BTC stalls below 111k: Fade the rip into 111.2k—target the 108.6–109.3k pocket

Market state at a glance

• Instrument: Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
• Current price: 109,877.84
• Session context (1h): Strong London/US push to 111,28k followed by mean reversion to just under 110k; range developing 109.3k–111.3k.
• Daily context: Post-crash basing after the 10-10 capitulation; still below key moving averages and under a descending trendline with supply stacked 110.6k–112.3k.
• Bias next 24h: Slightly bearish-to-neutral; favor fading strength into 110.9k–111.3k back toward 108.6k–109.2k unless 112.2k reclaims on strong momentum/volume.

Price action and key levels

• Major swing range: 10-06 high 126,198 → 10-17 low 103,598 (range ≈ 22.6k). The recovery has only reclaimed the 23.6% retracement so far and failed at the 38.2% cluster near 112.2k—typical of a weak bounce within a broader corrective phase.
• Post-capitulation structure: 10-17 set a low at 103.6k; 10-20 high 111.7k; 10-22 higher low 107.69k; today printed 111.28k (a lower high vs 10-20). That preserves a short-term lower-high sequence beneath multi-day resistance.
• Intraday (1h) microstructure: Higher low from 07:00 (≈109.3k) and a push to 111.28k at 18:00, then sellers defended, pushing price back to 109.9k. The 109.3k–109.5k pocket is now first support; resistance layers at 110.6k, 111.25k, and 112.2–112.4k.

Support and resistance map

• Resistance: 110.6k (intraday pivot), 111.25–111.30k (today’s high supply), 112.2–112.4k (daily fib/structure confluence), 113.2–113.9k (late-September/early-October congestion), 114.9k (50% retrace of 126.2k→103.6k).
• Support: 109.9k (round-number pivot), 109.3k (session swing base), 108.6k (38.2% of 103.6k→111.7k and prior reaction lows), 107.65k (50% of 103.6k→111.7k), 106.7k (61.8% of that leg), 106.47k (10-17 close), 103.6–104.6k (capitulation wick).

Fibonacci confluence

• Large swing 126,198 → 103,598:
  • 23.6%: ≈108,932 (currently held/reclaimed)
  • 38.2%: ≈112,231 (where rallies have been stalling)
  • 50%: ≈114,898
  • 61.8%: ≈117,565
• Smaller swing 103,598 → 111,711:
  • 38.2%: ≈108,611
  • 50%: ≈107,655
  • 61.8%: ≈106,695 Interpretation: Price sits between a reclaimed 23.6% (≈108.9k) and a contested 38.2% (≈112.2k). Until 112.2k is accepted on strong breadth, the path of least resistance remains sideways-to-lower inside this fib pocket.

Trend and moving averages

• Daily trend: Corrective/down from 10-06; lower highs remain intact. A provisional 20-day SMA (approx) sits near the mid-114k region, above spot—indicating price is still below mean and rallies risk mean-reversion failure.
• Medium-term (50-day) trend: Also likely above price given the mid/late-September levels near 112–116k; the slope has flattened to down after the 10-10 shock.
• 1h EMAs: Sloped up intraday after the London push, but price has mean-reverted back toward the intraday baseline—suggesting a range day rather than a trend day. Interpretation: With daily MAs overhead and intraday MAs flattening, rallies into 110.6–111.3k are likely to attract supply unless volume expands materially.

Momentum indicators

• Daily RSI (qualitative): Post-10-10 capitulation RSI recovered from oversold but remains sub-50 to low-50s, consistent with a bear rally rather than a new uptrend.
• 1h RSI: Printed a high alongside the 18:00 price high; post-high retrace brought RSI back toward midline, i.e., momentum waning on the upswing. Mild bearish divergence risk if another marginal high prints with a lower RSI peak.
• MACD: Daily MACD remains below zero with a tentative histogram improvement; 1h MACD crossed up earlier in the session and is flattening—typical of range development after an impulsive move. Interpretation: Momentum backdrop favors mean reversion shorts into resistance rather than breakout longs until daily RSI can clear and hold above the midline and MACD crosses decisively.

Volatility and ATR

• Daily ATR (rough estimate from the last two weeks) elevated after 10-10; typical daily swings recently ~4–6k.
• 1h ATR compressed post 18:00 high; typical hourly bars running 300–800 points, expanding on approach to 111k or 109k. Interpretation: Expect a 24h range envelope approximately 108.6k–111.8k barring a new catalyst.

Bollinger Bands

• Daily: Bands expanded on 10-10; now gradually contracting. Price is below the 20-day basis and oscillating between the basis and lower band—mean reversion favors fading rallies under the basis.
• 1h: Price tagged/briefly rode the upper band into 111.28k and snapped back toward the mid-band; classic upper-band rejection.

Ichimoku (directional read)

• Daily: Likely below baseline with a thickening overhead cloud from the crash impulse—resistance aligns with 112–114k.
• 1h: Price oscillates around the cloud with the conversion line flattening; a thin intraday cloud above 111k suggests overhang and potential rejection on retests.

Volume and participation

• 10-10/10-11 delivered capitulation-level volume. Subsequent rallies to 111–112k lacked comparable participation and were faded.
• Today’s thrust to 111.28k saw follow-through fade quickly; later hours showed supply stepping in near 110.6–111.3k. Interpretation: Without a volume expansion through 112.2k, upside breakouts risk failing.

Market profile / VWAP (intraday)

• Intraday VWAP anchored to today’s session sits around the 109.8–110.0k zone. Price is hovering near VWAP after a failed extension—typical of balanced sessions that favor fades at range extremes.
• POC/High-volume node: 109.9–110.1k; value built here suggests magnet behavior.

Pattern and structure

• Broad: Post-crash bear-flag-like consolidation between 106.5k and 112.5k. Until a daily close reclaims 112.2–112.5k, base-building remains unconfirmed.
• Intraday: Rising wedge/ascending channel from the Asia/London session broke down into NY afternoon; that break supports a fade-the-bounce setup.

Scenario planning (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Range-to-down. Retest 110.6–111.3k gets sold; rotation to 109.0–109.3k with spikes toward 108.6k. Close likely 108.9–110.1k.
• Alt bullish (25%): Quick reclaim of 111.3k, sustained bid, and volume expansion punch through 112.2k; acceptance above turns 112.2k into support and opens 113.2–113.9k.
• Alt bearish (20%): Early loss of 109.3k triggers sweep of 108.6k; momentum accelerates to 107.7k/107.0k before buyers stabilize.

Trade plan (tactical short – fade the bounce)

• Rationale: Daily trend still corrective with overhead MAs; price rejected upper 1h Bollinger and backed off from a prior supply zone; fib and structure confluence at 111.2–112.2k; intraday VWAP reversion implies selling rips.
• Entry: Sell limit 110,900 (inside the 110.6–111.3k supply pocket; likely achievable on a routine liquidity probe).
• Take profit (primary): 108,650 (confluence of 38.2% retrace of 103.6k→111.7k and intraday support shelf).
• Invalidation/stop (for risk management, not part of order output): 112,350 (above the 112.2k confluence and late-September supply). Risk ≈ 1,450; Reward ≈ 2,250; R:R ≈ 1:1.55.
• Optional partials: Consider scaling 25–33% at 109,300 (session base) and leave remainder to 108,650. Trail stop to breakeven on the first scale.
• If missed: If price breaks down first (under 109.3k), look to sell a VWAP/EMA retest near 110.0–110.2k with the same invalidation and a slightly tighter target (108.9k).

What flips the bias

• Bullish flip requires a 1h close above 111.3k followed by acceptance above 112.2k with expanding volume/breadth. That would target 113.2–113.9k and possibly 114.9k (50% of 126.2k→103.6k). Until then, rallies are suspect.

24-hour forecast

• Path expectation: Early probe higher into 110.6–111.2k, rejection, drift back to 109.3k, and a late-session sweep toward 108.6–109.0k, barring a macro catalyst.

Summary

• The broader tape remains a post-shock retracement under key daily moving averages and a heavy 112.2k fib/structure cap. Intraday momentum has already faded after tagging 111.28k. Mean-reversion shorting into 110.9–111.2k with targets in the 108.6–109.3k zone aligns with the prevailing confluence and offers a favorable tactical setup for the next 24 hours.