BTC poised for a Sunday-night fade: Sell the rip into $111k, target a $109k sweep

Timeframe and context

• Instrument: Bitcoin (BTC-USD)
• Current price (last print): ~$110,058.70
• Horizon: Next 24 hours
• Data used: Daily OHLCV from 2025-08-05 to 2025-11-02 and hourly bars for the last ~24–30 hours

Executive summary

• Structure: Post-October drawdown, BTC is carving a broad base between ~$106.5k and $114.5k. Short-term price is coiling in a tight hourly range ($109.9k–$111.1k) under descending daily resistance.
• Bias (24h): Slight downside skew. Expect mean-reversion chops with risk of a push toward $109.0k–$108.8k if $109.9k gives way. Upside capped near $111.1k–$112.0k unless strong momentum appears.
• Trade idea (tactical): Short rallies into resistance. Optimal entry near ~$110.9k–$111.1k with a take-profit around ~$109.05k; alternate momentum entry on a breakdown below ~$109.8k.

Step-by-step, multi-technique analysis

1. Trend and market structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily structure: From the 10/06 swing high ($126.2k) to 10/17 low ($106.47k), BTC made a sharp down leg. The rebound into 10/26 topped near $114.47k, then rolled over with a higher low on 10/30 ($108.31k). This forms a broad consolidation with lower swing highs (10/26 ~114.5k, 10/27 ~114.1k, 10/28 ~113.0k) and higher swing lows (10/17 ~106.47k, 10/30 ~108.31k) — effectively a compressing range/descending triangle-like behavior with a flat-ish support shelf clustered around $108–$110k.
• Hourly structure (last 24–30h): A tight box $109.9k–$111.15k. Micro lower highs after the 11:00 hour peak ($111.15k), fading back toward the mid-to-lower end of the box into the close. That suggests supply near the top of range.
• Conclusion: Medium-term trend is down-to-sideways; short-term is range-bound with mild bearish tilt under nearby resistance.

2. Moving averages and crossovers

• 5-day vs 10-day SMA: Approx 5D SMA ≈ $109.6k; 10D SMA ≈ $111.2k. 5D < 10D indicates near-term bearish momentum.
• 20-day SMA: Computed ≈ $110.18k. Price ~$110.06k sits marginally below the 20D mean — a neutral-to-slightly-bearish read, consistent with mean-reversion behavior around the midline.
• 50-day SMA (approx): Given prior highs in the $118–$126k region earlier in October and recent closes mostly $108–$115k, the 50D is likely above current price (est. low-$113k area), reinforcing a medium-term down bias.
• 200-day SMA: Not directly computable from the provided window; inference suggests it should be below current price given longer bull context, but this is not in the dataset and thus not used for signal.
• Read-through: Short-term averages roll under the intermediate average, positioning price below the 50D and very near the 20D — weakly bearish backdrop with risk of re-tests of support when rallies stall.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx): ~51.4. That’s neutral/slightly positive. After the mid-October selloff, RSI recovered from sub-40s into low-50s, but has stalled — consistent with a range where momentum is not dominant.
• Stochastics (qualitative): Likely mid-range given the RSI and price hugging the 20D mean; no strong overbought/oversold. This supports a fade-the-edges approach rather than chasing.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Given the downswing then basing, MACD line is likely below zero with histogram compressing toward flat. No strong thrust either way; any crossover would need fresh momentum—currently lacking.
• Read-through: Oscillators show equilibrium. In a range, price tends to respect local support/resistance. Slight edge to shorting resistance given the higher-timeframe downtrend.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~2.5–3.0k. Expect typical 24h travel bands around +/- $2–3k absent a shock.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): With 20D ≈ $110.18k and recent stdev approximated ~2.3–2.5k, bands are roughly $105.7k–$115.7k. Price near the middle band implies no edge from extremes; the band width is moderate, smaller than mid-October but not a true squeeze.
• Hourly realized range: Last day compact (~$1.2k peak-to-trough), indicating short-term compression — typical precursor to a directional push. Given repeated failures near ~$111.1k, odds skew to a downside test first.

5. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Daily volume: Spiked massively on 10/10 (selloff) and elevated into 10/11. Subsequent up-days had moderate volume; recent sessions show diminishing volume into this weekend — classic indecision/low-participation environment.
• OBV (qualitative): Post-10/10 damage, OBV has not materially reclaimed the lost ground. Recent sideways churning implies a flat-to-soft OBV, mildly bearish across the consolidation.
• Intraday volume shape: Heavier prints on pushes back down toward ~$110.0k suggest sellers defend upticks; the larger 20:00 bar coincided with a fade—a mild distribution cue.

6. Support, resistance, and levels

• Immediate resistance: $111.1k–$111.2k (intraday spike failure), then $112.95k–$113.2k (10/28 close to 9/29-10/10 shelf), then strong $114.1k–$114.5k (10/26-10/27 swing highs). Above that: $116.1k and $117k.
• Immediate support: $109.9k (hourly box floor) then $109.05k (9/25 close), $108.3k (10/31 low), and $106.47k (10/17 capitulation low). A clean break of $109.9k opens a path toward $109.05k–$108.3k.

7. Fibonacci analysis

• Swing used: 10/06 high ~$126,198 to 10/17 low ~$106,468 (range ~19,730).
• Retracements: 38.2% ≈ $114.0k, 50% ≈ $116.33k, 61.8% ≈ $118.66k. The rebound topped right at the 38.2% (~$114.47k) and failed — a classic bearish retrace ceiling.
• Implication: Failure at the 38.2% often precedes a re-test of the lower half of the range (sub-$110k) unless buyers quickly reclaim and hold above ~$114k.

8. Market profile / VWAP (intraday proxy)

• Intraday VWAP proxy: Skews around ~$110.4k (given heaviest volumes near $110.0–$110.7k and a notable heavy bar at $110.04k). Current price ($110.06k) sits just below/near the lower edge of value.
• Value area and POC (qualitative): Value centered roughly around $110.4–$110.6k with resistance at the upper distribution ~$110.9k–$111.1k.
• Read-through: Trading below VWAP bias is mildly bearish; rallies into VWAP/upper value are likely to be sold during low-liquidity weekends unless a catalyst appears.

9. Candlestick and pattern diagnostics

• Daily: 10/31 a small green body after red on 10/30 (not a strong reversal), 11/01 a small doji-like session, 11/02 shaping as another small candle. This series marks indecision at the 20D mean under a lower-high regime — often a continuation setup unless reversed by a wide-bodied expansion day.
• Hourly: Repeated rejections of the $110.9–$111.1k lid; small-bodied candles clustering; lower highs — all consistent with a slight drift lower through the range.

10. Channels and regression

• A short-term descending regression channel from 10/28–11/02 fits the lower-high sequence; price is near mid-to-lower channel into the close, increasing the odds of a probe lower toward the channel bottom (~$109.0k–$108.8k) before any rebound.

11. Risk events and seasonality context (qualitative)

• Weekend liquidity is thin, which magnifies whip risk but also often leads to range extension around the weekly open in Asia. Historically, first move Sunday night/Monday Asia can run stops on one edge; given supply capping ~$111.1k, the stop-run risk to the downside (through ~$109.9k) looks slightly higher.

12. Synthesis and 24h scenarios

• Base case (45–50%): Range-to-down drift. Price fades rallies into $110.8–$111.1k and rotates toward $109.9k; a break there targets $109.05k with possible wicks to $108.8k. Expect realized range ~1.5–2.5k.
• Bear extension (25–30%): If $109.9k breaks on momentum and liquidity is thin, acceleration toward $108.3k is feasible; deeper extension to $106.5k less likely in 24h but cannot be excluded if risk sentiment deteriorates.
• Bull surprise (20–25%): A clean reclaim and hold above $111.2k could squeeze to $112.9k–$113.2k; sustained acceptance above $114.0k would invalidate the short bias and flip the tape constructive.

Trade plan (tactical short)

• Rationale: Medium-term downtrend, failed 38.2% retracement at ~$114k, price pinned under a descending sequence of highs, oscillators neutral, and intraday VWAP above spot. Shorting into resistance advantages risk/reward in a choppy tape.
• Optimal entry: Sell a pop into ~$110.9k (within $110.85k–$111.1k supply). Alternate momentum entry: sell a breakdown below ~$109.8k if the bounce doesn’t materialize.
• Target (take-profit): First objective ~$109.05k (prior close cluster and pivot) aligns with a conservative capture before the deeper support at ~$108.3k.
• Invalidation/stop (risk control): Above ~$111.7k (clearance beyond intraday supply and local swing failure) to respect a potential upside squeeze toward $112.9k–$113.2k.
• Risk/Reward: Entry ~$110.9k, TP ~$109.05k, SL ~$111.7k yields roughly 1.9k reward vs ~0.8k risk (~2.4:1), suitable for a 24h tactical swing.

Prediction (next 24h)

• Expected range: ~$108.8k to ~$111.5k
• Path: Slightly more likely to see a rejection of $110.9k–$111.1k and a drift to $109.0k–$108.8k than a clean breakout through $111.2k. If $109.9k breaks early in Asia, $109.05k can print swiftly.

Risk notes

• Thin liquidity can produce false breaks; if shorting the breakdown, be disciplined with stops.
• A sudden macro/catalyst headline can overwhelm technicals. Size positions accordingly.

Bottom line

• Lean short for the next 24 hours. Best expression: sell the rip into ~$110.9k–$111.1k aiming for ~$109.05k. Breakdown alternative below ~$109.8k also valid.