BTC Poised for a Post-Crash Push: Buy the Dip for a Run at 115k

Executive summary and 24h view

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish continuation with a dip-risk first. Expect an initial pullback toward 112.8–112.2k, then a push into 114.4–115.5k if 113.9k breaks cleanly. Base case close in the upper half of the 113–115k range.
• Trade stance (24h): Buy-the-dip preferred over chasing. Key trigger: reclaim/hold above 113.45–113.9k and convert 113.0–112.8k into support.

Step-by-step, multi-tool analysis

1. Market structure (Daily)

• Trend context: After the 10/10 capitulation (low ~104.6k, record volume), BTC put in a higher-low sequence: 10/17 close 106.47k → 10/18 107.20k → 10/19 108.67k → 10/20 110.59k; minor setback 10/21–22, then resumed higher into 10/23–10/26. This is a constructive post-capitulation grind higher typical of a volatility washout base.
• Current level: 113.43k is back above the daily 20-day mean and sitting near a dense prior pivot band (113–114.5k) where supply previously capped rallies (9/24 close 113.33k; 9/29 close 114.40k; 10/14 close 113.12k). Holding above 112.2–112.5k turns that band into a launching pad.

2. Market structure (Intraday H1)

• 10/26 session: Tight Asian-range around 111.6–111.8k → Europe lifted to 112.7k → US hours extended to 113.86k. Post-breakout consolidation formed a high-and-tight flag between ~113.45–113.9k. That is typically continuation if the prior leg was clean and volume-supported.
• Short-term supports: 113.0–112.8k (intraday breakout shelf) and 112.5–112.2k (daily 20DMA neighborhood and morning base). Loss of 112.2k raises risk of a deeper mean-reversion into 111.8/111.2k.

3. Moving averages (Daily; approximations from the series)

• 9-EMA ≈ 111.5–112.0k: Price above → short-term momentum supportive.
• 20-SMA ≈ 112.4k: Price back above → mid-band regained; often implies tests of the upper band in the following sessions when not rejected quickly.
• 50-SMA ≈ 113.5–114.5k: We are essentially testing it. A decisive acceptance above the 50-SMA would advertise 115.5–117k next.
• 200-SMA (contextual): Likely sub-105–108k given prior months. Price well above → primary trend intact despite October drawdown.

4. Momentum

• RSI (Daily, est.): Mid-50s, rising from sub-40 on 10/17. That is neutral-to-bullish with room before overbought. No immediate bearish divergence versus the 10/26 high.
• RSI (H1): Pushed into the 60–65 zone on the breakout, then cooled within a tight flag. That’s classic momentum reset without structure break.
• MACD (Daily, qualitative): Post-crash bear impulse waning; histogram turning positive; signal-line cross likely occurred around 10/23–10/24. Fresh positive cross aligns with early-phase up-leg probabilities.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14D) elevated (est. 3.8–5.5k) post 10/10 shock. With current compression on H1, a 24h impulse of ~+/-2.5–4.0k is plausible. That projects upside magnets near 115–116k if the break extends, or downside tests of 111–110k on failure.
• Bollinger Bands (Daily): Mid-band ≈ 112.4k, upper ≈ 116.4k, lower ≈ 108.4k (est.). Trading just above mid-band → statistical drift favors mean-to-upper-band travel if mid-band holds.

6. Support/Resistance map (confluence focus)

• Immediate resistance: 113.86k (today’s H1 high), 114.40k (9/29 close), 114.6k (50% retrace of 10/7→10/17 downswing), 115.5–116.0k (multi-day supply shelf and BB upper neighborhood).
• Immediate support: 113.0–112.8k (intraday shelf), 112.5–112.2k (20DMA zone), 111.8k (H1 38.2% pullback), 111.2k (H1 50% pullback). High-volume acceptance exists 111–112.5k.

7. Fibonacci analysis

• Swing A: 10/7 high ~126.2k to 10/17 low ~103.6k. Retracements: 38.2% ≈ 112.0k (already reclaimed), 50% ≈ 114.9k, 61.8% ≈ 117.0k. Price is between 38.2% and 50%; next magnet is 114.9k.
• Swing B: 10/21 low ~108.5k to 10/26 high 113.86k. Pullbacks: 38.2% ≈ 111.8k, 50% ≈ 111.2k, 61.8% ≈ 110.5k. This frames ideal buy-the-dip zones if we get a fade first.

8. Ichimoku (Daily, qualitative)

• Tenkan (≈ 9-period) < Kijun (≈ 26-period) cross upwards likely occurred around 10/24 as price reclaimed 111–112k; current price is testing/near the cloud base (113–115k). A daily close inside/above the cloud often precedes multi-session follow-through provided Kijun (~112.5k) holds as a retest.

9. Bollinger and mean reversion (H1)

• The breakout touched/pressed the upper band ~113.8–114.0k, then flagged while bands began to open. A shallow flag near the upper band with no impulsive rejection increases odds of continuation after a modest reset.

10. Volume, OBV, and profile

• 10/10 capitulation set a major volume node. Since then, green days on rising/adequate volume outnumber red into the recent drift up (10/23–10/26). OBV would be trending up from the 10/17 trough.
• Intraday 10/26 showed volume expansion on the 112.7k breakout, then balanced. Volume-by-price likely heavy 111–112.5k (HVN), with a light pocket 112.7–113.6k that can refuel on a retest before a push to 114.4–115.0k.

11. Candlestick signals

• 10/17 formed a hammer-like session (long downside wick) after the 10/10 crash, later confirmed by higher closes. Recent candles show small real bodies near highs (10/24–10/26), signaling steady bid absorption rather than exhaustion.

12. Elliott wave sketch (heuristic)

• From 10/17: Wave 1 to ~110.6k (10/20), Wave 2 to ~107.7k (10/22), Wave 3 in progress with subdivisions into today’s 113.86k. Expect a shallow Wave 4 pullback (112.8–112.2k) before a Wave 5 test of 114.6–115.5k.

13. Anchored VWAP (qualitative)

• From 10/10 selloff low, an aVWAP would reside near the heavy acceptance band around 111.5–112.0k. Trading above an aVWAP from a capitulative pivot is constructive; retests typically attract dip buyers.

14. Pattern recognition

• H1 ascending triangle breakout over 112.7k with a subsequent bull flag at 113.4–113.9k. Measured move from the base (≈111.2–112.7k; 1.5k range) projects ~114.2k from the breakout, aligning with the 50% retrace (114.9k) and prior pivot (114.4k).

15. Risk scenarios and probabilities (24h)

• Bull case (60%): Hold 112.8–112.2k, break 113.86k, extend to 114.4–115.5k, potential wick to 115.8–116.0k if momentum catches stops above 114.4k.
• Base/meh case (25%): Range 112.2–113.9k persists as the market builds energy; close near 113.3–113.7k.
• Bear case (15%): Lose 112.2k decisively → 111.8/111.2k test; failure there opens 110.5k. Would reassess long bias only if 110.9–110.5k breaks on strong volume.

16. Synthesis and trade plan

• Confluences for upside: reclaimed 20DMA, fresh MACD daily cross, H1 bull flag, 50% fib target 114.9k, and thick support 112.2–113.0k. Overhead resistance exists but is proximate and well-mapped; a stop-run through 113.86/114.40 can unlock 114.9–115.5.
• Execution preference: Limit buy on a shallow dip into 112.9k (prior breakout shelf), aiming for 115.2k within 24h. Invalidation for the thesis sits below 111.6–111.2k on a closing basis; not part of the requested output but key for risk control.

24-hour price path expectation

• Likely path: Early-session dip toward 112.9k ± 0.4k → rebound, reattempt 113.86k → break and run to 114.4k → consolidation → extension to 114.9–115.2k. End-of-window: 114.6–115.0k probability-weighted.

Bottom line

• The post-crash repair rally remains intact; breadth of supports below and multiple confluences above suggest buying dips remains the higher-odds play over the next 24 hours.