BTC poised for a post-flush pop: hourly inverse H&S targets 115.5k within 24 hours

Note: This is market commentary and education, not investment advice. Use your own judgment and risk controls.

Summary view (next 24h): After the Oct 10 capitulation flush and subsequent base-building, BTC is showing a constructive intraday structure with a breakout from a small inverse head-and-shoulders on the hourly. Expect an upward drift toward 114.8–115.6k, with an initial test of 113.5–114.0k supply. Optimal plan is to buy a modest pullback toward 112.6–112.9k with invalidation on sustained hourly closes back below ~112.1k.

Step-by-step technical analysis

1. Market structure and trend

• Daily trend: Post-Oct 1 breakout to 126k, a sharp reversal culminated in a capitulation day on Oct 10 (huge range and volume). Since then, BTC has been digesting in a 110–116k band. Price is below the 20D SMA, indicating short-term downtrend, but the violent flush followed by stabilization suggests a base rather than immediate continuation lower.
• Intraday (hourly) structure for Oct 14: Progressive higher lows after the European session: 10:00 low ~110.73k → 13:00 ~110.94k → 14:00 ~111.55k → 15:00 ~112.74k. 20:00 close at 112.98k, 20:58 print at 112.99k. That forms an intraday uptrend with a clean neckline near 112.8–113.0k.
• Key levels: Support 110.3k (today’s low), 109.0–110.1k (late Sep pivot), 108.4k (Aug 29 low). Resistance 113.5–114.0k (local supply/0.786 fib), 115.0–115.6k (pivot/neckline extension), 116.1–116.3k (daily resistance/R1 zone).

2. Moving averages (SMA/EMA)

• 20D SMA ≈ 116.8k (rough calc over last 20 closes). Price at ~113k is below, implying short-term bearish bias but with mean-reversion potential toward the SMA.
• 50D SMA is likely ~115–116k given the July–Sept distribution; price is slightly below. A tag of 115–116k in the next 24–48h would be a standard reversion test.
• Intraday EMAs (1h): Price reclaimed and is riding above short EMAs (e.g., 8/21 EMA proxy via higher lows), consistent with the inverse H&S breakout.

3. RSI (momentum)

• Daily RSI (est. 14) is roughly neutral to slightly bearish (high 40s/low 50s), consistent with consolidation after a flush.
• 1h RSI has shifted from oversold toward mid-50s to low-60s on the bounce, indicating positive momentum without being overbought, leaving room for a push into 114–115k.

4. MACD (trend/momentum)

• Daily MACD likely negative post-crash but flattening; histogram contraction suggests bearish momentum is waning.
• 1h MACD crossed up earlier today; signal line slope is positive. As long as price holds above 112.1–112.3k, hourly momentum supports follow-through.

5. Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

• Daily: Middle band around the 20D SMA (~116.8k). Price is in the lower half of the envelope after piercing the lower band on Oct 10; typical behavior is mean reversion toward the mid-band, arguing for an upside drift toward 115–117k.
• Hourly: Bands expanded on the morning selloff, then contracted as price coiled and pushed upward. A band expansion up is likely if 113.5–114.0k breaks.

6. Ichimoku (contextual)

• 1h: Price has reclaimed the Tenkan and is stalking the Kijun near 113.2–113.6k. A clean close above the Kijun and a thinning cloud overhead would typically open a path to 114.8–115.6k within the session.
• Daily: Price under the cloud baseline equivalents, so swings are counter-trend at the daily level; treat targets conservatively.

7. Fibonacci mapping (Oct 10 low to Oct 13 high)

• Range: 104,582 → 116,020 (11,438). Key extensions from the low: 0.618 at ~111,658 (held), 0.786 at ~113,577 (next resistance), 0.886 ~114,700, full retest 116,020. Current price 112,993 sits between 61.8% and 78.6%, with a likely magnet at 113.6–114.7k if the neckline holds.

8. Pivots (classic, based on Oct 13 H/L/C ≈ 116,020/113,822/115,271)

• PP ≈ 115,038; R1 ≈ 116,254; S1 ≈ 114,056; R2 ≈ 117,237; S2 ≈ 112,839.
• Today’s late print ~112,993 is just above S2. Reversions from S2 back to S1/PP are common in mean-reverting environments. That places 114.06k and 115.04k as nearby upside magnets.

9. Volume/participation

• Oct 10–12 saw extreme volume; today’s partial day is elevated versus quieter days, showing continued two-sided interest. The heaviest recent volume traded in the 110–113k zone, building a value area that can underpin further tests higher.

10. Volatility and expected range

• Daily ATR(14) inflated by Oct 10 spike; rough estimate ~5.0–5.5k. A 24h expected range of ±2.5–3.0k around the session mean is reasonable. From 113k, that projects roughly 110–116k boundaries, with skew slightly upward given intraday trend and mean-reversion vectors.

11. Pattern analysis

• Clear inverse head-and-shoulders on 1h: Head near 110.0k, shoulders ~110.7k/111.2k, neckline ~112.8–113.0k. Measured move ≈ 2.5–3.0k from neckline → 115.3–116.0k potential within 24h if the breakout sustains.
• Candles: After a deep lower wick this morning (~110.3k) buyers defended, and subsequent hourly candles printed higher lows and closes toward the top of their ranges—bullish microstructure.

12. VWAP/Anchored VWAP (qualitative)

• Session VWAP likely clustered around 112.6–112.9k given intraday distribution. Price holding above session VWAP turns it into support; a retest entry near VWAP is attractive for risk-defined longs.

13. Liquidity/stop runs

• Obvious liquidity pools likely sit above 113.5k (0.786 fib) and 115.0–115.3k (prior day close/pivot). Sweep-and-fill dynamics may briefly reject at 113.6k before continuation. Below, liquidity resides at 112.2k and 111.2k; a quick dip into those levels could be a final shakeout before the move higher.

14. Elliott wave (light touch)

• Post-flush corrective structure appears to be an ABC where A-bottomed Oct 10, B topped Oct 12–13, and current C may be subdividing with an impulsive intraday leg up targeting 115–116k to complete the corrective retrace.

15. Confluence and scenario mapping

• Bull case (60%): Hold 112.3–112.8k on retests → break 113.6k (0.786) → tag 114.7k (0.886) → extend to 115.0–115.6k (PP/R1 zone) within 24h.
• Base case (30%): Chop between 112.0–113.8k, multiple VWAP retests; net drift upward, closing near 114k.
• Bear case (10%): Lose 112.1k on hourly close → 111.2k test → possible sweep 110.7k. A daily close below ~111k would negate the long setup; not the primary expectation within the next 24h.

Trade plan and risk management

• Bias: Long on pullbacks, targeting a push into 114.8–115.6k over 24h.
• Optimal entry: 112.7–112.8k (VWAP/neckline retest). If momentum accelerates, a break-and-retest of 113.6k can be used for a momentum add, but primary plan favors buying the dip.
• Take profit: Scale near 114.7k and 115.5k. For this single-output plan, we set TP at 115.5k to capture the measured-move/PP confluence.
• Invalidation: Hourly close <112.1k or a fast rejection that converts 112.3k into resistance; in such case, expect 111.2k/110.7k tests.
• Position sizing: Given elevated ATR, size smaller than usual; a 1.3–1.6% stop (to ~111.0–111.3k) versus ~2.4% upside to 115.5k keeps R:R near 1:1.5–1:2.

24-hour price prediction

• Path: Early retest to ~112.6–112.8k → push to 113.6k → consolidation → extension toward 114.7–115.5k by the end of the 24h window, assuming macro news is quiet.
• Expected range: 111.2k–115.6k, skewed to the upside; base case close 114.0k–115.0k.

Bottom line: The confluence of an hourly inverse H&S breakout, mean reversion tendencies toward the 20D mid-band/pivots, and improving intraday momentum supports a tactical long aimed at 115.5k, with invalidation on a sustained break below ~112.1k.