BTC Coils Beneath Resistance: Breakout Above 110.7k Targets 112.3k Within 24 Hours

Executive summary

• BTC is consolidating just above its 20‑day SMA with intraday higher‑lows and a flat overhead lid near 110.55–110.70k. Momentum has turned mildly positive (daily RSI high‑50s), MACD looks to be curling up, and price sits at the 0.382–0.786 fib confluence from recent swings. A buy‑stop breakout through ~110.7k has favorable asymmetry toward 111.4–112.4k over the next 24 hours, provided 110k holds on dips.

1. Multi‑timeframe price structure and trend

• Daily structure (Aug → now): After an August advance into mid‑September (~123–124k), October saw a sharp liquidation on Oct 10 (low ~104.6k), followed by a recovery into the 114–116k zone and a subsequent pullback to 106–109k late month. The last three daily closes built a rising sequence: 108.31k (Oct 30) → 109.56k (Oct 31) → 110.51k (current), suggesting a tentative higher‑low formation above 108.3k.
• 1D swing levels: • Major support: 106.47k (Oct 17 close), 104.58k (Oct 10 spike low).
  • Intermediate support: 109.56k (Oct 31 close), 108.31k (Oct 30 close), 107.20k (Oct 18 close).
  • Resistance: 110.96k (pivot R1), 111.39k (50% retrace of 114.47k→108.31k), 112.12–112.37k (0.618 retrace & pivot R2), then 114.12–114.47k.
• Hourly structure (past 24h): Series of higher lows from ~109.70 → 110.01 → 109.89 → 110.29 with a horizontal cap 110.55k. That’s a textbook ascending‑triangle bias. A clean break/hold over 110.65–110.70k typically targets measured move ≈ triangle height (~0.7–0.9k) added to the breakout, aligning with 111.4–111.6k first, and 112.1–112.4k extension.

2. Moving averages and slope

• 20‑day SMA ≈ 110.46k (computed). Price is marginally above, supportive for a near‑term bullish drift.
• 50‑day SMA (approx.) sits higher in the low‑113s to mid‑113s after September’s strength; price remains below it, so medium trend is still neutral‑to‑slightly bearish until >113k is reclaimed.
• 10‑day SMA (qualitatively) is flattening up after the late‑October selloff; alignment suggests early phase of a mean‑reversion bounce rather than a full trend resumption.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 58 (estimated from last 14 changes): neutral‑bullish, leaving room for upside before overbought.
• Hourly RSI is hovering mid‑50s with mild positive divergence vs. the 109.9k retest—supportive of a breakout push rather than immediate exhaustion.
• MACD (12,26,9) daily: After bottoming on Oct 30, histogram has likely flipped toward zero from negative, with lines curling upward—consistent with early momentum turn. On the hourly, MACD is positive but shallow, typical of a coil under resistance.

4. Volatility and bands

• ATR(14d) ≈ 4.5–5.0k, implying typical daily travel can accommodate 1.5–2.0k up‑moves without stretching.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) on daily: Center ≈ 110.46k; current price near mid‑band, with upper band likely in the 114–115k area. There’s upside room to the upper band on a continuation day.

5. Fibonacci and confluence mapping

• Swing A: 114.47k (Oct 26 high) → 108.31k (Oct 30 low).
  • 0.382 = 110.66k (current lid), 0.5 = 111.39k, 0.618 = 112.12k.
  • These levels align with pivot R1/R2 and hourly measured move targets, creating a strong confluence ladder: 110.66k → 111.39k → 112.12–112.37k.
• Prior swing B: 111.71k (Oct 20 high) → 106.38k (Oct 30 low).
  • 0.786 ≈ 110.88k, sitting just above the 110.7k trigger—expect some friction into 110.9–111.0k, then air pockets toward 111.4–112.1k if absorbed.

6. Pivots and levels of interest (classic, based on Oct 31)

• P ≈ 109.63k; R1 ≈ 110.96k; R2 ≈ 112.37k; S1 ≈ 108.22k; S2 ≈ 106.88k.
• Price currently above P, flirting with the R1 zone overhead; clean acceptance above R1 usually opens a path to R2 within a session in trending tapes.

7. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Tenkan (9‑period midpoint) ≈ 111.3k; Kijun (26‑period midpoint) likely above Tenkan due to prior highs in mid‑October. Price trades just below Tenkan—typical of early recovery. A reclaim/close above ~111.3k would strengthen the bullish case; for now, Tenkan acts as dynamic resistance and a tactical target.

8. Volume/participation

• Oct 10’s capitulation printed extreme volume; subsequent recoveries had declining volume until late October’s selloff pickup. The last three sessions show stabilization and balanced participation. On the intraday tape, the 16:00–20:00 UTC window showed increased prints as price pressed toward 110.5k—indicative of buyers willing to defend 110.2–110.3k and probe the lid.

9. Candles and patterns

• Oct 30: Long lower‑wick red candle (open 110.06k → low 106.38k → close 108.31k) signifies rejection of sub‑107k prices.
• Oct 31–Nov 1: Follow‑through stabilization with higher close—common sequence after a flush where a two‑step recovery targets the 0.5–0.618 retrace (111.4–112.1k) before encountering heavier supply.

10. Mean‑reversion and statistical context

• Z‑score vs 20‑day mean is mild positive (~+0.0 to +0.2), not stretched. This favors a continuation attempt rather than immediate reversion lower.
• Given ATR, a 1.6–1.8k advance from a breakout is statistically ordinary in current regime.

11. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈60%): Break and hold above 110.65–110.70k. Run into 110.9–111.0k friction, then extension to 111.4k. If momentum persists, tag 112.1–112.4k (fib 0.618 / pivot R2).
• Pullback case (≈30%): Failure at 110.55–110.70k leads to a drift back to 110.0–109.7k (prior intraday supports, daily pivot). Bulls defend; range persists 109.7–110.6k.
• Bear tail (≈10%): Macro risk or liquidity sweep beneath 109.7k triggers a fast test of 108.8–108.3k. This would negate the ascending triangle and delay upside by several sessions.

12. Trade plan and risk framework

• Bias: Buy strength, not chop—use a buy‑stop to capture the triangle breakout and fib/Pivot confluence expansion.
• Entry (buy‑stop): 110,700—above the 0.382 retrace (110.66k) and intraday lid to reduce false breaks.
• Primary target (TP): 112,300—into the 0.618/pivot R2 confluence band (112.12–112.37k), before heavier 114k supply.
• Optional interim: 111,390 (0.5 retrace) for partials/scale if managing actively.
• Invalidation (stop idea, not part of order spec): Below 110,050 (under round‑number shelf and hourly higher‑low cluster).
• Indicative R:R: Entry 110.70k; stop 110.05k (−650); TP 112.30k (+1,600) → R:R ≈ 2.4–2.5.
• What invalidates: Strong rejection wick above 110.9–111.0k with close back below 110.2k and increasing sell volume would cancel the breakout thesis and favor a range fade back to 109.7k or 108.8k.

Conclusion and 24h outlook

• With price nudging above the 20‑day mean, momentum turning up, and a well‑defined intraday coil under a fib/pivot cluster, the path of least resistance in the next day favors an upside break toward 111.4k first, then 112.1–112.4k. I prefer a conditional Buy (breakout) over a pre‑break fade given the constructive higher‑low base and supportive oscillator backdrop.