BTC loses 100k: bounce into resistance, then one more leg down

Executive summary

• Context: BTC just lost the 100k psychological handle intraday, closing the last hour at 99,939 (-6.2% vs yesterday’s close of ~106,548). The session printed a wide-range trend day lower with heavy late-day sell volume. The breakdown follows a month-long sequence of lower highs and lower lows from the October peak (~126,198 on Oct 6).
• Bias next 24h: Bearish with a bounce-and-fail setup favored. Expect a reflex rally into nearby resistance (100.7–101.5k, stretch to 102.2k) to be sold, then continuation toward 98–97k. Probability weights: 60% bearish continuation, 25% range-bound consolidation (98.8–101.8k), 15% sharp V-shape reclaim above 102.5k.
• Trade plan: Short on a weak bounce into 100.8–101.2k, target 97.4k. Invalidation for the idea on sustained reclaim >102.2–103.2k.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Weekly/daily trend: Lower high sequence from 126.2k (Oct 6) → 124.8k (Oct 6–7) → 123.5k (Oct 5) → 114.5k (Oct 29) → 110.8–111.6k cluster (Oct 31–Nov 2) followed by a decisive break of the 104–105k shelf today. Structure is firmly bearish.
• Daily market structure breaks (MSB): • Oct 30–31: Lost 110–111k, turning prior support into resistance. • Nov 4: Loss of 104–105k (multi-touch floor), then loss of 100k intraday—key psychological magnet turned resistance.
• Intraday (hourly): Persistent lower highs all day, with distribution into the close; no meaningful absorption observed near 100k—sellers in control.

2. Key support/resistance mapping

• Major resistance above: • 100k round number: Now initial resistance. First test already rejected; expect multiple rejections while below. • 100.7–101.5k: Prior intraday supply (19:00–21:00 UTC) and micro-liquidity pocket from failed bounces. • 102.1–102.4k: Classic Pivot S2 (≈102,121) and intraday 61.8% retrace zone from the late-day leg. • 103.2–104.4k: 50–61.8% retrace of today’s total range and yesterday’s classic pivot S1 (≈104,334). Heavy supply zone if reached.
• Supports below: • 99.1–99.3k: Today’s intraday low zone; already probed. • 98.5k: Round-number micro support and likely liquidity pocket. • 97.0–97.5k: Measured move target from broken 104–105k range (width ~5.5–6k → 98–99k initial, with extension to ~97k). Aligns with multi-tech confluence below.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (est.): High 20s to low 30s—oversold but consistent with trend. Oversold in downtrends often “stays oversold”; bounce risk exists but typically sold.
• RSI(14) hourly: Sub-30 for multiple hours, minor positive divergence attempts are weak and unconfirmed given heavy volume into the close.
• Stochastic (daily/hourly): Buried <20, reflecting momentum push; cross-ups may produce a reflex bounce, but signal quality is low while price remains under 100–101k.
• MACD (daily): Bearish below signal line, histogram expanding negative since mid-Oct; momentum acceleration consistent with breakdown day.
• DMI/ADX (daily): -DI above +DI with rising ADX (>25 typical) indicating trend-strengthening sell impulse.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily: Rising meaningfully (trend day lower). Today’s intraday high-low ≈ 8.1k; recent daily ranges 5–8k. Expanding ATR favors trend continuation and supports breakout/breakdown follow-through.
• Expectation next 24h: Wide range persists. Projected range 97.8–102.2k, with spikes possible to 96.8 or 102.8 on stop runs.

5. Moving averages

• SMA20 daily (est.): ≈111–113k; price is far below lower Bollinger band derived from this SMA (see next section). This gap indicates short-term stretch; however, location far below SMA20/50 confirms dominant downtrend.
• SMA50 daily (est.): ≈114–116k, overhead resistance.
• EMA9/EMA21 daily: Pointing down; price below both. Any rally into the 9/21-EMA stack (likely ~108–110k) is a sell in current regime (not expected to be reached in 24h).
• Hourly EMAs (9/21/50): All above price; bearish alignment and dynamic resistance.

6. Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels

• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Price is significantly outside the lower band (band likely ~105–106k). “Band walk” behavior is present—bearish but also flags short-term mean-reversion potential. First bounces often fade at or below the lower band re-entry (≈104–105k), which aligns with our mapped resistance.
• Keltner Channels: Price pierced the lower KC on expanding ATR—trend day signature. First touch back into the channel is typically sold.

7. Volume analytics

• Distribution: Multiple distribution days in the last 3 weeks culminating in today’s heavy late-session selling. Oct 10 also showed climactic volume; since then, bounces were sold.
• Intraday: 20:00–21:00 UTC hours posted the largest volumes of the day as price pushed below 100k—capitulation-like, but follow-through selling into the hourly close suggests still more supply.
• OBV (qualitative): Sloping lower through Oct into Nov; no bullish divergence at lows.

8. VWAP and anchored VWAPs

• Session VWAP (Nov 4) anchored at 00:00 around 106.4–106.7k: Price traded below VWAP most of the day; heavy-late volumes pull VWAP down but still above spot. Expect VWAP resistance ~101–103k on recalculation; aligns with our bounce-and-fail zone.
• Anchored VWAP from Oct 10 breakdown would sit well above current levels (>110k); longer-term sellers in control.

9. Fibonacci analysis

• Major swing: Oct 6 high 126,198 → today’s low ~99,134. Retracement levels from low upward: • 38.2% ≈ 109,477 • 50% ≈ 112,666 • 61.8% ≈ 115,859 These are far overhead—underscores the magnitude of drawdown and room for oversold bounces later, but unlikely in 24h.
• Today’s intraday swing 107,230 → 99,134: • 38.2% ≈ 102,223 • 50% ≈ 103,182 • 61.8% ≈ 104,141 Confluence with pivot S2 (~102,121) and S1 (~104,334) makes 102–104k a potent supply band. Our trade plan sells the first weak bounce well before that, prioritizing fill probability while respecting resistance density above.

10. Pivot points (classic) using Nov 3 H/L/C

• H 110,765; L 105,336; C 106,548 → Pivot P ≈ 107,549
• S1 ≈ 104,334; R1 ≈ 109,763; S2 ≈ 102,121; R2 ≈ 112,978
• Current price (≈99,940) is below S2—a statistically stretched zone prone to mean-reversion bounces toward S2, then likely rejection while trend remains down.

11. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price below cloud; cloud is thick above (bearish). Tenkan < Kijun and both above price; Kijun near ~110k and acts as magnet only once bearish leg exhausts—unlikely to be reached near term. Lagging span below price and cloud—full bearish alignment.

12. Market profile / liquidity and order flow (qualitative)

• Liquidity sweep below 100k triggered stops; initial bounce attempts were weak. Expect additional stop clusters below 99k and ~98k. Overhead resting liquidity likely stacked around 100–101k and again 102–103k; first test into these zones typically meets passive sellers.

13. Pattern work

• Head-and-Shoulders (daily, broad): Left shoulder ~114–116k (Sep), Head ~126k (Oct 6), Right shoulder ~115–116k (mid-late Oct). Neckline 110–111k broke Oct 30 with measured move into ~104–105k achieved; extension from the 104–105k shelf break projects toward ~98–97k—our target cluster.
• Descending channel (Oct → Nov): Today’s drop tagged/pierced the lower boundary; brief reversion back inside the channel is probable before trend continuation.

14. Elliott wave (heuristic)

• From the late-Oct lower high (~114.5k), a five-wave decline count fits with today’s extension as Wave 3/5 or 5/5. If today was 3/5, a modest Wave 4 bounce (to 101–103k) is typical, followed by Wave 5 into 97–98k. If today already completed 5/5, an ABC corrective bounce could be larger, but volume/close suggest one more push lower is more likely first.

15. Cross-checks and confluence

• Confluence for short: • Regime: Bearish MTF trend, lower highs/lows, ADX rising. • Breakdown of major supports (111k, then 104–105k, then 100k) with strong volume. • Fibonacci intraday retracements cluster resistance at 102–104k; pivots S2/S1 line up with that. • VWAP resistance overhead; EMAs stacked bearishly on hourly. • Measured move targets 98–97k—consistent with liquidity under 99k.
• Counterpoint (bounce risk): Deep deviation below daily lower Bollinger can mean revert to 101–103k; hence strategy is to sell into strength rather than chase lows.

16. 24-hour path forecast

• Asia open (next 6–10h): Dead-cat bounce attempt into 100.7–101.5k; if momentum stalls there, look for rollover.
• Europe: Retest 100k from below; failure likely leads to a push toward 98.8–98.0k.
• US session: If 98s trade and no strong absorption appears, extension to 97.2–96.8k is possible; if absorption emerges, range consolidates 98.5–100.5k.
• Expected high/low: High 101.8–102.2k (stretch 103.2k if squeeze), Low 97.0–97.8k. Likely close near 98.5–99.2k.

17. Risk management and invalidation (for context)

• Invalidation for shorts: Sustained reclaim above 102.2k (Fibo 38.2% intraday) risks a squeeze toward 103.2–104.1k; above 104.5k the idea is wrong on the day timeframe. While not part of the required fields, a prudent stop would sit 102.3–102.6k for a tactical entry at 100.9–101.2k.

Final synthesis and action

• The weight of evidence favors selling a reflex rally. Structural breaks, momentum, volume, and confluence of resistances above spot point to a bounce-and-fail into 100.8–101.5k, then continuation toward 98–97k within 24h. Take-profit set into the 97.4k node aligns with measured move and anticipated liquidity.