BTC’s Weekend Squeeze: Fading 112k Resistance for a 24‑Hour Mean‑Reversion Shot

Executive summary

• Market state: BTC is in a post-selloff consolidation between roughly 108,000 and 114,000 after the sharp Oct 10 washout. The last 48 hours show tight, mean‑reverting price action around 111,300–111,900 with weekend-thin volumes. Bias for the next 24 hours: slight downside within the range unless 112,000 (R1/past intraday rejection) breaks decisively with volume.
• Trade idea (24h): Fade into resistance. Optimal short entry clustered near 111,900–112,000 with a take‑profit toward 110,900 where multiple supports converge (pivot zone and recent intraday demand). Invalidation on sustained acceptance above 112,400–112,950.

1. Market context and structure

• Higher timeframe (daily): After peaking Oct 6 near 126,200, BTC sold off to the Oct 17 low around 106,468. Since then, price has carved a series of higher lows (106,468 → 107,198 → 108,667 → 110,589 → 110,070 → 111,034 → 111,494 current), but it still makes lower highs versus early October (a developing symmetrical triangle/consolidation). Price is currently below the 38.2% retracement of the Oct downswing (~114,000), which continues to act as a ceiling.
• Intermediate range: Key resistance band 113,100–115,500 (prior closes and 38.2–50% retracement). Key supports 110,200–110,700 and major 108,400–108,800 (multi-touch floor from Aug 29 and Oct 16–17).
• Intraday (hourly): Tight range build with repeated rejections 111,780–111,934 and higher lows around 111,340–111,430. Liquidity has been swept above 111,780 without follow‑through, signaling supply near 111.9–112.0. Weekend volumes favor mean reversion over trend continuation.

2. Support/resistance map (confluence ranked)

• Resistance R3: 114,000–114,400 (daily supply, 38.2% Fib of 126.2k→106.47k, Sep 29 close).
• Resistance R2: 112,954 (classic pivot R2 from 10/24 calc). Secondary cap 113,100–113,500 (Oct 14 close, minor daily pivot cluster).
• Resistance R1: 111,900–112,000 (10/25 intraday high 111,934; daily pivot R1 ≈ 111,994). Local sellers repeatedly active.
• Support S1: 110,900–111,000 (intraday VWAP/accepted value area; just above 10/24 pivot P ≈ 110,882).
• Support S2: 109,920 (classic pivot S1). Deeper: 109,050–109,700 (Sep 25–27 cluster), and 108,400–108,800 (major floor).

3. Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily 20SMA (approx): ~113,000–113,500. Price at 111,494 sits below the 20SMA, signaling lingering bearish/neutral bias but close enough to allow a revert-to-mean magnet on bounces toward 113k.
• Daily 50SMA (approx): drifting near 114,000–115,000 from prior September prints; price below → intermediate trend still not reclaimed.
• Hourly EMAs (8/21/55): Flat-to-slightly upward slope in the last 24h, reflecting a short-term upward drift but with diminishing momentum into overhead resistance. This favors selling rips rather than buying breakouts on low weekend liquidity.
• Takeaway: Higher TF MAs overhead are resistance; LTF MAs flatten → range conditions.

4. Momentum

• RSI(14D): Neutral-bearish, estimated mid-40s to high-40s after the October drop and recent stabilization. No divergence to suggest strong trend start yet.
• RSI(14H): Tracks around 45–55; repeated failures to push above 60 during tests of 111.8–111.9 indicate weak impulsive buying near resistance.
• Stochastic (hourly): Cycling within range, recently turning down from overbought during the 111.9 test. Supports a tactical fade.
• MACD (daily): Histogram contracting toward zero (bearish momentum exhausts), but signal-line crossover not decisively bullish. MACD (hourly) flattened; minor bear cross risk on any slip under 111.4.
• Takeaway: Momentum is balanced to slightly soft; no evidence of a strong upside impulse unless 112k+ clears on volume.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14D): Elevated post‑Oct 10, now compressing; typical daily swing ~4,000–5,000. That range accommodates a 24h move from 111.5k toward 110.9k without requiring a regime shift.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Mid-band ~20SMA ~113k; price slightly below mid. Upper band ~119k, lower ~107k. Room exists both sides; however, price is gravitating below mid-band, keeping a modest bear tilt.
• Bollinger Bands (hourly): Noticeable squeeze formed across today’s session (~111.4–111.8). Squeezes tend to break with continuation in the direction of the prevailing microflow; repeated rejections at the upper band (111.78–111.93) favor a small downside expansion.

6. Volume, flow, and positioning proxies

• Daily volume: Spiked on the Oct 10 liquidation, then trended lower. Recent sessions show declining activity into the weekend. Lower volume near resistance is characteristic of distribution rather than absorption.
• Hourly volume: Modest upticks on pushes into 111.7–111.9, followed by quick fades; that suggests overhead supply. No evidence of strong demand stepping in above 111.8.
• OBV (qualitative): Flatlining after the bounce; no sustained accumulation signature visible yet.
• VWAP (intraday, qualitative): Price oscillated near/slightly above session VWAP; failure to hold gains above 111.8 implies a sell-the-rip environment.

7. Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily: Price likely below or at the Kijun baseline with cloud (Kumo) overhead near 113–115. That configuration typically caps rallies until Kijun/SSA-SSB are reclaimed.
• Hourly: Price near/above a flat Kumo earlier, but with weak Senkou Span slope and thin cloud ahead. In flat-cloud conditions, mean reversion dominates and wicks above resistance are often faded.

8. Fibonacci and classical pivots

• Down-leg measured from Oct 6 high (126,200) to Oct 17 low (106,468):
  • 38.2% ≈ 114,000 (working resistance since mid-Oct)
  • 50% ≈ 116,340
  • 61.8% ≈ 118,670 The market’s inability to sustain above 114k confirms the corrective nature of the bounce.
• Classic daily pivot levels (from 10/24 H/L/C = 111,842.53/109,770.15/111,033.92):
  • Pivot P ≈ 110,882
  • R1 ≈ 111,994; R2 ≈ 112,955
  • S1 ≈ 109,922; S2 ≈ 108,810 Price is oscillating around P and capping near R1, right where intraday highs printed. Confluence strengthens the sell zone at 111,900–112,000.

9. Pattern diagnostics

• Symmetrical triangle/range: Series of higher lows since Oct 17 but capped below 114k. Price is now near the triangle’s midline. Weekend typically reduces breakout probability; expect continued range with skew to the lower bound of the intraday value area.
• Candles (hourly): Multiple small-bodied candles with upper wicks around 111.7–111.9 reflect supply absorption.
• Liquidity sweeps: Today’s push to 111,934 likely collected stops above 111.8 then reverted, suggesting a supply pocket up to ~112.0.

10. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Range drift with minor downside. Price rotates from 111.8–112.0 offer zone back to 111.0–111.0x; tests toward 110.9 likely if liquidity picks up late session/Asia open.
• Bear extension (25%): If 111.3 gives way, slide toward pivot P (110,880) and probe S1 (109,920) possible, especially if global risk tone weakens. Would likely require a modest uptick in volume.
• Bull breakout (20%): Acceptance above 112,000 with hourly close > 112,200 and follow-through could target 112,950 (R2). Only if 113.1–113.5 clears with volume does 114,000 come into play. Probability lower over the weekend due to repeated failure to hold above 111.9.

11. Risk management and execution considerations

• Entry technique: Use a passive sell limit near 111,900–112,000 to align with pivot R1 and prior intraday rejection. Avoid chasing into lows; let price come to you.
• Invalidation (not a hard stop in fields, but recommended): Above 112,400–112,950 zone, where the next resistance cluster and R2 reside. A strong hourly close above 112.4 reduces edge of the fade.
• Take-profit logic: First target near 110,900 (above pivot P and just before the 110,700 intraday support band) to capture the likely mean‑reversion swing within 24h.
• Slippage/liquidity: Weekend books can be thin; prefer limits and patience. If unfilled by the close of the 24h window or if momentum flips, cancel and reassess.

12. Synthesis and conclusion

• Multi-tool alignment: MA structure overhead, RSI neutral to soft, MACD non-impulsive, Bollinger squeeze with repeated upper-band failures, pivot confluence at 112k, and visible intraday supply around 111.9–112.0 collectively favor selling strength rather than buying resistance in the next 24 hours.
• Therefore, the higher-probability tactical trade is a short near 112k aiming for a fade back to ~110.9k. Break and hold over 112.4 would neutralize the idea; over 112.95 shifts bias to 113.5–114.0.

24h price path expectation

• Likely range: 110,800 – 112,000.
• Skew: Mild downside toward 110,900 base case; low odds of a clean break above 112,000 without fresh participation.

Positioning

• Decision: Sell (Short Position)
• Open Price (optimal): 111,880 (sell limit near R1 and intraday rejection zone)
• Close Price (take profit): 110,900 (near pivot/VA support)