BTC stalls at the 23.6% Fib wall: Short the pop into 110k, aim for a fade to 106.7

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis (using only the data provided)

1. Market structure and trend context

• Higher timeframe (daily):

  • Structure: A series of lower highs since the 126,198 peak (2025-10-06) and a momentum break on 2025-10-10 with a wide-range selloff (low 104,582, massive volume). Subsequent bounces have failed to reclaim the late-September/early-October distribution band (112k–116k), keeping the dominant daily trend down.
  • Key pivot days: 2025-10-10 (volume climax and range expansion) and 2025-10-17 (cycle low at 103,598 intraday). Current price 108,935 trades well below the prior breakdown shelf around 112k–114k.
  • Implication: Primary trend remains bearish; current rally appears corrective within a broader downtrend.

• Intermediate timeframe (4H/1H derived from hourly data):

  • Structure: A clean intraday up-leg from ~106.2–106.9 up to 109.46 today (2025-10-19) with higher lows and higher highs. However, price is now stalling into a dense resistance pocket between 109.4–110.7 formed by prior daily closes, round-number psychology, and fib confluence.
  • Implication: Short-term bullish momentum fading into resistance; ripe for a mean reversion pullback unless bulls can force a decisive close above 110–110.7 and hold.

2. Support/Resistance mapping (confluence-based)

• Immediate resistance:

  • 108,934–109,010: 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire 126,198 → 103,598 downswing sits at ~108,934; today’s close trades right there. Multiple hourly candles show hesitation just above 109k.
  • 109,45–109,80: Intraday high 109,465; hourly supply earlier. Likely liquidity pocket where late longs trail stops and shorts add.
  • 110,70: Prominent daily S/R and round-number cluster; breakdown shelf from late September/early October acting as overhead supply.
  • 112,23: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the same downswing.

• Immediate support:

  • 108,50–108,70: Intraday shelf/POC zone (hourly consolidation before the push to 109.46).
  • 107,85–107,20: Layered intraday supports; the midpoint of the day’s thrust and prior hourly bases.
  • 106,70: Confluence of 10/18–10/19 session support and near yesterday’s daily pivot support bands.
  • 106,16: Today’s session low and the deepest test inside the current up-swing; critical invalidation for the short-term uptrend.
  • 103,60–104,60: Crash-day and 10/17 cycle lows — major demand if tested (unlikely in the next 24h unless another shock).

3. Fibonacci framework (swing from 126,198 high to 103,598 low)

• Range = 22,599.64.
• Key retracements:
  • 23.6% = 103,598 + 0.236*22,599.64 ≈ 108,934 (exactly where price is stalling now).
  • 38.2% ≈ 112,239.
  • 50% ≈ 114,898.
  • 61.8% ≈ 117,557.
• Implication: First fib resistance has capped the bounce intraday. Next upside targets only unlock if 110,7 is reclaimed, leading toward 112,2 then 114,9. Failure at 23.6% often produces a retest of the prior intraday demand around 106,7–107,3.

4. Moving averages and trend filters (approximations from provided closes)

• Daily 20SMA: Estimated near 114–116k after the early-October pop and subsequent decline. Price at 108,9 is well below — bearish bias.
• Daily 50SMA: Estimated slightly higher than the 20SMA earlier; still above price — confirms medium-term downtrend.
• Short-term EMAs (8/21 on daily): Price modestly below the 21EMA and near/just above the 8EMA. This combination indicates a counter-trend bounce approaching resistance, not a confirmed trend change.
• Implication: MA stack points to sell-the-rip conditions until the 20/50SMA band is reclaimed.

5. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI: Likely mid-40s after the crash, reflecting weak but stabilizing momentum; below 50 keeps the daily bearish tilt.
• 1H RSI: Reached near-overbought during the 109.46 spike and appears to be flattening; potential bearish divergence risk versus the earlier 107.85 push.
• Stochastics (1H): High/rolling over — consistent with near-term exhaustion at resistance.
• MACD:
  • Daily: Negative with histogram contraction (bear momentum easing). This often precedes a bounce, which we’ve seen, but not yet a bullish cross.
  • 1H: Positive but flattening, signaling momentum waning as resistance is met.
• Implication: Oscillators support a tactical pullback from current levels unless fresh upside impulse arrives quickly.

6. Volatility and range analysis

• Daily ATR expanded sharply after 2025-10-10 and remains elevated. Realistic 24h move: 3,000–4,000 dollars.
• Today’s intraday range hit R3 extension (see pivots below), another sign of short-term stretch.
• Implication: With price pushing the upper intraday envelope, probabilities favor mean reversion toward 107–108 if 109.5–110 fails.

7. Bollinger Bands

• Daily BBs: Basis (20SMA) up near 115k, price rides the lower half of the band — a typical downtrend signature with occasional reversion toward the basis capped by sellers.
• 1H BBs: Basis around 107.8–108.0; price tagged/rode the upper band near 109.4–109.5. Band ride without strong volume continuation often reverts to the mid-band (107.8–108.1).
• Implication: Favors a pullback to the 1H mid-band area if 109.5–110 zone remains intact.

8. Ichimoku (trend-state snapshot)

• Daily: Price below the cloud; Tenkan below Kijun; lagging line under price — bearish regime.
• 1H: Price recently above a thin cloud, but forward cloud likely flat into 109–110, signaling resistance with limited thrust unless a surge breaks and holds above 110.7.
• Implication: Any intraday strength confronts system-level resistance ahead; trend bias remains down on daily.

9. Pivot points (based on 2025-10-18 H/L/C: 107,491/106,387/107,198)

• Pivot P ≈ 107,025; R1 ≈ 107,663; R2 ≈ 108,129; R3 ≈ 108,767.
• Today’s price extended beyond R3 to 109,465 — statistically stretched day. Post-R3 extensions have higher odds of mean-reverting toward R2/R1 unless trend acceleration continues.
• Implication: Being above R3 into close increases odds of a pullback to 108.1–107.7 area within 24h.

10. Volume and accumulation/Distribution

• Massive distribution on 2025-10-10; subsequent sessions show lower but still elevated volume on down days versus up days. The latest bounce to 109.5 lacked a proportional volume expansion versus the crash — suggests short-covering and tactical buying, not strong new accumulation.
• Implication: Rally vulnerable into resistance.

11. Pattern work

• Micro inverse H&S on the 1H (106.2–106.9 base, neckline ~108.5) already broke out and met its measured move near 110.0 (depending on how one anchors the neckline). That fulfillment plus fib 23.6% and R3 extension increases the risk of pattern exhaustion.
• Bear flag/descending channel on daily: The rise from 106 → 109.5 appears as a counter-trend channel retest into resistance bands; probability skew favors a continuation lower unless bulls invalidate by reclaiming 110.7 then 112.2.

12. Regression channel and mean reversion

• A regression fit from the 10/10 breakdown through 10/19 places price toward the upper half of the descending channel now. Statistically, pullbacks toward the channel mean (circa 107.5–108) are common when momentum stalls.

13. ADX/Trend strength (daily)

• ADX likely elevated post-crash with -DI above +DI. While the most acute downside impulse cooled, the trend component remains bearish.
• Implication: Trend-followers sell rallies into resistance while oscillators reset.

14. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Rejection in the 109.4–110.2 zone leads to a drift lower toward 107.8 first, with an extension to 106.7 if sellers press into U.S. session liquidity. Range expectation 106.7–109.8.
• Bullish alternative (30%): A decisive break and hold above 110.2/110.7 flips intraday momentum and opens 112.2 (38.2% fib). Sustained acceptance above 112.2 would target 114.9 (50% fib), but that’s lower probability within 24h given resistance layering.
• Bearish extension (15%): A sharp risk-off move slices 106.2 and brings 105.0 then 103.6 into play; requires fresh catalyst or stop-run.

15. Trade plan synthesis and risk management

• Bias: Sell-the-rip within a daily downtrend as price stalls exactly at the 23.6% fib (108,934) and ran an R3 extension intraday.
• Entry logic (short): Use a limit sell into the 109.8–110.2 liquidity pocket where multiple resistances converge (fib 23.6% area rejection, prior intraday high 109.46, psychological 110k, daily supply below 110.7). This provides better risk-reward than selling into 108.9 support bands.
• Profit target: First realistic magnet is 107.8–108.1 (1H mid-band/volume node), with a stretch target 106.7 (confluent demand and prior pivot support). For maximizing profit over the next 24h while keeping fill probability, target 106,700.
• Invalidation/stop (not part of output fields, but crucial): A protective stop above 111,300 (above 110.7 and intraday extension buffer) maintains a favorable R:R of roughly 1:1.5–1:2 depending on entry.
• Position sizing: Risk small per trade (e.g., 0.5–1.0% of equity) given elevated ATR.

Conclusion and 24h price path expectation

• Most likely path: A probe into 109.8–110.2 attracts supply and fades toward 107.8, with potential extension to 106.7 if momentum persists. Only a strong reclaim/hold above 110.7 invalidates the short and shifts targets to 112.2.
• Decision: Sell (Short Position).