BTC: Buy the Dip into the Pivot—Aiming for a 116k Re-Test Within 24 Hours

Executive summary and directional bias

• Bias next 24h: Buy-the-dip within a recovering but range-bound regime. Expect a pullback towards the daily pivot/50% retrace confluence, then a rebound to re-test 116k.
• Expected 24h range: 113,600 – 116,200
• Strategy: Place a limit long near 113,700–114,100 support cluster; target the 115,900–116,100 supply and fib confluence.

Step-by-step multi-method analysis

1. Market regime and structure (daily -> hourly)

• Post-crash stabilization: After the 10-10 high-volume breakdown (121.7k -> 113.2k, massive volume), BTC set a capitulation low near 106.47k on 10-17 and has since built a rising structure of higher lows into 10-26/27.
• Current context: Price 114,478 is holding above last week’s range midpoint and above the 20D average (see below), but under a heavy supply shelf around 115.9–116.1k.
• Intraday (hourly): Today tagged 116,070 and rejected, then drifted lower to 114.48k into the close of the provided data, suggesting a mean-reversion move toward the daily pivot before buyers attempt another push.

2. Key levels and confluences

• Fibonacci retracement (swing 10-10 high 121,706 to 10-17 low 106,468) • 38.2%: ~112,294 • 50%: ~114,087 • 61.8%: ~115,884 Interpretation: The session high 116,070 aligns with the 61.8% retrace → classic resistance; the 50% near 114,087 acts as a magnet/support on pullbacks.
• Classic daily pivots (from 10-26 H/L/C: 115,260.9 / 111,268.5 / 114,472.4) • Pivot P ≈ 113,667 • R1 ≈ 116,066 (today’s high was 116,070 → textbook tag/reject) • S1 ≈ 112,074 • R2 ≈ 117,660; S2 ≈ 109,675 Interpretation: Price rejected exactly at R1 and remains above P. Typical path in such a day is mean reversion toward P (113,667) and, if defended, another attempt toward R1.
• Horizontal S/R clusters • 116.0–116.2k: multi-timeframe supply (R1 + 61.8% fib + prior Sept/Oct reaction zone) • 115.3–115.6k: intraday supply/VWAP vicinity; repeated rejections today • 114.0–114.4k: mid-pivot/fib cluster (50% fib 114,087 + prior closes 9/29–9/30) • 113.3–113.7k: daily pivot band and prior micro-structure shelf • 112.0–112.1k: S1 and high-volume support

3. Trend and moving averages

• 20D SMA (approx): ~112.5k → price trades above it, indicating short-term bullish bias after the October washout.
• 50D SMA (approx): ~114–115k; price is oscillating around it → range-building behavior.
• 1H EMAs: Price slipped below the 20/34 EMA cluster and hovers near/below the 50 EMA, while still well above the 200 EMA → short-term momentum cooled within a broader recovery. Interpretation: The higher timeframe tilt is shifting positive (above 20D SMA), but immediate-term momentum is paused; dip buy zones near 114.1k and 113.7k are favored.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Mid-40s to low-50s estimate. Rising from sub-40 post-crash to neutral → room to the upside without overbought stress.
• Hourly RSI(14): Pulled back from mid-60s near the 116k test to mid-40s/low-40s on the late-session selloff → approaching a tactical buy region if 113.7–114.1k is probed.
• Stochastic (1H): Likely curling out of oversold as price nears support; good for bounce setups. Interpretation: Oscillators are neutral-to-bullish on daily and nearing buy zones on hourly.

5. MACD and histogram

• Daily MACD: After the October downdraft, the fast line is curling up toward the slow, histogram improving toward positive → supports buying dips.
• Hourly MACD: Rolled negative after the 116k rejection, stabilizing as price approaches support. A bullish cross on 1H from 113.7–114.1k would be a high-confidence trigger.

6. Volatility, Bollinger Bands, ATR

• Daily ATR (post-crash regime): ~3.0–4.5k range. Today’s 1H volatility also supports a 2–3k swing potential within 24h.
• Bollinger Bands (daily): Price reclaimed the mid-band recently; bands are still expanded from the crash but slowly tightening. A tag of the mid-band/mean near 113.7–114.3k is typical before attempting the upper band path. Interpretation: Expect a 24h oscillation roughly 113.6–116.2; upside attempts likely stall near 116k unless volume expands.

7. Volume and order-flow proxies

• The 10-10 liquidation candle showed capitulation; subsequent sessions show constructive accumulation (OBV proxy higher vs 10-17–10-22).
• Today’s rejection printed a clear supply response at R1; however, the pullback volume expansion into 19:00–20:00 suggests a liquidity sweep that often precedes a bounce from the next support pocket (113.7–114.1k).
• Volume nodes: 110–112k remains a major high-volume node; 114–116k is building a secondary node, indicating acceptance forming above 112k.

8. Ichimoku (directional context)

• Daily: Price likely probing into/below a thinning cloud with Tenkan rising and Kijun flattening. A pullback to the Kijun/Tenkan area (approx 113.5–114.5) is typical before continuation.
• 1H: Price currently near/below the Tenkan and cloud base; a reclaim above ~115.3 would invite a retest of 116k.

9. Statistical and pattern read

• Mean reversion: R1 rejection days have a high propensity to rotate toward the pivot. With P ≈ 113,667 and 50% fib ≈ 114,087, the highest-probability entry is in that overlap.
• Pattern: Short-term ascending recovery channel from 10-17, with a local rounded top at 116k; pullback towards the channel midline/pivot is consistent, followed by a bounce attempt.
• No clear bear continuation breakdown yet; daily higher low structure remains intact above ~112k.

10. Scenario planning (next 24h)

• Base case (60%): Drift down to 114.1k ± 0.3k, brief liquidity sweep toward 113.7k pivot, then rebound to 115.6k and a test/feint at 115.9–116.1k. Close the session near 115.3–115.8.
• Bull extension (25%): Strong bid defends 114.3–114.5k early; a quick VWAP reclaim at ~115.3k fuels a squeeze through 116.07 R1 toward 116.8–117.0k, possibly tagging R2 117.66k if volume expands.
• Bear risk (15%): Loss of 113.7k pivot and 114.1k fib with momentum; price slides to S1 ~112.07k; buyers likely defend first test. This is invalidation for the dip-buy idea within the 24h horizon.

11. Trade construction and risk

• Entry thesis: Confluence buy at 113.7–114.1k (daily pivot + 50% fib + mid-band/MA area). The R:R to 115.9–116.1k is favorable given ATR and known supply.
• Invalidation: Sustained break below 113.3k opens 112.1k (S1). For active risk control, a stop would sit near/under 112.2k; not required in fields but critical operationally.
• Take-profit logic: First objective 115.9–116.1k (61.8% fib + R1 neighborhood). If momentum is strong, an extension to 116.8–117.7k is feasible; however, base case respects 116k supply.

12. Synthesis

• We have a high-confidence confluence: 61.8% fib at 115,884 and R1 at 116,066 capped price; pivot 113,667 and 50% fib 114,087 sit below current price. Momentum is neutralizing intraday but constructive on the daily. The statistically favored path is a dip into the pivot/fib, followed by a bounce toward 116k. Buying the dip is superior to chasing strength into supply.

Decision and pricing

• Direction: Buy (Long position)
• Optimal open: 113,700 (at/near daily pivot; expect mean reversion tag)
• Target close: 115,950 (just beneath 116k confluence to increase fill odds on take-profit)

Risk notes

• If 113,700 does not print, an alternative is a momentum add-on above 115,300 (VWAP/1H EMA reclaim), targeting the same 115,950–116,100 zone, but with inferior R:R.
• If 113,700 breaks decisively and retests from below, stand down; next high-probability buy is near 112,100 (S1) with revised targets.

24h outlook summary

• Expect consolidation-to-bounce behavior: probe 114.1k → bounce to 115.6k–116.0k. Only a loss of 113.3k turns the 24h tape outright bearish toward 112.1k.