BTC Teeters Below Pivot: Short the Bounce Before the Next Leg Lower

Comprehensive multi-timeframe, multi-tool technical walkthrough (24h outlook)

1. Market structure and trend context

• Daily structure (Aug → today): Price topped near 126,198 (Oct 6) and has since put in a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Key breaks: 121–122k lost on Oct 10 (large volume breakdown), relief to ~116k mid-Oct, then another leg lower to 106–107k (Oct 16–18). The late-Oct bounce stalled at 114.47k (Oct 26) and rolled over again, closing Oct 29 near 110.06k and printing fresh intraday lows today to ~106.40k. Structure remains bearish.
• Recent pivots: • Lower highs: 116.10k (Sep 12), 114.47k (Oct 26), 114.12k (Oct 27), 112.96k (Oct 28), 110.06k (Oct 29). • Lower lows: 106.47k (Oct 17) and 106.40k (today).
• Hourly structure (last 24h): A clean stair-step down with failed bounces; latest action shows a minor bounce from 106.40k to ~107.46k, still below intraday resistance bands (108.3–109.5k). Bearish market structure intact.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• Daily 20/50/100 SMAs (estimates from the series): Price trades below the 20D and 50D MAs (20D ≈ 111–112k, 50D ≈ 113–115k). The 20D < 50D slope is negative, confirming a short-term downtrend. Price also below the 100D → medium-term trend down.
• Hourly MAs: Price consistently below the 50H/200H zones (confluence ~109.5–111k), capping bounces. Any rally into those areas is likely to meet supply.

3. Momentum

• Daily RSI: Weak, hovering in the mid-to-high 30s after multiple distribution days; no confirmed bullish divergence against price.
• Hourly RSI: Rebounded from oversold during the 106.4k sweep but remains sub-50 on rallies, typical of bear-market bounces. Setup favors selling rips rather than buying dips.
• MACD (Daily): Below zero, histogram negative; no bullish cross. (1H) Histogram easing toward zero on bounce → room for a small push up before momentum rolls back down.

4. Volatility and range (ATR, regime)

• Daily ATR has expanded since the Oct 10 breakdown, with typical daily ranges now ~4–6k. Today’s H/L ≈ 111.54k/106.40k (~5.1k), in line with elevated volatility. Expect another 3–5k of range over the next 24h.

5. Volume and participation

• Large volume on down legs (Oct 10, Oct 14–17, today’s flush) and lighter on up-days suggests distribution. Today’s intraday sell waves around 18:00–20:00 UTC printed heavy volume on new lows, then only a modest bounce—supply still dominant.

6. Key support/resistance (confluence map)

• Immediate resistance: • 108.32–108.80k (hourly supply shelf; minor LH cluster) • 109.48k (Fib 38.2% of 114.47k → 106.40k swing; see Fib section) • 110.10–110.56k (prior close 110.06k; R1 pivot at ~110.56k) • 111.36–111.70k (hourly highs; Fib 61.8% ≈ 111.39k)
• Immediate support: • 106.45k (today’s cluster of lows; liquidity magnet) • 105.41k (Daily pivot S1) • 103.60–103.34k (Oct 17 daily low; pivot S2 region) • 101.9–102.5k (measured extension zone if momentum accelerates)

7. Fibonacci retracement and extension (latest swing 114.47k → 106.40k)

• Range = 8.07k.
• 38.2%: 106.40k + 0.382*8.07k ≈ 109.48k (first strong sell zone)
• 50%: ≈ 110.44k (confluent with R1 ~110.56k)
• 61.8%: ≈ 111.39k (confluent with hourly supply and prior highs)
• Downside extensions from the most recent intraday bounce (~110.83k → 106.40k): • 1.272 ≈ 105.3k • 1.618 ≈ 104.1k These line up near pivot S1/S2 and prior daily lows, creating a credible path toward 105.4k then 104.1k if momentum resumes.

8. Bollinger Bands (Daily)

• Price riding the lower band following a band expansion—typical of trend continuation. Mean reversion bounces tend to fade near the 20D mid-band (~111–112k) or lower highs; with the band pointing down, odds favor selling near midline re-tests.

9. Ichimoku (Daily)

• Price is below the Kumo; Tenkan < Kijun, both trending down. Kijun resistance is likely near ~111–112k; cloud overhang higher. Any rally into Tenkan/Kijun should face supply.

10. VWAP and intraday bias

• Today’s session VWAP is likely above last traded price (est. ~109–110k) given early-session prices near 111k. Price below VWAP indicates intraday bearish bias. Fades near VWAP/pivot zones tend to have favorable R:R in downtrends.

11. Classical patterns

• Descending channel/flag since the Oct 26 lower high (~114.47k). The measured move of the last bear flag leg (~111k to ~106.4k) targets ~103–105k on continuation.
• No validated double-bottom; instead we have clustered equal-lows around 106.4–106.5k—often a liquidity pool that attracts another sweep before any durable bounce.

12. Market Profile/Volume Profile read

• Recent high-volume nodes: ~110.5–111k and ~108.5–109k; today’s acceptance shifted lower to ~107–108k. Overhead HVNs should act as resistance; beneath, LVNs toward 105–104k invite continuation if sellers press.

13. Pivot levels (derived from today’s H/L/C ≈ 111.54k/106.40k/107.50k)

• Pivot (P): ~108.48k
• R1: ~110.56k; R2: ~113.62k
• S1: ~105.41k; S2: ~103.34k
• Interpretation: Price below P → bearish; rallies to P/R1 are opportunities to fade.

14. Liquidity/stop dynamics

• Tight cluster of equal lows around 106.45k likely holds resting stops; a run through 106.4k into 105.4k is a plausible next step. If momentum accelerates, S2 (≈103.34k) and the Oct 17 daily low (≈103.60k) are in play within 24h.

15. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• From the Oct 26 LH (~114.47k), price appears to be in a 5-wave impulsive down: (1) to ~110.6k, (2) to ~112.9k, (3) to ~106.4–107k, (4) bounce toward ~108.5–109.5k (developing), (5) continuation toward ~104–105k. This aligns with momentum/volume and Fib extension confluence.

16. Time-of-day flows

• US session led the selloff; Asia open often extends prevailing momentum after a shallow bounce. Baseline path: modest lift toward pivot/VWAP (108.5–109.5k) → fade → retest/sweep 106.4k → 105.4k. If sellers press, an overshoot toward ~104.1k is feasible.

17. Risk and invalidation

• Invalidation for the near-term short idea sits above 110.6–111.4k (R1 + 61.8% Fib + hourly supply). A sustained reclaim of 111.5k and hold would threaten the setup and open a run toward 112.9–114.1k. Until then, rallies are sellable.

Synthesis and 24h forecast

• Bias: Bearish. Expect a relief bounce toward 108.5–109.5k (pivot/Fib/VWAP confluence) followed by continuation lower into 105.4k, with risk of extension to ~104.1k. A daily close likely in the 105–107k band.

Actionable plan (next 24h)

• Strategy: Sell the bounce into confluence.
• Optimal entry: ~108.48k (daily pivot), acceptable scale up to ~109.5k (38.2% Fib) if reached.
• Primary target: ~105.41k (S1 pivot). Stretch target (not required for this plan): ~104.10k (1.618 extension/S2 vicinity).
• Invalidation (stop idea): ~111.2k (above 61.8% Fib/overhead supply).