BTC poised for a fade: Sell the 110.1–110.5k bounce toward 106.9k in the next 24 hours

Important: This is not financial advice. For educational purposes only. Crypto is highly volatile—use strict risk management and size positions so a single trade risks 0.5–1% of account equity. A protective stop-loss is essential.

Executive summary (24h outlook)

• Bias: Slightly bearish-to-rangebound over the next 24 hours.
• Expected range: 106,800 – 111,000, with a higher probability of a fade from 110,100–110,500 and a retest of 108,700–107,000.
• Key trigger: 110,100–110,350 (38.2% retracement and intraday supply) likely to cap rallies unless reclaimed decisively.
• Trade idea: Sell a bounce into 110,150 (limit short); protective stop ~111,550; take-profit ~106,900. Approx. R:R ~ 2.3:1 if filled.

Multi-timeframe structure and trend

• Daily structure: Since the Oct 6 high (~126,200) BTC has carved lower highs and lower lows. The dramatic Oct 10 selloff (largest volume day in the series) began a distribution->downtrend phase. A lower-high bounce into Oct 27 (~116,273) was followed by renewed weakness to Oct 30 low (~106,377). Current price (109,419) sits below the 20D and likely below the 50D SMA, signaling a cautious bearish bias.
• H1 intraday structure (Oct 31): A series of lower highs (111,004 → 110,147 → 109,806) against a flat-to-slightly-rising base (108,753 → 108,606 → 108,959) forms a contracting/descending triangle. Price is hovering just under the intraday VWAP/pivot zone, favoring a sell-the-rip approach until 110,8–111,2 is reclaimed on strong momentum.

Key levels and confluences

• Higher timeframe supply: 114,100–116,300 (Oct 26–27 supply, Kijun/Cloud region by approximation). Unlikely to be tested in 24h without a catalyst.
• Local resistance (24–48h):
  • 110,100–110,350: 38.2% Fib of the Oct 27 → Oct 30 downswing, and today’s repeated rejection band.
  • 110,800–111,200: Round-number psychological + daily R1 pivot zone; intraday high 111,004 printed and faded.
  • 112,500: 61.8% Fib retracement; 112,1–112,6 was prior support now resistance.
• Local support:
  • 109,100–108,700: Intraday base and today’s S/R flip cluster.
  • 108,300–108,400: Oct 30 close and recurring Aug/Sept reaction area.
  • 106,800–106,400: Structural swing support (Oct 17/30 extreme lows). First strong demand likely here.

Momentum and trend indicators

• 20D SMA: Approx ~110,685 (est. from last 20 closes). Price below it → mild bearish skew.
• 50D SMA: Likely near 112–113k (given Aug–Oct prints). Price below it → downtrend context.
• RSI(14) daily (est.): ~57, derived from last 14 changes. This looks counterintuitive to the short bias; the nuance is that RSI has recovered from deeply oversold, yet price remains below key moving averages and resistance bands. In downtrends RSI often stalls in 50–60 before rolling over.
• MACD daily: Likely below zero but flattening after Oct 30 rebound—early mean-reversion but not a confirmed trend reversal.
• Stochastics daily: Likely mid-zone; no buy/sell extremes; supports range trade.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily: Roughly ~3,000 (observed typical daily ranges). Implies a plausible 24h move of ±2.5–3.5k from entry points.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Midline near ~110.7k; lower band likely ~108k; price oscillating near lower/mid band with failed midline tests—typical for a bearish channel where bounces fade near the mid band.

Fibonacci mapping (recent leg)

• Swing reference: High 116,273 (Oct 27) to low 106,377 (Oct 30) → range = 9,896.
  • 38.2%: 110,161 (confluence with repeated intraday rejection today).
  • 50%: 111,325 (near daily R1 band/psych 111k).
  • 61.8%: 112,489 (just beneath reclaimed-112 tests that failed this week). Interpretation: Without a clean reclaim of 110,160 and sustained acceptance above 111,300, base-building remains fragile; rallies into 110–111 are sell zones.

Pivot levels (from Oct 30 H/L/C)

• Pivot P ≈ 108,764.86.
• R1 ≈ 111,153.03; R2 ≈ 114,000.52.
• S1 ≈ 105,917.37; S2 ≈ 103,529.20. Read: Price oscillated around P; R1 rejected (peak ~111,004). Under R1, sellers keep control. S1 aligns with the 106.0–106.5k demand shelf allowing a 24h downside magnet near 106.8–106.9k without necessarily tagging S1.

Ichimoku (daily, approximated)

• Price below Tenkan and Kijun; cloud likely above price given October’s break. This setup typically favors selling rallies into Tenkan/Kijun (111–114k zone).

Volume and participation

• Oct 10 breakdown printed the highest volume—often the start of a redistribution leg. Subsequent rallies have occurred on lower or uneven volumes and faded at resistance. Today’s intraday pops toward 110.8–111.0 were not accompanied by sustained heavy buy volume, and they failed near R1, reinforcing supply overhead.

Wyckoff read

• Post-Oct 1–6 markup, a distribution phase culminated in the Oct 10 Sign of Weakness. Current price action resembles a lower-level range with supply padding the 110–111 zone and down-side tests not yet exhausting demand near 106.4–108.3. The bias within such a redistribution is for continuation toward prior lows unless a clear Sign of Strength (SoS) breaks the LH/LL cadence. We haven’t seen SoS.

Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• A: 126.2k → 106.5k (~-19.7k), B: 106.5k → 116.3k, C: in progress with potential toward mid/upper 90s if the larger structure plays out. For the next 24h, that only contextualizes why the 110–111 zone is more likely to sell than break cleanly.

Order flow/microstructure

• H1 shows supply stepping in each time price pokes above 110.0–110.3. The base at 108.6–109.0 is fragile and functions as a staging area; if it breaks on an H1 close below ~108.70, momentum sellers likely press toward 107.2–106.9 quickly (ATR-compatible push).

Catalysts/timing

• Month-end flows (Oct 31) can add noise. Weekends often see thinner liquidity with stop-runs. Into Nov 1–2, a sweep up to 110.1–110.5 followed by a fade is a typical pattern in weak regimes.

Risk management and invalidation

• Primary invalidation: H1 acceptance >111,200 with follow-through would negate the immediate short bias and target 112.5–113.3 (50–61.8% Fib). That’s where a protective stop belongs.
• Suggested stop-loss for the plan: 111,550 (above R1 and today’s failed spike), keeping a reasonable buffer against stop-hunts.
• Sizing: For a 1% risk on a 100k account, risk per BTC ≈ 1,400 (111,550 − 110,150). Position ≈ 1000 / 1400 ≈ 0.71 BTC.

Trade plan (24h)

• Direction: Short the bounce (Sell the rip).
• Entry: Limit short 110,150 in the 110,100–110,350 supply/38.2% retrace pocket.
• Stop: 111,550 (place in your platform; schema here doesn’t include a stop field).
• Take-profit: 106,900 (just above structural support to increase fill probability).
• Alternate trigger (if no bounce): If H1 closes below 108,700 without having filled the limit, an impulsive breakdown short can be considered with a tighter stop (~110,100) and the same 106,900 target. Prefer the primary plan for better R:R.

Why short and not long here?

• Price is below the 20D/50D MAs and below daily R1; rallies have been sold; 38.2% retracement repeatedly caps; H1 triangle tilts bearish; pivot/R1 confluence aligns with failed probes; momentum hasn’t reclaimed the necessary thresholds (111.3/112.5) to flip the bias. The path of least resistance remains a grind lower or range fade rather than a breakout.

What would flip me bullish in the next 24h?

• An H1/H4 close above 111,300 followed by a hold-and-go that converts 111k into support, with rising volume and momentum breadth. That would target 112.5 → 113.3 and potentially the 114.0–114.5 cluster.

Bottom line

• Expect two-sided trade inside 108.7–110.8 with spikes, but the better odds setup is a fade from 110.1–110.35 toward 107.0 ± 200. The stop above 111.55 protects against a squeeze.