BTC poised for a reflexive pop: Buy the 111k dip, aim for a 113.2k magnet within 24 hours

Executive Summary

• Bias (next 24h): Mild bullish mean-reversion within a short-term corrective down-channel; expect a grind higher toward 112.8–113.5k after a buyable dip into 110.9–111.2k. Range expectation 110.5–113.6k.
• Rationale: Price has retraced to the 38.2–50% Fibonacci zone of the Oct 17 → Oct 27 advance, tagged a high-volume intraday low (109.65k) with immediate absorption and recovery, is hovering around the 20D SMA, and sits near the Ichimoku Tenkan; market profile and prior pivots suggest a magnet above near 112.9–113.3k.
• Action: Buy (Long). Optimal entry 111.1k on a minor pullback. Take profit at 113.2k within 24h.

1. Market Structure and Price Action

• Higher timeframe context (Daily): • Oct 10 produced a capitulation day (intraday low ~104.6k), followed by a secondary low on Oct 17 (~103.6k close), then a strong rebound to an Oct 27 swing high (~116.27k). This established a sequence of higher lows (Oct 22 low ~106.78k vs Oct 17 ~103.6k) and a higher high (Oct 27), i.e., an emerging uptrend off mid-October. • The last two sessions (Oct 28–29) are a countertrend pullback from 116.27k. Today’s intraday low at 109.65k aligns with the 50% retrace of the 10/17→10/27 leg, followed by a sharp recovery to ~111.5k, forming a potential bullish rejection (long lower wick on intraday bars).
• Near-term (Hourly, last 24h): • Lower highs at ~113.61k and lower lows culminating at 109.65k define a short-term descending channel. The 18:00 bar shows a high-volume flush to 109.65k with quick recovery—classic stop run/absorption signature. Subsequent hours reclaimed 111k+ and held. • Price is now oscillating around 111.3–111.6k, below overhead supply 112.8–113.6k but above tactical supports ~110.6–111.2k.

2. Key Levels: Supports and Resistances

• Major resistance: 116.27k (10/27 high), 115.26–116.08k supply (10/26–10/28 highs), 114.40–114.75k pivot cluster.
• Near resistance: 112.9–113.6k (intraday highs today and yesterday, hourly supply, market profile POC zone).
• Major support: 109.9–110.6k (50% retrace and multi-day pivots), 108.44k (61.8% retrace), 106.47k (10/17 close), 104.6k (10/10 spike low).
• Near support: 111.0–111.2k (20D SMA confluence, intraday rotation base), 110.6k (10/20 close and repeated intraday pivots).

3. Moving Averages (Trend Filters)

• 20D SMA ≈ 111.07k: Current price 111.48k sits just above—neutral to mildly supportive for mean reversion.
• 50D SMA (approx) ≈ 113.5–114.5k: Price below, implying broader intermediate trend still under pressure until reclaimed.
• Slope/stack: 20D flat to slightly rising post mid-Oct rebound; 50D rolling over mildly after early-Oct damage. Read: tactical long within a larger consolidation.

4. Momentum Indicators

• RSI (Daily, est.): ~48–52 neutral. Pullback from overbought post-10/27 without entering deep oversold—room for a bounce.
• RSI (Hourly): Oversold print likely occurred into 18:00 flush with a quick recovery—potential bullish momentum divergence vs the 15:00 dip (price made a lower low while RSI likely made a higher low). This supports a near-term pop to test resistance.
• MACD (Daily): Bearish cross recently but near the zero line—indicative of a corrective pause within a broader basing process. A small bounce is common from these levels.
• Stochastics (Hourly): Likely turned up from deep oversold post-flush—short-term bullish mean reversion signal.

5. Volatility and Bands

• ATR(14D) est. ≈ 3.5–4.0k: Implies typical daily swings can reach 3–4k. Today’s range (approx 3.9k) aligns with ATR; tomorrow could see another 2–3k intraday oscillation.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2 on Daily): Mid-band ≈ 111.07k; price is near the mid-band with upper ≈ 116k and lower ≈ 106k. Being near the middle post flush favors a drift toward the upper band’s lower half (112.8–114.0k).

6. Ichimoku (Daily, approximations)

• Tenkan (9-mid) ≈ (116.27k high, 106.78k low) / 2 ≈ 111.53k: Price is hovering around Tenkan—inflection level; reclaim and hold above favors a short-term bid.
• Kijun (26-mid) ≈ (126.20k high, 103.60k low) / 2 ≈ 114.90k: Price below Kijun—intermediate headwind remains until >114.9k.
• Cloud: Likely overhead to flat—suggests chop within a larger sideways phase. Short-term: a Tenkan reclaim often produces a test toward Kijun or prior pivots (112.9–114.0k).

7. Fibonacci Mapping (Oct 17 low 103.60k → Oct 27 high 116.27k)

• 23.6%: 113.28k (capped yesterday/today)
• 38.2%: 111.43k (current price hovering here)
• 50%: 109.94k (today’s low 109.65k tagged and reclaimed)
• 61.8%: 108.44k (deeper support if another leg down occurs) Interpretation: Price bounced from the 50% retrace and is battling the 38.2%—healthy, measured pullback behavior. Holding 111.4k favors a rotation toward 112.9–113.3k.

8. Volume, Order Flow, and Profile

• Massive hourly volume on the 18:00 flush to 109.65k (16B) with immediate recovery—classic absorption/“spring” behavior, signaling responsive buyers at 110k round-number and 50% Fib.
• Lighter volumes on subsequent bounce—typical of a mean-reversion drift. If volumes expand into 112.9–113.3k, expect first-pass rejection; if they remain subdued, a slow grind is likely.
• Volume Profile (recent days): POC/High-traffic area concentrated around 112.8–113.3k—a price “magnet” and first resistance band.

9. Pattern Recognition

• Daily: Potential bullish hammer if the session closes nearer highs (post flush), reinforcing near-term bounce odds on next session open.
• Intraday: Descending channel pullback; the quality of the 50% retrace reaction suggests a bull flag variant. Confirmation requires reclaiming 112.9–113.3k.
• Wyckoff lens: The 18:00 bar resembles a spring/shakeout in the pullback trading range, typically followed by a test and markup toward the range top (112.9–113.3k).

10. VWAP/AWAP and Pivots

• Daily Pivot (from 10/28 H/L/C): P ≈ 113.78k; R1 ≈ 114.60k; S1 ≈ 112.14k. Price traded below P and visited under S1 today with a recovery. Next 24h, a drift toward S1→P is plausible; clearing P would require momentum beyond our base case.
• Intraday VWAP (today): Price spent much of the day below VWAP, then closed the distance on the rebound; tomorrow’s session often opens with a VWAP test if overnight is balanced.

11. Elliott Wave Heuristic

• Oct 17 → Oct 27 rally as Wave 1; current pullback as Wave 2 correcting 38.2–50%. If correct, a Wave 3 initiation attempt could begin from 110–111k with an initial objective to take out minor resistance (112.9–113.6k). This aligns with the mean-reversion bias for the next 24h.

12. Confluence and Scenarios

• Bullish factors (24h): • Bounce from 50% Fib with high-volume absorption at 109.65k. • Price oscillating around 20D SMA and Tenkan—inflection area, often a springboard for a reflexive pop. • Market profile magnet above near 112.9–113.3k.

• Bearish risks: • Price remains below 50D SMA and daily Kijun (~114.9k), indicating broader supply above. • Failure to hold 111.4k (38.2%) could reopen a retest of 110.0k and possibly 108.4k (61.8%).

• Base Case (60% probability): Buy-the-dip holds 110.9–111.2k; price rotates higher to 112.8–113.5k, stalling on first test.

• Bear Case (25%): Loss of 111.0k leads to 110.0–109.9k retest; if liquidity is thin, a probe to 108.4k (61.8%) is possible before rebounding.

• Bull Extension (15%): A stronger squeeze reclaims 113.3k quickly and extends to 114.0–114.6k (daily pivot/R1 zone), though less likely within 24h absent a catalyst.

13. Trade Plan (24h Horizon)

• Direction: Buy (Long).
• Optimal Entry: 111.1k limit on a minor pullback toward the 20D SMA/38.2% Fib confluence (111.07–111.43k). Alternate: market buy 111.3–111.5k if momentum improves.
• Take Profit: 113.2k (in front of the 112.9–113.6k resistance cluster to increase fill probability within 24h).
• Suggested Invalidation (stop, not part of order schema): 109.35–109.90k (below 50% Fib and today’s absorption zone), depending on risk tolerance. Risk ≈ 1.2–1.8k for ≈ 2.1k reward → ~1.2–1.7R potential within 24h.

14. Why not Short here?

• Shorting into 111–112k risks fading a fresh high-volume spring, with a nearby profile magnet above and the 20D SMA/Tenkan offering tactical support. The asymmetric location favors a brief long to resistance rather than an immediate short. A better short would be at 112.9–113.6k if momentum stalls there.

15. Time and Execution Considerations

• Liquidity tends to rise into US/EU overlap; if entry doesn’t fill on a dip, consider a staggered entry: 40% at 111.3k, 60% at 111.1k. Avoid chasing above 112.0k; at that point risk/reward compresses.

Conclusion

• The confluence of Fib support (38.2–50%), 20D SMA/Tenkan proximity, high-volume absorption at the 110k handle, and a profile magnet above implies a bounce toward 112.9–113.5k in the next 24h. Position: Buy on dip. Target: 113.2k.