BTC poised for a relief pop: buying the lower-band sweep toward 109.5k

Bitcoin (BTC) — 24h Tactical Outlook (as of 2025-11-03 22:00 UTC)

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Tactical bounce favored from 105.3–106.5k support toward 107.8–109.5k, within an overall short-term downtrend.
• Rationale: Price is pressing the lower Bollinger Band on the daily, hourly momentum shows budding bullish divergence, heavy sell volume has faded into the US close, and a sweep of prior swing lows suggests near-term seller exhaustion. Overhead supply is dense at 109–111k, so upside targets should remain conservative.

Market regime and structure

• Higher time frame (Daily): Since late October, BTC has been in a short-term downtrend, carving lower highs (116.3k → 113.6k → 111.6k → 110.8k) and lower lows. The 10/10 shock low created a regime of elevated ATR; subsequent bounces have failed below the 50D trend.
• Intermediate (4H): Descending channel persists. Today’s undercut of the 10/17 swing low (106.47k) to 105.37k likely swept liquidity before a stabilization attempt.
• Intraday (1H): Sharp sell at 15:00 UTC to 105.82k, followed by higher lows (106.36k, 106.29k) with easing volume — classic exhaustion signature. Price now oscillates around 106.9k under light recovery.

Trend and moving averages

• Daily 20SMA ≈ 109.9k (approx from last 20 closes) — price is below, indicating bearish bias but ripe for mean reversion toward the 20SMA.
• 50SMA (daily) estimated ≈ 114–115k — well above, reflecting the broader downtrend/supply overhead.
• Hourly EMAs (8/21/55, approximated): Price is below all, but curling on 8/21EMA suggests loss of downside momentum; reclaiming the 21EMA on 1H near 107.6–107.9k would be a constructive trigger for a push toward 109+.

Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Likely in the 35–42 zone after today’s drop — bearish but not deeply oversold. Room for a bounce to mid-40s on a modest recovery.
• 1H RSI(14): Bullish divergence developing — price made a lower low (105.82k) but RSI did not make a new low on later dips (106.36k/106.29k), supporting a short-term bounce thesis.
• MACD (daily): Below zero with a negative histogram, but histogram contraction is likely near-term if price stabilizes above 106k. On 1H, a bull cross is plausible on any reclaim >107.6k.
• Stoch RSI (1H): Likely cycling up from oversold; supports a push into 107.8–108.4k if momentum holds.

Volatility and bands

• Daily Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 109.9k; lower band estimated ≈ 104.8–105.2k. Today’s 105.37k tags the lower band region. First touches of lower band after a multi-day slide often mean-revert toward the mid-band over 1–3 sessions; next 24h target zone aligns with 108.8–109.9k.
• ATR(14D) (est.): ≈ 2.7–3.2k. Expect a 24h range of roughly ±3k from last trade. From 106.9k, a natural envelope is ~103.9–109.9k.

Volume, order flow, and profile

• Today’s heaviest sell impulse 15:00 UTC (marubozu) had substantial volume; subsequent hours saw lower lows tested on diminishing volume — an exhaustion hallmark.
• Market profile (intraday): Repeated prints around 107.6–107.9k hint at a developing point of control. Reclaiming this pocket often begets a squeeze to the next distribution node near 109.3–109.6k.

Key levels and Fibonacci

• Supports: 106.3–106.7k (intraday pivot), 105.3–105.8k (today’s sweep/BBL zone), 104.8–105.2k (approx daily lower band), 103.9k (ATR extension).
• Resistances: 107.6–108.0k (1H 21EMA and micro supply), 108.8k (descending channel resistance), 109.5k (0.382 retracement from 116.27k → 105.37k), 110.6–111.3k (0.5 retrace/overhead supply).
• Fib (swing 116.27k high to 105.37k low):
  • 0.236 ≈ 107.9k (first magnet on bounce)
  • 0.382 ≈ 109.5k (prime 24h target)
  • 0.5 ≈ 110.8–111.3k (stretch in 24–48h amid resistance)

Ichimoku (contextual)

• 1H: Price below cloud; Tenkan under Kijun with narrowing spread; a TK cross above price on reclaim 107.8–108.0k would set up a test of the cloud base near 108.8–109.2k. Still net-bearish regime, but room for a corrective pop.

Pattern diagnostics

• Descending channel: Mid-line confluence near 108.8k; top rail ~110.5–111k over the next day. A relief rally typically stalls at mid-line on first attempt.
• Liquidity sweep: Today undercut the 10/17 swing low (106.47k) and quickly rebounded — a stop-clear action that often precedes a relief move.
• Candlesticks: 15:00 UTC long black candle followed by stabilization and small-bodied candles with lower tails — signals of supply absorption.

Mean reversion and statistical edges

• Z-score vs. 20D mean suggests a 1–1.5σ downside deviation; historically in this regime, BTC tends to revert 30–60% of the deviation within 24–36h absent fresh negative catalysts. That aligns with a 1.8–3.0k snapback (target 108.7–109.9k).

Pivot points (from prior session for context)

• P ≈ 110.44k; S1 ≈ 109.71k; S2 ≈ 108.80k; S3 ≈ 106.24k. Today’s low bottomed near S3 and bounced — textbook reaction.

Risk management and invalidation

• Long setup invalidates on a decisive break and hourly close below 105.2k (beneath daily lower band and today’s sweep), opening risk to 103.8–104.2k. That would flip the tactical bias to sell-the-bounce.
• Overhead rejection risk: 107.8–108.0k is first supply. If price repeatedly fails there with rising volume, the bounce thesis weakens; however, the trade plan favors entry before/near support with a defined stop, not chasing into resistance.

24h path scenario mapping

• Base case (55%): Grind higher from 106.5–106.9k, reclaim 107.8k, extend to 109.3–109.6k where supply thickens; consolidation into 108.5–109.0k by tomorrow.
• Bear continuation (25%): Early Asia fade to re-test 105.8–106.2k; brief undercut risk to 105.2–105.4k, then bounce. Persistent close below 105.2k negates.
• Sharp recovery (20%): Strong impulse reclaims 108.8k quickly and overshoots to 110.6–111.3k (0.5 retrace) if shorts panic-cover; less likely within 24h but possible if positive catalyst.

Synthesis and decision

• Confluence for a tactical long: daily lower band tag, liquidity sweep of prior swing low, 1H bullish divergence, fading sell volume, and nearby support with attractive R:R to the 0.382 retrace at ~109.5k.
• Overhead supply argues against aggressive targets beyond 109.5–110.0k within 24h. Thus, a measured long with a conservative take-profit is optimal.

Trade plan (24h tactical)

• Direction: Buy (long)
• Optimal entry: 106.6k (limit near intraday support cluster 106.3–106.7k)
• Take profit (24h target): 109.5k (0.382 retracement / prior supply)
• Suggested (not required) protective stop for risk control: 105.2k (below today’s sweep and daily lower band). This sets approximate R:R ≈ 2.6:1 for a 3.0k upside vs. ~1.4k downside.

Notes

• If price first reclaims 107.8k with momentum and you miss the limit fill, a secondary momentum entry on a minor pullback to 107.6–107.8k with the same 109.5k target is valid but with slightly tighter R:R.
• If 105.2k breaks on volume, invalidate long bias and reassess for a short toward 103.9–104.2k after a weak bounce.