BTC poised for an ascending-triangle breakout: targeting 112.7–113.9k within 24 hours

Overview and timeframes considered

• Instruments/timeframes: BTC-USD Daily (last 90 days), Daily last 30 days focus, Hourly intraday for 2025-10-23 to 2025-10-24.
• Current price: 110,989.28. Today’s intraday range clustered between 110,012 and 111,602 with a late-session push to 110,989.
• Regime context: After an early-October peak near 126k, BTC suffered a sharp liquidation on 10-10 (low vol turn into high vol breakdown) and bottomed in the 106–107k zone around 10-17/10-18. Since 10-22, price has carved higher lows and is attempting a basing process just below a 111.5–112.0k resistance shelf.

1. Market structure and price action

• Daily swing structure: Lower highs since 10-06 (~126k) into 10-17 (~103.6k intraday low), followed by a reflexive rebound. Notably, 10-18 to 10-24 shows higher lows: 106.39 → 106.78 → 107.55 → 109.94 area (today). This is early-stage basing—bullish on a tactical horizon.
• Key horizontal levels (spot): • Support: 110,000 (round/psych), 109,680 (9-27 close), 109,050 (9-25 close), 108,410 (8-29 close), deeper: 107,200/106,470 (10-18/10-17 cluster). • Resistance: 111,500–111,750 (today’s intraday cap + classic R1), 112,100–112,500 (9-28/8-28 closes), 113,200 (10-10 close), 114,400 (9-29 close), 115,200–115,500 (10-12/10-11 supply).
• Intraday structure (hourly 10-24): Series of higher lows: ~110,013 → ~110,258 → ~110,195 → ~110,581; persistent supply near 111,2–111,6. This reads as an ascending triangle under 111.5–111.7k—constructive pattern that often resolves higher if buyers sustain.
• Candlestick context: Last two completed daily candles are green with higher lows; today’s intraday prints show small-bodied consolidations and demand re-appearing on dips, consistent with accumulation rather than distribution.

2. Trend and moving averages

• 8–10 day momentum: Price reclaimed the short-term momentum baseline. Approx 8–10 day EMA/MA cluster is near 109.5–110.0k; spot is above—short-term trend has turned up.
• 20-day SMA (approx): ~113.6k from recent closes; price is below the 20-DMA, implying the broader short-term trend remains neutral/negative, with room for mean reversion up toward the mid-band.
• 50-day SMA (approx): Likely 114–116k region given September–October distribution. Spot below it, signaling the intermediate trend is still sideways to down.
• Takeaway: Short-term (days) momentum bullish; intermediate (weeks) trend mixed. A push into 112.7–114.4 would test the lower edge of the broader supply zone and the 20–50 day moving average band.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI (est.): mid-40s to high-40s and rising from oversold after the 10-17 washout; not overbought, room to run toward 55–60 if breakout.
• Hourly RSI: Firmly mid-50s to low-60s during the session, confirming a constructive intraday bias with shallow pullbacks.
• MACD: Daily histogram has been contracting toward zero, indicating waning bearish momentum; hourly MACD is positive and above signal—bulls control intraday tape.
• Stochastics: Intraday stoch stays buoyant with resets on dips—characteristic of grind-up regimes.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR (daily, est.): ~3.0–3.8k. A 24h expected move of about ±2.5–3.5k is reasonable. From 110.99k, that brackets ~108.0–114.5k.
• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2): Mid-band ~20-DMA at ~113.6k; lower band likely near 107–108k; upper band ~119–120k. Price sits below mid-band, implying a mean-reversion pathway toward 113–114k if buyers push.
• Bollinger/Keltner squeeze (hourly): Bands have tightened as price compresses under resistance; a volatility expansion is likely on a break of 111.5–111.7k.

5. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing low 10-17 (~103.6k) → swing recovery to 10-12/10-11 supply (~115.2k region) provides a useful ladder: • 38.2% from low: ~108.0k (reclaimed). • 50%: ~109.4k (reclaimed/pivoted). • 61.8%: ~110.9k—exactly where price is sitting; a clean break and hold above favors a run to 78.6% near ~112.7k.
• A measured move from the intraday ascending triangle (~1.3–1.6k height) projects to ~112.8–113.3k on breakout—aligns with R2 and the 78.6% retracement.

6. Ichimoku lens (approximate)

• Tenkan (9-period mid): near low-110s; price around/above it intraday—supportive.
• Kijun (26-period mid): estimated high-112s; that’s overhead resistance matching the 112.7–113.3 cluster.
• Cloud: Price approaches the lower cloud boundary; a foray into cloud typically implies chop unless accompanied by momentum. A decisive close above ~112.5–113.0 would be a more robust bullish signal toward 114–115.

7. Pivots and market profile

• Classic daily pivots using 10-23 H/L/C (H 111,289; L 107,548; C 110,070): • Pivot P ≈ 109,636 • R1 ≈ 111,724 • R2 ≈ 113,377 • S1 ≈ 107,983 • S2 ≈ 105,895
• Current price is above the pivot and just below R1. Typical path-of-least-resistance is to test R1; a clean breach often begets a momentum push to R2 (especially with a concurrent triangle breakout). R2 (113.38k) aligns with the triangle target and Bollinger mid-band.
• Intraday value: The 10-24 session built value between ~110.2–111.3 with repeated acceptance in that zone; the point of control seems around 111.1k. Closing near the top of value is bullish into the next session.

8. Volume, breadth, and accumulation tells

• Volume spikes coincided with upswings (e.g., 04:00, 09:00, 12:00, 19:00, 20:00 UTC), suggesting dip-buys are being defended. No clear distribution tails near highs today; sellers stalled at prior supply without follow-through.
• OBV (qualitative): Rising since 10-22, consistent with accumulation.
• MFI (qualitative): Mid-range, leaving headroom for an impulsive push.

9. Pattern synthesis

• Daily: Emerging inverse head-and-shoulders feel around 10-17/10-22 lows with a neckline in the 110.5–110.8 area; 10-23 close above 110.07 effectively tested that neckline. Measured objective from 106.5 head to 110.6 neckline is ~4.1k; add to neckline implies ~114.7k potential in the coming sessions (not necessarily within 24h but informs upside skew).
• Hourly: Clear ascending triangle into 111.5–111.7k. A break and 30–60 minute hold above 111.7k should unlock 112.7–113.4k quickly given thin overhead liquidity pockets.

10. Risk matrix and scenarios (next 24h)

• Base case (prob ~60–65%): Break/hold above 111.7k triggers momentum to 112.7–113.4k, with stretch to 113.9–114.4k if flows stay positive. This matches ATR room and R1→R2 progression.
• Pullback case (prob ~25–30%): Another rejection at 111.5–111.7k leads to a controlled dip toward 110.6–110.2k (prior session value and intraday demand). Buyers likely defend above the daily pivot 109.64k; failure there opens 108.4k.
• Bear surprise (prob ~10–15%): Macro headline or weekend illiquidity flush drives a swift test of 109.0–108.4k. Structure remains intact above 107.9k (S1) for the broader basing thesis.

11. Confluences that favor a long bias now

• Short-term trend positive (above 8–10EMA), intraday higher lows, and an ascending triangle into overhead supply.
• Price sitting on/just through the 61.8% retracement from the 10-17 low—classic launching area when momentum is turning.
• Pivot map and triangle target both point to 112.7–113.4k, with the 20-DMA mid-band near 113.6k providing a magnet.
• Volume pattern supports accumulation; hourly momentum (RSI/MACD) is constructive and not overbought.

12. Trade plan construction

• Entry method: Breakout confirmation is favored over knife-catching given nearby resistance. A buy-stop just above R1/triangle cap reduces false breaks.
• Optimal open price: 111,800 (buy stop) to confirm acceptance above R1 and the flat-top of the triangle.
• Profit target (24h): 113,900, at the upper edge of the R2 zone and just beneath daily resistance at 114.4k, improving fill probability under weekend liquidity.
• Risk context (not required but informative): A logical invalidation sits below 110,200 (intraday demand); that yields a favorable R:R to the 113.9k objective.

13. Bottom line and 24h forecast

• Bias: Bullish-tactical. Expect a topside break toward 112.7–113.9k within 24h if 111.7k is taken and held. Downside should be contained by 110.2–109.6 barring a shock.
• Decision: Buy (Long position) via breakout trigger.
• Open Price: 111,800
• Close/Take-Profit: 113,900