BTC poised for a tactical rebound: buying the 110.8k dip for a push into 112.9–113.8k

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish (buy-the-dip setup) while below medium-term MAs; expecting a grind higher toward 112.2–113.8k with pullbacks to 110.7–110.9k likely being bought.
• Thesis drivers: Short-term uptrend on 1H with higher lows, reclaim of intraday VWAP, break above 110.3–110.5k micro supply, Fib confluence around 110.8–111.3k, and improving momentum after the Oct 10–17 capitulation. Medium-term headwinds remain (price below 20D SMA ~116.1k), so targets kept conservative for a 24h window.

Step-by-step multi-technique analysis

1. Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Daily structure (last ~3 months): • Jul 23–Aug 21: Range-to-downshift from ~120k into low 112–114k, then chop.
  • Late Aug -> Sep: Wide range 109–118k with several mean-reversion swings.
  • Early Oct: Sharp breakout to 125–126k highs (Oct 5–6), then a violent liquidation/downtrend to a capitulation zone 104–108k (Oct 10–17).
  • Since Oct 17 close at 106.47k, price put in a higher low on Oct 18 and a higher high/close sequence into Oct 19–20, now 111.06k.

• Takeaway: The medium-term is a downtrend from early-Oct highs, but the short-term (since Oct 17) is a recovery sequence with higher lows (106.5 -> 107.2 -> 108.7 -> now holding 110.7–111.0 intraday). This supports tactical longs for mean-reversion bounces.

• Hourly structure (10/20 session): • Asia open around 108.0–108.8k pushed steadily to 111.3–111.4k by early EU/US hours.
  • Dips to 110.30–110.75k were bought; late session printed 111.18–111.35k highs with multiple retests of 111.0–111.2k.
  • Micro HLs: 107.57 -> 108.12 -> 108.81 -> 110.21 -> 110.48 -> 111.01 -> 111.35 (sequence indicates buyers defending. The only notable shakeout was 17:00 hour to 109.97k; it was reclaimed quickly.)

2. Moving averages (guidance, not gospel)

• 20D simple moving average (approx): ~116,087. Price 111,061 is below the 20D SMA; medium-term momentum remains negative; rallies face supply into 114.9–118.6k.
• 50D proxy: Given late-Aug to early-Oct distribution around 110–120k and a recent spike to 126k, the 50D is likely in the 114–117k belt. Price below it maintains a “rally-to-sell” medium-term tone.
• Intraday MAs (1H 20/50 EMA style behavior): Price reclaimed and rides above fast intraday MAs today, consistent with a short-term bullish bias.
• Implication: Medium-term MAs argue for tempered upside; short-term MA posture favors a tactical long with nearby support.

3. Momentum indicators

• RSI (qualitative estimate): Daily RSI likely in mid-to-high 40s after a strong selloff and recent bounce; on 1H, RSI is constructive (series of HLs and small pullbacks). This supports continuation toward first resistance (112–113k) before potential cooling.
• MACD (qualitative): Daily MACD likely below zero, histogram improving from deep negative toward less negative/flat — a classic early recovery signature. On 1H, MACD likely crossed up earlier in the session and is flattening into minor consolidation, suggesting pullbacks should find dip-buyers near VWAP/Kijun zones.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR (14D, qualitative): Recent daily ranges expanded dramatically (Oct 10 range >17k), then contracted, but remain elevated (typical 1.5–3.0% daily swings). For the next 24h, a 1–2.5% move (1.1k–2.7k) is reasonable.
• Implication: Upside to 112.8–113.8k is achievable in one session without needing regime change; however, a full mean reversion to the 20D SMA (~116.1k) is unlikely within 24h without news.

5. Bollinger Bands (20D)

• With 20D midline ~116.1k and recent high vol, lower band likely resided near ~107k and upper band well above ~125k. Current price is below the midline and likely in the lower half of the band.
• Implication: Room for a mean-reversion crawl higher toward the midline over multiple days. In 24h, expect price to move toward the 38.2–50% retracement resistances, not necessarily the 20D midline.

6. Fibonacci confluences

• Major swing: Oct 6 high 126,198 to Oct 17 intraday low 103,598 (range 22,600):
  • 23.6%: 108,931 (reclaimed).
  • 38.2%: 112,231 (first major resistance ahead).
  • 50%: 114,898 (secondary resistance; stretch target beyond 24h).
  • 61.8%: 117,585 (unlikely in 24h barring catalyst).
• Minor swing: Oct 12–13 highs ~115.17–116.02 to Oct 17 low 106.47 (range ~9.55k):
  • 50% around ~111.25k — matches current pivot zone.
  • 61.8% around ~112.37k — aligns with the major 38.2% (112.23k) forming a strong resistance cluster 112.2–112.4k.
• Implication: 110.7–111.3k is a buy-the-dip area; 112.2–112.4k is first resistance. A clean 1H close above 112.4k opens 113.5–114.0k; failing there, expect mean reversion back to 111.0–111.2k.

7. Support/resistance mapping (from daily and intraday prints)

• Immediate supports:
  • 111.0–111.2k (intraday pivot, multiple closes).
  • 110.7–110.9k (pullback buy zone; confluence with intraday VWAP range and prior micro base).
  • 110.3–110.5k (NY session reclaim; below it, momentum sours).
  • 109.97k (today’s shakeout low; loss likely accelerates to 109.2–108.9k).
  • 108.9k (23.6% Fib) then 108.2–108.6k (late Aug/early Sep cluster).
• Overhead resistances:
  • 111.6k (intraday supply cap).
  • 112.2–112.4k (Fib confluence, daily pivot).
  • 112.9–113.5k (prior daily congestion and psychological).
  • 114.0–114.9k (big resistance band: daily closes and 50% major Fib).
• Implication: First upside path is toward 112.2–112.4k; a break and hold extends to 112.9–113.8k. If rejected, price likely oscillates 110.7–112.2k range.

8. Ichimoku (conceptual read)

• 1H Tenkan (fast baseline of last 9 periods) likely tracks ~110.9–111.0k; Kijun (26 periods) likely ~110.5–110.7k. Price sits marginally above Tenkan; cloud likely flipped bullish earlier in the session.
• Implication: As long as price holds above Kijun (~110.6), short-term trend intact. A dip to Kijun is a common buy location in trend continuation.

9. VWAP and anchored VWAP (qualitative)

• Session VWAP (10/20) approximates ~110.9–111.0k with price oscillating just above. Reclaims and holds above VWAP often precede late-session squeezes into nearby resistances (112.0–112.4k).
• Implication: Remaining north of session VWAP favors a grind up; losing VWAP with momentum would open a revisit of 110.5 and 109.97k.

10. Candlestick and pattern observations

• Daily bars post-Oct 17: Small-bodied green candles with higher lows suggest constructive repair after capitulation — classic “aftershock” phase.
• 1H: Bullish structure with occasional long lower wicks (demand absorption), especially the 17:00 hour wick to 109.97k, reclaimed swiftly.
• Pattern: Short-term ascending channel since Oct 18. Until channel support (~110.6–110.8k) breaks, path of least resistance is modestly up.

11. Wyckoff lens

• The Oct 10–17 action resembles a selling climax (SC) and automatic rally (AR) sequence followed by secondary tests (ST). The move from 106.5 to 111+ can be read as an early Sign of Strength (SOS) in Phase B.
• Implication: Expect backing-up action to the creek (BU) near 110.7–111.0k and then attempts to push into 112.2–113.5k. Failure of 110.3 resets to 108.9 (and would question SOS validity in the very near term).

12. Elliott wave (light-touch)

• Post-capitulation, an impulsive 5-wave micro structure could be forming on 1H: wave 1 up (106.5->109.5), wave 2 pullback (to ~108), wave 3 extension (to ~111.35), wave 4 flat (to ~110.3), now wave 5 toward 112.2–112.9.
• Implication: After testing 112.2–112.9, anticipate a modest ABC pullback toward 111.0–111.3 before trend decision.

13. Volume/participation

• Oct 10–12 had extreme volumes; subsequent sessions show normalization but with steady participation on advances. Today’s intraday shows healthy prints on pushes to 111.3+.
• Implication: No sign of exhaustion yet at current levels; however, major supply sits above 112.2–113.5k per historical turns.

14. Scenario planning (24h)

• Base case (55–60%): Gradual push to 112.2–112.4k, brief consolidation, then extension attempt into 112.9–113.8k. Close near upper third of day’s range if bulls hold VWAP.
• Bearish alt (25–30%): Fail at 111.6–112.0k, lose VWAP, slide to 110.3–110.5k; if 110.3 breaks, tag 109.97 then 108.9 (23.6% Fib) before buyers step in.
• Bullish tail (10–15%): Fast reclaim through 112.4k with momentum; squeeze into 114.0–114.9k (less likely without catalyst given medium-term MA resistance).

15. Risk management and trade location

• Optimal long location: 110.7–110.9k (prior resistance turned support, VWAP/Kijun confluence, and micro demand).
• First profit zone: 112.2–112.4k (Fib cluster); scale or trail if momentum strong.
• Secondary zone: 112.9–113.8k (daily congestion).
• Invalidations: Strong 1H close below 110.3 raises risk of a deeper retest to 109.0–109.2k; below 108.9 reopens 108.2–108.6k and undermines the long setup for this 24h horizon.

16. Synthesis

• Confluences supporting a long:
  • Short-term trend up with HLs;
  • Above session VWAP;
  • Fib 50% (minor) and 38.2% (major) map cleanly to nearby resistance, offering clear target;
  • Multiple layered supports just below current price for defined risk.
• Headwinds:
  • Below 20D/50D;
  • Significant overhead supply 112.2–114.9k.
• Net: Favor a tactical long on a controlled dip to ~110.85k targeting 112.9–113.8k within 24h. Keep expectations modest; this is a counter-trend rally within a still-repairing medium-term structure.

Trade idea and 24h path

• Direction: Buy the dip (Long).
• Entry: 110,850 (limit), inside the 110.7–110.9k demand pocket.
• Target (24h): 113,800, inside the 112.9–114.0k resistance band; aligns with a 1.7–2.6% session advance from entry — reasonable under current ATR.
• Notes: If momentum is strong through 112.4k, trail toward 113.5–113.8k; if momentum stalls at 112.2–112.4k, partial take-profits prudent. If 110.3 fails cleanly, the setup is likely wrong in this time frame.

Bottom line prediction (next 24 hours)

• Probable drift higher with intraday dips bought. Expect tests of 112.2–112.4k; if cleared, look for 112.9–113.8k into the close of the window. Downside guardrails: 110.3 then 109.97, with 108.9 as a worst-case probe if risk-off returns suddenly.