BTC poised for a 61.8% rebound: Buy the dip at 115.3k, target 117.9k within 24 hours

Executive summary

• Context: After an extreme selloff on 2025-10-10 (range ~18k, record volume), BTC rebounded and is now consolidating around 115.6k, sitting just below the 20D SMA but above the 50D SMA. Intraday structure shows higher lows with controlled pullbacks and steady absorption.
• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish. Base case is a grind higher toward 116.8k–118.0k (20D SMA and 61.8% retrace cluster), with dips to 115.2k–114.9k likely bought.
• Trade plan: Buy the dip near 115.3k; target 117.9k (61.8% retrace/supply shelf). Risk management (discussed below) favors tight stops under 114.0k (not part of schema, but recommended in analysis).

Step-by-step technical analysis (multi-timeframe, multi-method)

1. Price action and market structure

• Daily structure:
  • 2025-10-10 crash candle: Low 104,582 and close 113,214 on extreme volume, often marks a capitulation/selling climax.
  • 2025-10-11/12: Stabilization (small real body) and strong green recovery day closing near highs (115,170).
  • 2025-10-13: Intraday continuation and consolidation; price holds above 114k with higher lows.
• Hourly structure (10/13):
  • Sequence of higher lows from ~113,987 (14:00) to ~114,174–114,424–114,855 and higher highs into 115,986, then tight consolidation.
  • Break of the intraday descending line from 10/09–10/10 is confirmed; current pullbacks are shallow, indicative of demand presence.

2. Key levels (supports/resistances, supply/demand, liquidity)

• Major supports:
  • 114.0k–114.8k intraday demand band (multiple rejections today around 114.4–114.8).
  • 112.8k (38.2% Fib retrace of 126,198→104,582 swing).
  • 111.3k (daily S1 from pivots; see below) and 110.8k (10/11 close).
• Major resistances:
  • 116.8k (20D SMA; frequent mean-reversion magnet)
  • 117.9k–118.0k (61.8% Fib retrace + prior congestion)
  • 119.6k (R2 pivot) and 120.7k–121k (overhead supply area from 10/02–10/09 before breakdown).

3. Moving averages

• 10D SMA ≈ 119.2k (above price): short-term trend still recovering from the shock.
• 20D SMA ≈ 116.8k (above price): near-term mean at/below first resistance; implies room for mean reversion bounce.
• 50D SMA ≈ 114.6k (below price): medium-term trend support reclaimed; constructive.
• Interpretation: Price sandwiched between 20D (resistance) and 50D (support). Typical resolution is a test of 20D; a daily close back above 20D would improve momentum.

4. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Mid-band ~20D SMA at ~116.8k; lower band expanded post-crash. Current price below mid-band yet pressing higher; common path is a tag of the mid-band on continuation. Bands are still somewhat wide, suggesting elevated but contracting volatility; post-capitulation mean reversion likely.

5. Fibonacci retracements (swing 10/06 high 126,198 → 10/10 low 104,582)

• 23.6% ≈ 109.68k; 38.2% ≈ 112.84k; 50% ≈ 115.39k; 61.8% ≈ 117.94k; 78.6% ≈ 121.58k.
• Price currently hugging the 50% (115.39k), which is acting as a pivot. Next logical magnet on continuation: 61.8% at ~117.94k (confluence with resistance cluster).

6. Pivots (Classic), derived from prior daily (10/12): H=115,805; L=109,716; C=115,170

• PP ≈ 113,564; R1 ≈ 117,412; R2 ≈ 119,653; S1 ≈ 111,323; S2 ≈ 107,475.
• Current trading above PP and below R1; typical intraday path is toward R1 if buyers maintain control. R1 aligns with 116.8–117.4k target band.

7. RSI (14)

• Daily: Estimated mid-40s to low-50s after the sharp downdraft and rebound; not overbought; headroom to the upside.
• Hourly: Mid-to-high 50s with higher-low structure vs price—subtle bullish momentum divergence after the morning dip.
• Interpretation: Momentum reset; no overbought constraints near-term; favors a further push higher before any larger pullback.

8. MACD

• Daily: Bearish cross occurred with the crash; histogram negative but appears to be contracting as price stabilizes (early signs of momentum inflection).
• Hourly: MACD crossed above signal during the NY session, histogram positive; pullbacks have not flipped it negative, consistent with controlled uptrend.

9. Stochastic / Stoch RSI

• Hourly: Oscillations from overbought are resolving with sideways price (bullish consolidation rather than sharp retracement). This often precedes another leg up if support holds.
• Daily: Off oversold levels; slopes turning up but not yet extended.

10. Volume, OBV, and tape clues

• 10/10 volume spike signifies capitulation/selling climax; 10/12 strong green day volume supports the idea of demand absorption around 110–114k.
• 10/13 up-moves were accompanied by visible volume on 19:00–20:00; pullbacks lighter—a constructive volume pattern.
• OBV (qualitative): Lower than pre-crash but curling up; suggests accumulation on dips.

11. VWAP and session behavior

• Anchored to 10/13 session open (~115,091), price has spent most of the US session above this level, indicating buyers in control on the day. Repeated reclaims after shallow dips point to supportive intraday VWAP dynamics.

12. Ichimoku (directional context)

• Daily: Price likely below the cloud with Kijun estimated ~118–119k and Tenkan now catching down. Being below Kumo is a headwind, but near-term the Kijun often acts as a magnet post-dislocation—aligns with targets in the high 117s to low 119s over 1–3 days.
• Intraday (hourly/4h): Price above Tenkan/Kijun, with Tenkan supportive; cloud thin above 116–117k, improving odds of a test.

13. Keltner/ATR

• Daily ATR elevated post-crash (~4.5–5.5k est.). A one-day move of ~2–3k is statistically common in this regime, easily accommodating a push from 115.6k to 117.9k within 24 hours, or a dip to 114k without breaking trend.

14. Donchian channels (20D)

• High ≈ 126.2k; low ≈ 104.6k; midline ≈ 115.4k. Price sits just above the midline—a constructive sign after reclaim; next logical test is toward the upper third of the band (~117–118.5k) if momentum continues.

15. Elliott Wave (intraday micro-count)

• From the 10/10 low, wave 1 rebound into 10/12, wave 2 shallow pullback early 10/13, wave 3 intraday push to ~115.99k, current consolidation resembles a wave 4 flag; projects a wave 5 extension toward 116.8–117.5k. A larger degree corrective rally could carry into 117.9k (61.8%).

16. Wyckoff lens

• 10/10 = Selling Climax (SC), 10/11–10/12 Automatic Rally (AR) and Secondary Test (ST) behavior; 10/13 shows Last Point of Support (LPS) characteristics on intraday dips. Phase D markup within a range suggests rallies to test overhead supply (117–119k) before any broader re-accumulation or distribution decision.

17. Gann/geometry (simple time/price)

• The 50% price level of the crash range (115.39k) is acting as an equilibrium. Persistence above tilts the balance upward toward the 61.8% (117.94k). Time-wise, two sessions post-climax commonly bring a second thrust higher, aligning with the next 24h window.

18. Confluence map and scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Confluences to the upside:
  • 20D SMA ~116.8k, Pivot R1 ~117.4k, 61.8% Fib ~117.94k.
  • Hourly trend up; momentum not overbought; volume behavior supportive.
• Confluences to the downside:
  • Intraday demand 114.4–114.8k; 50% Fib 115.39k; 50D SMA ~114.6k; S1 ~111.3k further below.
• Scenarios:
  • Base (≈60%): Drift higher; test 116.8k then 117.4–117.9k. Close near 116.5–117.5k.
  • Pullback-then-go (≈25%): Liquidity sweep to 115.2k or even 114.8–114.4k, then rally to 116.8–117.4k by end of window.
  • Bear surprise (≈15%): Lose 114.4k with momentum, test 113.3–112.8k (38.2% Fib) before stabilizing. Probability lower unless macro shock or large seller reappears.

19. Risk management and trade construction

• Entry: Prefer a limit buy near 115.3k to capture a mild pullback into the 50% Fib/VWAP zone. Secondary tactical entry (if momentum breakout): above 116.0–116.2k on volume.
• Stop (advisory, not in output fields): Below 113.95k (under today’s structure and just under the 114k shelf).
• Target: 117.9k (61.8% fib + supply shelf) within 24h; optional partial at 116.8–117.4k (R1/20D SMA band) for risk harvesting.
• Reward-to-risk example: Entry 115.3k, TP 117.9k (+2.6k), stop 113.95k (−1.35k) → ~1.9:1 R:R.

20. Bottom line

• The post-capitulation mean reversion setup, intraday higher lows, location at the 50% retrace, and multi-tool confluence into 116.8–117.9k support a Buy-the-dip stance for the next 24 hours. Overhead supply increases above 118k; take profits into that zone.

Prediction (24h)

• Expected range: 114.4k–118.0k, with a bias to close in the upper half of the range if 115.2k holds.
• Path: Minor dip to ~115.2k → advance to 116.8k → extension toward 117.4–117.9k.