BTC poised for a spring-and-squeeze: buying the 38.2% retrace for a push toward 115k

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical read (Daily, 4H proxy, 1H)

1. Market structure and trend

• Daily structure: After the 10/10 capitulation (intraday washout to ~104.6k, daily close ~113.2k), BTC formed a higher-low sequence: 10/17 ~106.5k → 10/19 ~108.7k → 10/20 ~110.6k → 10/25 ~111.6k → 10/26 ~114.5k. The 10/27 high printed 116.27k. Today’s pullback to 112.42k retains a higher-low vs 10/25 (111.64k). Bias on the daily remains constructive unless 111.3–111.6k breaks.
• 4H proxy (derived from intraday): Up-leg from 10/17 to 10/27, then a corrective phase starting 10/27–10/28. Today’s high-volume drop tagged a key retracement zone and bounced. Structure: short-term lower highs on the 1H, but daily trend intact.
• 1H structure: Lower-highs after the 14:00–16:00 UTC push (H: 116.05k at 14:00). Sharp selloff at 19:00–20:00 to L: 112.42k with a large volume spike, followed by a stabilizing bounce to ~112.85k. This looks like a local liquidity sweep/climax into support, often preceding a mean-reversion bounce.

2. Key levels (confluence of horizontal S/R, Fib, moving means)

• Resistance: 114.6–115.6k (hourly supply and intraday congestion), 116.05–116.27k (10/27 swing high and today’s 14:00 spike). Above that: 118.6–120.7k (early Oct pivot band).
• Support: 112.53k (38.2% Fib of 10/17 low 106.47k → 10/27 high 116.27k), 111.37k (50% Fib), 110.21k (61.8% Fib), 111.0–111.6k (20D mean cluster and prior daily lows), 109.7k (late Sep VA), 108.2k (late Sep/early Oct base).
• Moving averages (approximations from provided window):
  • 20D SMA ≈ 111.6k. Price ~112.85k = modestly above, consistent with an ongoing daily pullback into trend support.
  • 50D SMA likely in the 112–114k region (given Aug–Oct prints); we’re near this band, implying a fair-value zone rather than extended.
  • 200D SMA not computable precisely from the dataset; qualitatively likely below current price given 2025’s overall uptrend.

3. Fibonacci and mean-reversion context

• From 10/17 → 10/27, the 38.2% retrace = ~112.53k. Today’s low 112.42k wicked just through and reclaimed into the close of the hour: a classic shallow retracement holding the bullish structure. A 50% test at 111.37k is the next magnet if 112.5k fails, but as of now the shallow hold skews bullish for a bounce first.
• Bollinger (20D): Midline ~20D SMA ≈ 111.6k; bands estimated ~±5–6k given recent volatility. Current price is just above the midline after tagging the lower half of the band intraday; statistical mean-reversion favors a drift back toward the upper half (114.5–115.5k) if the support holds.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI (qualitative): After a strong recovery off 10/17, RSI likely mid-50s to low-60s. Today’s pullback likely cooled it without breaking the RSI bull regime. No daily bearish breakdown signal yet.
• 1H RSI (qualitative): Oversold print into 20:00 hour with a subsequent bounce; typical of a near-term relief leg.
• MACD daily: Turned up during the 10/17→10/27 ascent; histogram likely contracting with today’s pullback, but no definitive bearish cross yet. On 1H, MACD is negative but curling after the volume spike—consistent with a tactical bounce.

5. Volume and order flow

• Extremely high hourly volume on the 20:00 UTC down-candle (largest of the day) with a long lower wick (L ~112.42k, C ~112.88k). This is often a capitulation/stop-run signature, grabbing liquidity under 113–113.5k before reverting. Follow-through buying on the next hours would confirm; even absent that, the presence of the wick at a Fib confluence is constructive.
• Daily volumes since 10/17 show strong participation on up days and balanced on pullbacks, supporting accumulation rather than distribution.

6. Ichimoku (directional read)

• Price is near/just above the likely cloud top on lower timeframes and above a rising Kijun on daily estimates. Conversion line (Tenkan) likely slipped below price intraday then was reclaimed. This mix typically implies consolidation within a broader uptrend—with pullbacks finding bids near the Kijun/20D SMA cluster (~111.5–112k).

7. VWAP and intraday mean

• Session VWAP (approx from 00:00 UTC) sits above current price after the late-day dump, implying a negative intraday skew that often invites a mean-reversion test toward VWAP/EMA bands (113.7–114.5k) once the sell climax abates.

8. Pattern diagnostics

• Range re-accumulation: Since 10/21, price has rotated between ~110–116k. Today’s probe to the lower half of the range with absorption supports a continuation of range behavior (rotation up toward 114.5–115.5k) before any decisive trend move.
• Wyckoff lens: The 20:00 sweep below intraday supports resembles a spring of the local range, suggesting a mark-up back to the range mid/upper.
• Elliott micro: Impulse 10/17→10/27 (Wave 1), 10/27→10/28 corrective pullback (Wave 2) to 38.2%. If valid, a Wave 3 micro leg could target a re-test of 115.5–116.3k in the next sessions; near term, 114.9–115.3k is the first objective.

9. Risk markers and invalidation

• Hold above 112.5k keeps the shallow-retracement bullish script. A decisive hourly close below 112.5k opens 111.4k (50% Fib) and 111.0–111.6k (daily pivot/20D SMA). A breakdown below 111.3k would negate the long bias and invite 110.2k.
• Expected 24h volatility (ATR proxy): 14D ATR approximates 3.5–4.5k after the 10/10 shock. A 24h expected range from 112.8k projects ~110.3k on the downside and ~115.3k on the upside, with skew toward the upside if 112.5k holds.

10. 24-hour outlook and scenario probabilities

• Base case (55%): Support holds at 112.5–112.8k → squeeze to 113.7k (intraday MA/VWAP cluster) → extension to 114.6–115.0k. If momentum is healthy, a probe of 115.5k. Close near 114.7–115.1k.
• Bear case (30–35%): A clean break and acceptance below 112.5k → slide to 111.3–111.6k. Buyers likely defend there on first touch. Only if that fails do we see 110.2k.
• Chop (10–15%): 112.6–114.0k ping-pong if participation dries during Asia hours before EU/US drive resolution.

11. Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Confluence in favor of a tactical long:
  • Shallow 38.2% retrace held with a high-volume wick at 112.42–112.53k.
  • Price above the 20D mean cluster; daily higher-lows intact.
  • Intraday capitulation signature followed by stabilization, often leading to a mean reversion toward 114.5–115.5k.
• Optimal entry: Use a buy-limit in front of the 38.2% Fib and prior wick (112.6–112.7k) to maximize R:R. Current price at ~112.85k is close; patient bids may get filled on minor retests.
• Initial profit-taking zone: 114.9–115.3k (hourly supply, range mid/upper, and prior intraday congestion). This is reachable within the 24h expected move if the base case plays out.
• Invalidation would be a firm break and acceptance below 112.5k (hourly closes) progressing to 111.3k; such a move would flip the near-term bias to neutral/bearish until a fresh reaction at 111.3–111.0k.

Conclusion: Bias long for a 24-hour mean reversion toward 114.9–115.3k while 112.5k holds. Place a buy-limit near 112.65k; target 114.95k for a clean 2% move. Manage risk tightly under 112.3–111.9k if applying stops.