BTC: Dip-Buy Into 114k — Bullish Continuation Setup Over the Next 24 Hours

Executive Summary

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish with buy-the-dip setup. Expect range 109.2k–114.5k, base case push toward 113.5k–114.4k after a shallow pullback.
• Trade plan: Buy the dip near 110.2k–110.8k support; take profit into 113.5k–114.0k resistance. Risk dominated by failure to hold 110k and re-tests of 109.2k/108.6k.

Context and Structure (Daily and Hourly)

• Big picture (Daily): After the Oct-10 volatility shock (121.7k open → 104.6k intraday low → 113.2k close on massive volume), BTC printed a capitulation day, then stair-stepped lower into Oct-17 (103.6k low) and has since formed a sequence of higher lows and higher highs through Oct-21 (current 111.06k). Momentum is repairing, but price remains below the 114–116k daily supply band.
• Market structure
  • Daily: Higher low sequence: 103.6k (Oct-17) → 106.4k–107.2k (Oct-18/19) → 108.7k–110.6k (Oct-20/21). Higher highs vs prior day: 109.49k → 111.71k → 113.81k. Bullish structure recovery.
  • Hourly (Oct-21 session): Liquidity sweep down to 107.58k during Asia, impulsive rally to 113.54k into US morning, then orderly pullback to 111.1k into the close—classic impulsive leg + corrective retrace. Pullback held above prior breakout shelf (111.7–112.1k initially broke, then drifted below—now eyeing 110.8–111.1k demand).

Key Levels (from the provided data)

• Supports
  • 110.2k–110.8k: Intraday demand cluster (H1 lows 110.77k, 20:00 hour), prior resistance flip zone.
  • 109.7k–110.0k: 38.2% Fib of 103.6k → 113.54k leg (calc ≈ 109.74k); frequent hourly reactions here in early session.
  • 108.6k–108.8k: Multi-session pivot (Aug-30 close 108.81k, Sep-1 low 107.27k, Oct-18/19 basing). Strong buyer interest historically.
  • 107.5k–107.9k: Today’s Asia low and the right-shoulder shelf of a potential inverted H&S.
• Resistances
  • 113.3k–113.6k: Today’s intraday high and sell program zone (H1 113.536k).
  • 114.0k–114.4k: Late-Sep daily supply (Sep-29 close 114.40k; BB mid/20SMA vicinity). First major daily test above.
  • 115.5k–116.1k: Multi-day supply (Sep-11 to Sep-15 closes 115.4k–116.1k) and where momentum previously stalled.

Technical Toolkit Synthesis

1. Trend and Moving Averages (conceptual, derived from series)

• Daily slope: Price has reclaimed above short-term momentum proxies (e.g., 8–10 day average), likely still below the 20-day (approx mid 114s given recent closes) and below the 50-day (~115–116k zone). That puts BTC in a near-term uptrend inside a broader mean-reversion path toward 114–116k.
• Hourly: Short MAs (e.g., 8/21 EMA) crossed up during the impulsive leg to 113.5k; current pullback is testing the 21–34 EMA zone, typical for continuation if buyers defend 110.5–111.0k.
• Implication: Expect mean reversion upward on the daily toward the 20SMA band (≈114k), provided intraday pullbacks find support above 110k.

2. RSI/Stochastics

• Daily RSI: Recovering from a post-shock trough, likely mid-40s to low-50s. Rising momentum without overbought—the sweet spot for continuation.
• H1 RSI: After tagging overbought on the 113.5k spike, RSI mean-reverted to neutral (≈45–55) while price holds higher-lows—bullish divergence risk skew is positive if price stabilizes above 110.5–111k.
• Implication: There’s room to push to 113.5–114.0k before daily overbought concerns return.

3. MACD

• Daily MACD: Histogram rising toward zero after deep negative—early bull phase typical after capitulation. Signal-line catch-up favors further upside drifts.
• Hourly MACD: Rolled over post-spike, but flattening into the NY close; a shallow negative histogram that curls up near the zero-line is a high-quality continuation setup.
• Implication: Momentum repair supports another test of intraday highs over the next 24h.

4. Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

• Daily: Bands expanded violently on Oct-10, bandwidth now compressing; price sits below or near the mid-band (~114k), implying the mid-band acts as first resistance target and magnet in mean reversion.
• Hourly: Price hit the upper band at 113.5k, reverted to the middle band; lower band rising, suggesting constructive pullback rather than trend failure.
• Implication: Expect magnetism toward the daily mid-band (~114k), but anticipate sellers on first touch.

5. Ichimoku (heuristics from provided prices)

• Tenkan (9) ≈ midpoint of last 9 days: with high ≈116.0k and low ≈103.6k, Tenkan ≈ 109.8k. Price (111.1k) is above Tenkan—bullish short-term bias.
• Kijun (26) midpoint likely ≈114.5k–115k; price below Kijun—indicates mean-reversion target above but not a completed trend reversal.
• Implication: Above-Tenkan / below-Kijun = bullish grind toward Kijun if pullbacks hold.

6. Fibonacci Mapping

• Swing: 103.6k (Oct-17 low) → 113.536k (Oct-21 high). Key retraces:
  • 38.2%: ≈109.74k (already tested/defended).
  • 50%: ≈108.57k (secondary demand).
  • 61.8%: ≈107.41k (confluent with today’s Asia low ~107.58k).
• Implication: First-entry zone 110.2k–110.8k (above 38.2%), with contingency add near 108.6k if deeper flush occurs. Upside extensions point to 114.3k–115.1k on break of 113.5k.

7. Volume/OBV and Participation

• Oct-10 shock showed capitulation-scale volume; subsequent rally days show constructive, but declining, volume—a normal pattern for a basing phase.
• Intraday on Oct-21: Large participation on the impulse to 113.5k (8.22B in 15:00 hour), followed by lighter-volume pullback—bullish volume signature (impulse on high vol, correction on lower vol).
• Implication: Buyers in control on thrusts; corrections likely to be bought near support.

8. Market Profile / Supply-Demand Zones

• Demand: 110.2–110.8k (intraday shelf), 108.6–108.8k (composite pivot), 107.6–107.9k (liquidity pool).
• Supply: 113.3–113.6k (intraday sellers), 114.0–114.4k (daily mid-band + prior range top), 115.5–116.1k (upper supply).
• Implication: Expect responsive selling into 113.5–114.4k on first test; plan exits there.

9. ATR and Positioning

• Daily ATR (recent): ~4.5k–6k. Current price 111.1k implies a feasible 24h upside probe to 114k and downside probe to 109k within one ATR.
• Implication: R:R favorable for a dip-buy where risk can be defined under 109.3k with a 2.5–3.3k upside to 113.5–114k.

10. Candlestick/Pattern Read

• Daily for Oct-21 (so far): Small-bodied candle with a long lower wick (107.6k low) and modest upper wick—demand on dips.
• Intraday: Impulsive breakout (BOS) above prior day’s high (111.71k) to 113.54k, then a three-leg pullback (ABC) into 111.0–111.2k—typical bull flag retest behavior.
• Potential inverted H&S: Left shoulder ~108.1–108.6k, head 103.6k, right shoulder ~107.6k–108.6k; neckline 111.7–112.1k. We broke above neckline and are retesting from above—textbook continuation if 110.8–111.0k holds.

11. VWAP/Awareness

• Session anchored VWAP (Oct-21) likely in the 111.8–112.2k region given heavy volumes on the 14:00–16:00 thrust; late-day trade slightly below, which often offers a small discount into close.
• Implication: If price reclaims session VWAP early next session, momentum should carry toward 113.5k.

12. Scenario Analysis (24h)

• Scenario A – Bullish continuation (≈55%): Hold 110.5–111.0k, reclaim VWAP, drive into 113.3–113.6k; partial fills scale out into 113.9–114.4k.
• Scenario B – Range-bound (≈30%): Whipsaw 110.0k–112.5k, multiple VWAP tests; eventual NY-session push resolves higher but less extension.
• Scenario C – Bearish fade (≈15%): Lose 110k on impulse; test 109.7k then 108.6k; buyers reappear there. Only if 107.6k fails would the daily recovery be in jeopardy.

13. Risk Management Notes

• Invalidations: Clean H1 close below 109.7k weakens the immediate long. A daily close back under 109k negates the higher-low structure and opens 107.6k/106.5k.
• Optional (not in order schema): A prudent protective stop would sit 109.3k–109.4k if entering at ~110.6k–110.8k, targeting 113.9k+, which yields ~1:1.5–1:2 R:R depending on execution.

Bottom Line and Trade Plan

• Thesis: The market has transitioned from capitulation to repair, printing higher lows, with intraday pullback dynamics that favor a continuation push toward the daily mid-band at ~114k. The optimal tactic is to buy a controlled dip into 110.2–110.8k and realize gains into 113.5–114.0k on first test.
• Timing: Use a buy-limit near 110.65k to improve R:R. If price impulsively reclaims 112.4k with strong momentum before filling, an alternate breakout entry (not in schema) could target 114.0–114.4k.

24h Price Path Projection

• Expected range: 109.2k–114.5k
• Likely path: Early dip to 110.2–110.8k → reclaim 112.0–112.4k → test 113.3–113.6k → spike into 113.9–114.4k, then fade/consolidate.

Decision: Buy (Long) on dip near 110.65k; exit into 113.9k.