BTC poised for another leg lower: Sell the 108.3–108.9k bounce, target 105.2k

Timeframe and data used

• Instrument: BTC-USD
• Current price: $107,604.49 (as of 2025-10-22 20:57 UTC)
• Horizons analyzed: Daily (last ~90 days) and Hourly (last 24–36 hours)
• Data inputs: OHLCV daily series (Jul 25 – Oct 21) and hourly bars for Oct 21–22

1. Market structure and trend (top-down)

• Weekly/Daily swing context: A lower-high distribution zone formed between ~$122k–$126k (Oct 2–7), followed by a sharp markdown on Oct 10 (intraday low ~$104.6k) and a reactionary bounce that failed below the prior breakdown zone (Oct 12–20 highs capped ~$111–116k). Structure is lower highs (126.2k → 124.8k → 123.4k → 111.7k) and lower lows (113.2k → 110.8k → 106.5k), confirming a downtrend on daily.
• Hourly structure (past 24h): Sequence of lower highs: ~108.9k → 108.7k → 108.4k → 108.2k, and lower lows: ~107.99k → 107.70k → 106.97k. Price is tracking a descending intraday channel. Bearish micro-structure.
• Conclusion: Dominant trend is down; rallies are being sold. Bias: sell strength.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~115,405 (computed from last 20 closes). Price is ~6.8% below the 20D SMA. Bearish and indicates momentum to the downside; also sets the middle Bollinger band reference.
• 50-day SMA (approx): ~114k–116k (given Aug–Oct clustering around 112–120k). Price below 50D confirms medium-term bearish slope.
• 200-day SMA (approx): ~109k–111k (given months clustered 110–120k, plus recent drawdown). Current price is slightly below this long-term baseline, signaling potential trend inflection downside; loss of 200D often invites trend followers to sell rallies.
• EMAs (daily): 8/21 EMA bear cross occurred post Oct 10 drop and stayed negative; current price below both, preserving bear momentum.
• Hourly EMAs (20/50/200): Price trades below VWAP and below 50/200-EMA on most recent hours, indicating intraday supply dominance.
• Implication: Trend filters agree with a sell-the-rip plan; bounces into 108.2–109.3k likely face MA/VWAP headwinds.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (qualitative estimate): ~38–42 range after the Oct 10 shock and failed bounce; this is weak but not deeply oversold. It allows further downside room without mandatory mean-reversion.
• Hourly RSI(14): oscillating ~35–45; occasional micro-bullish divergences around 107.7k/107.6k vs 106.97k, but these have not converted into higher highs; they’re being faded at ~108.3–108.9k.
• Stochastics (hourly): cycling in lower band, recovering modestly on small bounces then failing near 108.4–108.7k.
• MACD (daily): Below zero with histogram negative since mid-Oct; momentum rollover intact. Hourly MACD attempts to cross up are feeble and quickly roll back over.
• Implication: Momentum remains bearish; any intraday upticks look corrective within a downtrend.

4. Volatility and range statistics

• Daily ATR(14) estimate: ~4.0–4.5k (recent sessions had 6.5k on Oct 21, ~2k today so far). Expect next 24h realized range ~2.5–4.5k.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Mid-band ~115.4k; estimated 20D sigma ~3.8–4.1k → lower band ~111.6k–107.2k. Price is hugging/“walking” the lower band near ~107–108k, a classic bearish continuation behavior until a firm reversal signal prints.
• Hourly Bollinger: Bands compressed around ~108.2k with frequent taps on lower band; minor expansions resolve downside more often than up in current regime.
• Implication: A further band walk lower is probable; bounces to mid-band (hourly) should cap near 108.5–108.9k.

5. Support, resistance, and liquidity map

• Resistance zones: 108.9k (23.6% retrace of 126.2k→103.6k leg), 109.1k–109.7k (hourly supply and prior breakdown shelf), 111.6–112.3k (38.2% retrace and prior congestion), 114.9k (50% retrace).
• Supports: 107.5–107.0k (intraday floors), 106.2–106.0k (hourly S1 cluster), 104.6k (Oct 10 crash low), 103.6k (Oct 17 swing low).
• Liquidity: Clear resting liquidity likely below 107.0k, 106.2k, and major pools near 105k and 104.6k. Overhead liquidity concentrated around 108.9k–109.5k and heavier above 111k.
• Implication: Market has incentive to sweep sub-107 liquidity; rallies into 108.3–108.9k face supply and offer optimal asymmetric short entries.

6. Fibonacci and confluence

• Swing measured: High 126,198 (Oct 6) to Low 103,598 (Oct 17). Retracement levels:
  • 23.6%: ~108,930 (precise confluence with current intraday resistance)
  • 38.2%: ~112,250
  • 50%: ~114,900
  • 61.8%: ~117,550
• Recent bounce failed below the 50%–61.8% zone, reinforcing the dominant down-leg. Price now oscillates under 23.6%, which is classically a weak retracement—often preludes continuation lower.
• Implication: 108.9k is a high-probability rejection zone for shorts with clear downstream targets 106.0k → 105.2k.

7. Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily: Price below Tenkan and Kijun; cloud above ~113–116k; bearish setup. Lagging span under price and cloud—no bullish signal.
• Hourly: Price below cloud, cloud sloping down; Kijun ~108.4–108.7k acts as dynamic resistance; repeated rejections near that band today.
• Implication: Cloud system favors shorting bounces into Kijun/Span A (~108.4–108.9k).

8. VWAP and volume analytics

• Intraday VWAP (today) approximates ~108.2–108.4k. Price has traded below VWAP for most of the session; bounces to VWAP have sold off.
• OBV/Volume character: Massive distribution volume on Oct 10 and elevated sell pressure on Oct 21; today’s bounce attempts occur on lighter volume, suggesting weak demand.
• Implication: Selling into VWAP/previous high-of-day tests is favored.

9. Candlestick/price action

• Daily: Oct 21 printed a large bearish candle with long body; Oct 22 shaping a small-bodied consolidation near lows—typical bear flag/day of rest before another leg down.
• Hourly: Multiple upper wicks near 108.6–108.9k and full-bodied down bars into 107.7–107.9k. The 11:00–13:00 UTC sequence showed failed push above 108.9k that reversed swiftly.
• Implication: Supply is active overhead; continuation lower is more probable than a sustained reversal.

10. Wyckoff/Elliott framing

• Wyckoff: Post-distribution markdown (Oct 10) → failed secondary test (Oct 12–20) → redistribution range 106–112k now breaking lower. Price likely seeks new markdown leg targeting prior swing low tests.
• Elliott (stylized): Impulse down from 126.2k to 103.6k as wave 3; corrective wave 4 topped sub-50% retrace; now in wave 5 targeting 104–105k region with potential undercut to ~103.5k.
• Implication: Wave-5 extensions often probe prior lows and sweep liquidity before basing.

11. Classical pivots (based on Oct 21 H/L/C: 113,996 / 107,535 / 108,477)

• Pivot P ≈ 110,003
• R1 ≈ 112,471; R2 ≈ 116,464
• S1 ≈ 106,010; S2 ≈ 103,542
• Price is currently between S1 and yesterday’s low; a drift to S1/S2 is consistent with the trend. A wick through S1 into 105.x is plausible in next 24h.

12. Risk framing and scenarios (next 24h)

• Base case (55%): Weak bounce into 108.3–108.8k fails; price rotates lower to 106.0–105.2k; intraday low may print 104.8–105.2k before basing.
• Bullish alternative (25%): Strong reclaim of 108.9k (23.6% fib) and intraday VWAP; squeeze to 109.7–110.6k possible. Would reassess shorts if 110.6k holds above 1–2 hours.
• Bearish extension (20%): Straight slide through 106.0k with momentum, tag 104.6k and probe 103.6k (S2 cluster). Quick flush, then reflexive bounce.

13. Trade thesis, entries, and targets

• Edge: Confluence of downtrend (multi-timeframe), price below VWAP/EMAs/Ichimoku cloud, resistance at 108.9k (23.6% fib), and liquidity below current lows. Bollinger lower-band walk adds continuation risk.
• Optimal entry: Sell rally into 108.3k–108.9k with strongest confluence near 108.3–108.5k (VWAP/Kijun/EMA) and 108.9k (Fib 23.6%).
• Target zone: 105.2k primary (pre-liquidity pocket above 104.6k), with extension potential to 104.6k if momentum expands.
• Protective context (not part of output fields but prudent): Risk invalidation on sustained reclaim/hold above 109.7–110.0k (back above hourly supply and pivot P).

14. Summary and 24h price path expectation

• Expect initial attempts to auction up toward 108.3–108.8k to meet supply; failure there likely resolves into a push below 107.0k toward 106.0–105.2k. A spike low near 104.8–105.2k within 24h is probable before any durable bounce attempts.

Decision: Sell strength; open short via limit near 108,300; target close 105,200.