes in the direction of the current impulse (up since yesterday). Supports a controlled grind higher unless a fresh news shock arrives.

5. Momentum oscillators (multi-timeframe)

• Daily RSI (approximate): mid-40s to very low-50s after the rebound—neutral and rising. This leaves upside room before overbought conditions.
• 4h RSI: rising through mid-50s to low-60s, consistent with a trend day up; not yet dangerously overbought.
• 1h RSI: oscillating 60–70 on the up-legs; brief pullbacks relieve pressure. A minor dip toward 114.2k–114.6k would likely reset 1h RSI for another push toward 117–118k.
• MACD: Daily still negative but curling upward; 4h and 1h are in bullish cross/positive histogram territory, aligning with continued recovery attempts.
• Stochastics: 1h nearing overbought, favoring a tactical pullback entry; higher timeframes are mid-range and not a constraint on further upside.

6. Ichimoku lens (daily/4h approximations)

• Tenkan-sen (9-period midpoint) ~115.3k–115.5k. Price is attempting to reclaim this today—constructive.
• Kijun-sen (26-period midpoint) likely around 116.8k–117.2k given the recent extremes. This aligns with the first upside target zone.
• Cloud (Senkou span A/B) likely sits below price for much of late Sep/early Oct but the Oct 10 flush narrows distance. Still, reclaiming Tenkan then testing Kijun is a classic mean-reversion path. A decisive break and hold over Kijun opens 118k+ within the same session.

7. Volume and participation analysis

• Oct 10: Extreme volume spike with a long lower shadow—typical of capitulation and the formation of an intermediate demand pocket.
• Oct 11–12: Volume normalizing lower but still elevated; today’s 20:00 UTC hour printed a notable push candle into 115.3k with healthy participation.
• Read: The pattern reflects trapped shorts from the flush and dip-buyers defending pullbacks. Diminishing downside follow-through on red candles suggests absorption and a buyer’s tape on intraday timeframes.

8. VWAP/Value context (intraday)

• Session VWAP (approximate) sits below current price around 112.8k–113.6k after the long upward drift. Price is riding above VWAP, which typically supports buy-the-dip behavior into pullbacks toward 114s.
• Weekly VWAP will form off the new week open; given recent closes, early-week VWAP likely anchors around 113–114k initially, offering a supportive zone beneath spot.

9. ATR and expected range

• 14-day ATR (approximate) has expanded to ~6–7k following the shock day. A 24h move from 114.4k entry to 117.9k target is a 3.5k leg, comfortably within one ATR, hence realistic.

10. Candlestick and pattern diagnostics

• Oct 10 daily: Long-tailed candle signaling rejection of sub-105k prices.
• Oct 11: Smaller real body, inside day behavior—consolidation.
• Today (intraday): Trend day behavior with higher lows across hours, consistent with short covering and fresh longs.
• Potential micro-structure: A bull flag may form on the 1h via a shallow pullback to 114.4k followed by continuation.

11. Market profile/volume node inference

• Visible composite nodes: 113.3k–114.6k (recent acceptance), 116.8k–117.2k (historical congestion), 120.7k–121.7k (thick supply). The tape should seek the next area of acceptance; 116.8k–117.2k is the immediate magnet, with wicks possible to ~118k.

12. Liquidity, stops, and flow considerations

• Sell-side liquidity now likely rests below 114.0k and 113.3k from today’s HLs; buy stops accumulate above 116.0k, then 117.2k, then 117.95k (fib 61.8%). A run through 116.8k could trigger a stop cascade into the 117.9k pocket.

13. Confluence summary

• Upside magnets: 20SMA (116.5k), Ichimoku Kijun (≈117k), and 61.8% retrace (117.95k).
• Support shelf: 114.0k–114.6k with session value support and intraday HL structure.
• Volatility supports a 3–4k net move in 24h; momentum points up across intraday frames; daily mean reversion favors a test of 116.5–118.0k.

14. Risk management notes (tactical)

• Invalidation for the long idea sits below 112.7k (loss of 38.2% retrace and breakdown of the developing HL sequence). A prudent stop for active traders would be near 112.7k–112.9k, offering roughly 1.5–1.8k risk from the 114.4k entry to target ~3.5k reward (R:R near 2:1). Not required for the output fields but essential operationally.

15. 24-hour price path projection

• Preferred path: Early-session dip into 114.2k–114.6k, bought quickly; push/acceptance above 116.0k, probe 116.8k–117.2k, and momentum extension/wick toward 117.8k–118.0k. Expect first reaction/sell programs at 117.9k.
• Less likely but possible: If 114.0k fails cleanly, price tests 113.3k–113.9k; if absorbed, the subsequent move can still reach 116.8k–117.2k, but timing may stretch closer to the end of the 24h window.

Decision logic: Multiple independent tools (Fibs, MAs, Ichimoku, RSI/MACD, volume context) align for a buy-the-dip setup targeting 117.9k within a 24h horizon.