BTC poised for a 24‑hour relief pop toward 110k after capitulation flush

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Tactical rebound higher (mean‑reversion) after a capitulation‑like intraday flush to ~103.6k and a successful base around 104.7–106.3k. Expect a grind toward 108.4–109.9k with optional wicks into 110.0–110.6k before encountering heavier supply.
• Setup: Intraday higher lows, bullish momentum inflection on 1H, price riding up from the lower daily Bollinger band, and a 0.382 Fib retracement magnet near ~110.5k. Risk remains elevated; broader daily trend is still down, so treat as a counter‑trend bounce.
• Trade idea: Buy pullbacks toward 106.4–106.9k (limit anchor 106.8k), target 109.8–110.5k. Invalidation for the idea sits below 104.6k (analysis only).

Market regime and structure

• Volatility: Expanded. 7‑day daily ATR ≈ 4.0–4.5k (~3.7–4.2% of spot). Hourly ATR ~800–1200. Expect 24h range of ~5–7k given Friday → weekend liquidity.
• Trend (Daily): Bearish. After the Oct 10th rug (122k → 113k, record daily volume), rallies have been sold. Price is below the likely 20/50D SMAs and under the mid‑September value area (110–116k). However, the last two sessions show deceleration of downside momentum.
• Trend (1H/4H): Transitioning from downtrend to base. Intraday prints: low 103.6k at 10:00Z, then HLs forming (12:00 low 105.29k; 14:00 low 104.68k > 10:00 low), higher highs into 106.72k (15:00), then steady bid to 107.18k (20:00). This is early structure for a relief rally.

Key levels

• Support: 106.3–106.4k (1H shelf), 105.0–105.3k (pullback pivot), 104.7–105.0k (14:00 low area), 103.6k (intraday capitulation low). Below 103.6k opens 102.5–101.8k air pocket.
• Resistance: 107.2k (20:00 high), 108.4–108.9k (1H supply/MA cluster), 109.2k (recent 1H swing high), 109.8–110.6k (round number + 0.382 retracement zone), 111.7–112.7k (0.50 retrace + prior September node; likely heavy).

Moving averages

• Daily: Price is below estimated 20/50D SMAs (both ~113–116k region) and well under the daily 200D trend proxy. This confirms macro bearish bias but also leaves room for mean‑reversion back toward the 20D mid‑band later, not necessarily in 24h.
• 1H: Price reclaimed the 20‑EMA and is challenging the 50‑EMA; the 200‑EMA likely sits near 108.8–109.3k, aligning with first resistance. Expect initial hesitation there.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI (Daily): Likely in low‑30s after the selloff; near oversold and turning up → supports a bounce.
• RSI (1H): From sub‑30 at the morning flush to mid‑40s/50s on the recovery; classic bullish reset. There’s a subtle bullish divergence: price made a higher low at 14:00 vs. 10:00 while momentum improved.
• Stochastics (1H/4H): Likely cycling up from oversold; room to run until ~109–110k.

MACD

• Daily MACD below zero and below signal (bearish), but histogram contraction suggests downside momentum is waning.
• 1H MACD has crossed up from deeply negative territory, consistent with a developing inflection.

Bollinger Bands

• Daily: Bands expanded post‑crash. Price is lifting off/near the lower band (around 106–107k). Mean‑reversion to the 20‑day basis line (~113–114k) is plausible medium‑term; near‑term, expect a move toward the mid‑band on lower timeframes (~109–111k).
• 1H: Price pushing the upper band bands during the rebound, indicating short‑term momentum but also where first supply lurks near 108.5–109k.

Ichimoku

• Daily: Price below cloud; Kijun/Span A likely above ~113–116k. Macro resistance overhead remains heavy.
• 1H: Price attempting to clear the Tenkan/Kijun; a push through 108.5–109.0k would likely put price into/above the thin cloud, opening 109.8–110.5k.

Fibonacci mapping

• Swing reference: 10/9 close ~121.71k to today’s intraday low ~103.60k → range ≈ 18.11k.
  • 38.2%: 103.6k + 0.382*18.11k ≈ 110.52k
  • 50%: ≈ 112.65k
  • 61.8%: ≈ 114.79k
• The first meaningful retracement magnet is ~110.5k. This aligns with psychological 110k and prior micro supply.

Volume/participation

• Oct 10th was blow‑off sell volume (capitulation characteristics); subsequent sessions show elevated but declining sell pressure and some absorption between 104–107k. Price acceptance built around 106–107k today suggests buyers are stepping in on dips. A high‑volume node exists at 110–112k from September, likely acting as a magnet/resistance combination on a bounce.

VWAP and mean reversion

• Intraday VWAP (today) is likely around the mid‑106s to low‑107s after the morning flush and afternoon recovery. Price trading slightly above/near VWAP supports a continuation grind higher while VWAP slopes up. Expect supply to cluster into the prior 1H value area 108.5–109.2k.

Market structure and price action

• Today printed: capitulation low (103.6k) → strong bull candle at 15:00 (close at 106.72k) → series of higher lows on diminishing downside tails → test of 107.18k at 20:00 → tight consolidation 106.4–107.2k. That is classic base‑building before a measured leg to the next supply block.
• Liquidity pools: Resting stops above 107.2k and 108.0k likely get run on a breakout, targeting 108.9–109.2k. Above that, 110.0/110.5k holds clustered liquidity from prior breakdown levels and Fib confluence.

Elliott/Wyckoff framing (supplemental)

• The Oct 10 leg resembles a Wave 3 down or Wyckoff markdown. Today’s action has hallmarks of an automatic rally/secondary test on lower timeframes. A corrective Wave 4/A‑B‑C style bounce toward 0.382 (≈110.5k) is reasonable before another decision.

Risk factors and invalidation

• If price loses 106.0k with momentum, expect a retest of 104.7k. A break below 104.7k re‑opens the 103.6k low; below that, 102.5–101.8k can be tagged quickly in thin weekend trade. That is the invalidation area for the long‑bounce thesis.

Path projection for next 24 hours

• Base case (≈55–60%): Early pullback to 106.4–106.9k gets bought → breakout over 107.2k → impulse into 108.4–109.2k → stall/flag → extension into 109.8–110.5k (Fib 0.382) with potential wick to 110.8k. Close in the 109–110k region.
• Bearish alt (≈30–35%): Rejection at 107.2–108.0k → loss of 106.3k → probe 105.0k → downside sweep of 104.7k; if 104.7k fails, quick tag of 103.6k before another bounce attempt.
• Low‑probability squeeze (≈10–15%): If 109.2k breaks on strong breadth, vacuum up to 111.2–112.0k could occur; less likely within 24h unless a catalyst hits.

Trade plan synthesis

• Rationale to Buy: Oversold daily conditions, intraday bullish divergence, reclaim of short MAs on 1H, bounce off the lower daily Bollinger band, and clean upside liquidity targets into 109.8–110.5k. Reward/risk favorable for a tactical long provided entries are on dips.
• Entry: Limit near 106.8k to capture the common retest of the 1H shelf/VWAP zone.
• Target: 109.8–110.5k, with a core TP at 110.3k to front‑run supply and the 0.382 Fib.
• Invalidation (analysis only): Below 104.6k (under the HL structure), the bounce thesis is compromised; would flip to short into 103.6k/102.5k.

Bottom line

• Tactical long favored for a 24h mean‑reversion pop toward 110k. Macro trend remains down; this is a counter‑trend trade with elevated volatility—manage size accordingly.