BTC poised for a relief bounce: Buy the 106.9k dip, aim for 109.7k–110k within 24 hours

Executive summary and 24h view

• Bias (next 24h): Mild relief bounce within a broader short-term downtrend. Expect a choppy mean‑reversion move up toward 108.8k–110.0k if 106.4k–106.9k support holds.
• Expected 24h range: 105.5k–110.2k; most probable path is a grind higher after an early dip.
• Trade idea: Buy the dip near 106.7k–106.9k targeting 109.5k–110.0k.

Multi‑timeframe technical picture

1. Market structure (Daily)

• Regime shift: After the Oct 1–6 breakout to 126.2k, price produced a series of lower highs and lower lows. The decisive breakdown on Oct 10 (largest daily volume in the sample) flipped the structure bearish. Subsequent closes have stair‑stepped down: 115.2k → 113.1k → 110.8k → 108.2k → 106.47k.
• Current location: Price sits near a local demand shelf 106.4k–106.9k, just above an exhaustion wick low at 103.6k (Oct 17). The clustering of closes around 106.6k–107.2k hints at base‑building/absorption after capitulation.
• Key daily levels • Supports: 106.4k–106.9k (current base), 104.0k–104.5k (wick zone), 102.8k–103.6k (capitulation pocket).
  • Resistances: 108.2k–109.7k (late‑Sep supply/close cluster), 110.8k (Oct 11 close/round number), 113.2k (Oct 10 close), 114.9k (50% retrace of Oct range), 117.6k (61.8% retrace / underside of 20‑DMA region).

2. Market structure (Intraday: hourly 17–18 Oct)

• Price has carved a tight range 106.6k–107.4k for ~24h with repeated rejections near 107.3k–107.5k and consistent bids above 106.6k. This is a classic post‑dump balance area.
• Micro pattern: Gentle ascending micro‑lows into static resistance (107.3k) forms a small falling‑to‑flat wedge/coil. A clean hourly close above 107.35k typically releases to the next liquidity pocket around 108.2k/108.8k.

Trend and moving averages

• 20‑day SMA (approx): ~116.4k. Price at ~107.1k is ~8% below the 20‑DMA → short‑term trend bearish, but distance suggests mean‑reversion potential.
• 50‑day SMA (approx): trending ~115–117k from August–September closes; price is well below → medium‑term trend bearish.
• 8/21‑EMA (Daily): 8‑EMA likely near 111–112k; 21‑EMA near 115–116k. Bearish alignment (8 < 21) with a growing negative spread, yet price is stretched beneath the 8‑EMA, which often precedes a snapback toward the fast average.

Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (Daily, est.): Low 30s following the multi‑day selloff and capitulation candle on Oct 10 → oversold territory; positive for bounce risk.
• RSI (Hourly): Mid‑40s, lifting from prior sub‑40 readings → improving but not overbought; room to run to 55–60 on a pop.
• Stochastic (Daily): Likely embedded low but curling up after the 103.6k wick → early mean‑reversion signal.
• MACD (Daily): Below zero with a wide negative histogram; however, histogram contraction is likely starting as price bases → momentum downtrend easing.
• MACD (Hourly): Near flatline; small positive cross attempts on each push above 107.1k suggest a nascent bullish bias inside the range.

Volatility and bands

• ATR (Daily): Expanded meaningfully post‑Oct 10; daily swings of 4–7k are feasible. Into the weekend, realized vol often tapers, favoring range‑bound mean reversion.
• Bollinger Bands (20‑day): Price hugging/lurking under the lower band (estimated lower band ~108–109k). Trading back inside bands frequently triggers a band‑mean revert toward the 20‑DMA or at least the mid‑band; near‑term target aligns with 109–110k.

Fibonacci mapping (Oct 6 high → Oct 17 low)

• Range: 126,198 → 103,598 (~22.6k points).
• 38.2%: ~112.2k.
• 50%: ~114.9k.
• 61.8%: ~117.6k.
• Implication: A first bounce typically tests 38.2%–50% over days, not hours. For the next 24h, 109–110.8k is a realistic waypoint; 112.2k would require a broader risk‑on impulse.

Ichimoku (Daily, qualitative)

• Price below cloud; span likely turning down; conversion below base → bearish frame. Yet price is extended beneath conversion/base lines, which historically favors a reversion attempt toward the conversion line on short horizons.

Volume, liquidity, and tape

• Oct 10 volume spike (largest in dataset) has hallmarks of capitulation. Follow‑through selling persisted but on declining volume into Oct 17–18, indicating seller momentum is waning.
• The current hourly range shows tight spreads and frequent partial rejections near 107.3k ⇒ passive sellers still present, but absorption by bids near 106.6k grows. A sweep below 106.6k without follow‑through would likely spring price back up (liquidity grab).

Pattern diagnostics

• Potential falling wedge from Oct 6 peak into Oct 17–18 base. Breaks of minor descending trendline typically target the prior swing supply (108.8k–110.8k).
• Daily candlesticks: Oct 17 printed a long‑wicked candle (hammer‑like) off 103.6k; today is a small‑bodied indecision candle near support. A green close today would complete a 2‑candle stabilization sequence.

Confluence of levels for the next 24h

• Support confluence: 106.4k–106.9k (hourly base) sits just under today’s VWAP region (qualitatively) and just above the wick pocket; it’s the best‑defined intraday dip‑buy zone.
• Resistance ladder: 107.3k–107.5k (range cap), 108.2k (Aug 30 close), 108.8k–109.7k (late‑Sep supply/close cluster), 110.8k (Oct 11 close/round number).
• Most probable path: Early session test/sweep of 106.7k → breakout over 107.35k → magnet toward 108.2k and 108.8k; if momentum holds, extension into 109.7k–110.0k.

Risk assessment and invalidation

• Bear continuation risk: A decisive hourly close below 106.3k opens 105.5k and then 104.0k–104.5k; below 104k exposes the 103.6k wick and potential trend acceleration.
• Upside failure risk: Rejection again at 107.3k, repeated lower highs, and a loss of 106.7k base would keep price pinned and favors a stop‑out on longs.

Tools and techniques used (and impact on view)

• Moving Averages (SMA/EMA): Bearish alignment confirms trend down, but price extension below fast MAs signals mean‑reversion probability is high in 24h.
• RSI/Stochastic: Oversold daily, stabilizing hourly → supportive of a relief rally.
• MACD: Negative but flattening → momentum downtrend is tiring, allowing a bounce.
• Bollinger Bands: Price at/lower than lower band → tendency to revert back inside bands; 109–110k aligns with mid‑band push.
• Fibonacci Retracements: Near‑term targets <38.2% retrace; 109–110.8k fits early bounce behavior.
• Market Structure/S-R/Trendlines: Hourly base 106.6k with descending micro‑trendline overhead; break → 108.2k/108.8k.
• Volume/Capitulation Read: Post‑spike declining sell volume → seller exhaustion; conducive to bounce.
• ATR/Volatility: Elevated ATR but compressing intraday → breakout from coil has room to travel 1.5–3.0k without overextension.

Trading plan (24h tactical)

• Setup: Mean‑reversion long from the 106.7k–106.9k demand shelf after a liquidity sweep.
• Entry: Staggered bids around 106,750–106,950; core ref at 106,900.
• Target: First target 108,200; main target 109,500–110,000.
• Invalidation (discipline): Hourly close <106,300 (analysis only; not part of the order fields).
• R:R: Entry 106.9k, TP 109.75k ≈ +2.7% vs. a notional stop 106.3k (‑0.6%) or 105.8k (‑1.0%) gives favorable R:R if executed on a sweep.

Price forecast for next 24h

• Base case: 60% odds of a drift higher into 108.8k–109.7k.
• Bear case: 25% odds of a breakdown through 106.3k toward 105.5k–104.5k.
• Bull extension: 15% odds of a squeeze to 110.8k if 109.7k is reclaimed early with momentum.

Bottom line

• The broader daily trend remains bearish, but conditions are short‑term oversold with a defined intraday base. Probability favors a tactical bounce toward 109–110k over the next 24 hours. Execute a patient buy‑the‑dip near 106.9k with profit taking before heavy 109.7k–110.8k resistance.