BTC stalls beneath 104k after a violent rebound — set up to sell the rip toward 102k

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Sell the rip. Expect a fade from 104.3–104.9k toward 102.1–101.2k, with risk of an overshoot to ~100.9k if momentum turns.
• Rationale: Dominant daily downtrend, price below multi-MAs and Ichimoku cloud, negative MACD, lower-highs market structure, and a pivot/S-R cluster around 104.2–105.3k. Today’s sharp liquidation rebound (99k → 104.5k) has retraced to the upper part of the intraday range and is stalling under resistance with waning momentum.
• Strategy: Short on strength into 104.3k (prior intraday S1 flip + hourly supply) with take-profit near 101.8k (just above daily S2 cluster). Optional protective stop ~105.6–105.9k above hourly supply.

Step-by-step, multi-tool analysis (as exhaustive as possible)

1. Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Daily structure (Aug → Nov): After peaking near 126k (10/6) and failing to reclaim 125.6k (10/5), BTC rolled into a sequence of lower highs/lower lows. Key legs: • 10/10 shock: Massive drop to 104.6k low, close 113.2k, long lower wick. Subsequent rallies capped in 114–116k area (10/26 close 114.47k, 10/27 114.12k) failed to break prior supply. • Late-Oct → early-Nov: Lower highs (10/28 112.96k, 10/31 109.56k, 11/2 110.64k) and lower lows (11/3 106.55k). Today’s intraday spike printed 99.0k then rebounded, but the daily downtrend remains intact.
• 4H/1H: 11/5 intraday formed a V-reversal off 99.0k, trending higher into 104.3–104.5k, then plateaued and slipped to ~103.7k. This creates a near-term ascending intraday structure but underneath higher timeframe resistance. Likely outcome: mean-reversion bounce into resistance followed by continuation lower with the daily trend.
• Conclusion: Higher timeframe (daily) trend is down; intraday is corrective/mean-reversion. In downtrends, rallies to resistance are typically sold.

2. Moving averages (trend confirmation)

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~109.9k (computed from last 20 daily closes). Price at 103.7k is ~5.2–6.2k below the 20SMA; bearish and near/beyond lower Bollinger.
• 50-day SMA (est): ~113–114k (given Sep–Oct price regime). Price well below; entrenched bearish momentum.
• 200-day SMA (rough est): likely ~109–111k given Aug–Oct prints; price below this too → bearish regime.
• Slope: 20SMA rolling down, 50SMA rolling down. Bearish alignment (price < 20 < 50).

3. Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

• Basis ~109.9k; lower band estimated ~103–104k on heightened volatility. Current price sits around the lower band. In a downtrend, touching lower band can produce short-lived bounces, but sustained closes below basis and repeated lower-band tags bias continuation.
• Implication: Mean-reversion intraday is possible but risk skews to further downside as long as price remains under the basis and fails at mid-band pullbacks.

4. RSI (momentum)

• Daily RSI (approx): low-to-mid 30s after the slide from 114–111k to 106k and today’s sub-100k flush. Not extreme capitulation, but weak. No confirmed bullish divergence on the daily close yet (today still open for daily bar). Prior higher low in RSI hasn’t formed decisively.
• 1H RSI: Bounced to mid-50s during 99k→104.5k rally; has rolled over toward 50 with price stalling below resistance—shows waning intraday momentum.
• Interpretation: Momentum insufficient to power through layered 104.3–105.3k resistance unless new catalyst arrives; favors selling rallies.

5. MACD (trend/momentum)

• Daily: MACD below signal, negative histogram for weeks post-10/10 shock. Minor contractions on brief bounces failed to flip. Momentum remains bearish.
• 1H: MACD positive during the rebound but flattening/rolling as price stalls near 104.1–104.5k. A roll + bear cross at resistance would confirm downside timing.

6. Stochastic oscillators

• Daily Stoch: Hovering near oversold but without a convincing cross up through the signal. This can stay oversold in downtrends.
• Intraday (1H/4H): Recently cycled up; now curling from overbought → neutral. Short setups align when Stoch turns down at resistance in a bearish regime.

7. ATR and volatility context

• Daily ATR (est.): ~4.5–5.5k post-10/10 event. Today’s intraday true range (99.0k→104.5k ~5.5k) matches elevated ATR. Elevated ATR supports wider intraday swings and validates setting targets a few thousand dollars apart.
• Implication: 24h moves of ±2–4k are plausible; a 2.5k target is reasonable.

8. Ichimoku (daily)

• Price below cloud; Tenkan (~9-period midpoint) and Kijun (~26-period midpoint) estimated ~110–115k. Chikou likely below price. Full bearish state (price below Tenkan/Kijun/cloud). Rallies to Tenkan/Kijun rejections are typical; current price far below—bearish pressure dominant.

9. Fibonacci mapping

• Intraday 11/5: Low 99,009 → high 104,526 (range 5,517). • 38.2%: ~101,116; 61.8%: ~102,419; 78.6%: ~103,348; 86.4%: ~103,776. Current ~103,702 sits near 86% retracement zone—frequent stall area before retesting the swing high or rolling over. Failure under 104.5k favors a drop toward 102.4k/101.1k.
• Swing (10/26 114,472 → 11/3 106,548): • 0.382: ~109.6k; 0.618: ~111.5k (both failed to hold late Oct). Structure argues for continuation until a stronger base forms.
• Conclusion: On the intraday bounce, price is in the upper retracement band (78.6–88.6%), a common sell zone in a larger downtrend.

10. Horizontal support/resistance map

• Nearby resistance: 104.1–104.5k (hourly supply and session highs), 105.0–105.3k (prior breakdown area), 106.3–106.6k (10/17 close/10/30 pivot), 108.3k (10/30 close), 109.5–110.1k (dense daily supply).
• Nearby support: 103.1–103.3k (micro shelf), 102.1–102.4k (daily S2 cluster and fib 61.8 of the intraday range), 101.1k (fib 38.2 and psychological shelf), 100.0k (major psychological), 99.0k (today’s liquidation low).
• Price is pinned between a strong intraday resistance band (104.1–104.5k) and layered supports (102.1–101.1k). With the higher timeframe bearish, expect a test lower.

11. Classical pivots (using 11/03 D: H=110,765; L=105,336; C=106,548)

• Pivot P ≈ 107,550
• R1 ≈ 109,764; R2 ≈ 112,979
• S1 ≈ 104,335; S2 ≈ 102,121
• Behavior: Price rejected below S1 (104,335) multiple times today; currently trading under S1, turning it into resistance. That supports a sell-the-bounce plan into 104.3k. S2 around 102.1k is a logical first target; front-run at ~101.8k.

12. Candlestick reads

• Daily 10/10: Giant lower wick (capitulation-like) but failed to trend higher sustainably; subsequent lower highs mark distribution.
• 11/5 hourly: Long lower tail to 99.0k, swift recovery (short-covering), then doji/indecision between 104.5k high and ~103.6–103.9k closes. Indecision below resistance is typically bearish continuation if no follow-through breaks occur.

13. Volume and OBV heuristics

• Daily volumes elevated on down legs (10/10, 10/21, 10/30, 11/3) and lighter on bounces—distribution signature. OBV would be trending down.
• Intraday today: Peak interest around the low/recovery. As price approached 104.3–104.5k, participation waned and price stalled—supply present.

14. VWAP and mean reversion (intraday)

• Approximate session VWAP near 103.9–104.0k (given time spent and prices). Current ~103.7k is flirting just below. Failure to reclaim and hold above anchored VWAP suggests sellers remain in control into the close and next Asia open.

15. Elliott wave framing (heuristic)

• From 10/1–10/10: impulsive down wave; 10/10–10/26: corrective up wave; 10/26–11/3: another impulsive down. 11/5’s 99k flush could be wave iii capitulation of a lesser degree, with a wave iv intraday retrace stalling under 104.5–105.3k, setting up wave v toward 101–100k. This aligns with the sell-the-rip plan.

16. Regression channel / trendlines

• A descending regression channel from late-Oct highs contains price; upper boundary projects ~105–106k in the next sessions; midline under 104k. Price is below midline → bearish skew.

17. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Rally attempt toward 104.3–104.9k fails; price rolls to 102.4k then 101.8k. Consolidation 101.5–103.0k into the next day.
• Bull case (25%): Clean break and hold above 104.9–105.3k, squeezing to 106.3–106.8k (upper channel). Would require rising momentum and stronger participation. Still likely to meet sell interest near 106.5k.
• Bear acceleration (20%): Loss of 102.1k triggers a swift slide to 100.9k/100.0k; a stop-run probe to 99.8–99.0k cannot be ruled out if liquidity is thin.

18. Trade plan synthesis

• Edge: Confluence of daily downtrend, resistance flip at S1 (104.3k), intraday fib sell zone (78.6–88.6%), VWAP rejection risk, and momentum roll.
• Entry: Short on a bounce to 104,300 (limit sell into prior S1 flip and local supply). If not filled and market breaks first, consider chasing only on a confirmed 1H close below 103.2k with fresh momentum (not part of the one-price output here, but noted).
• Take profit: 101,800 (front-run S2 cluster ~102.1k and fib confluence ~101.1–102.4k). Leaves room for further downside while respecting typical ATR.
• Risk control (informational): Protective stop 105,600–105,900 (above hourly supply and round 105.5–106k breakdown area). R:R from 104.3k→101.8k vs. stop ~105.7k is approx 2.5k reward vs. 1.3–1.6k risk ≈ 1.6–1.9R.

19. Why not long here?

• While price is near lower Bollinger and could bounce, the bounce already retraced to an intraday sell zone and stalled under a hardened resistance shelf. With higher-timeframe trend down and failed reclaim of S1/VWAP, odds favor a fade rather than initiating a countertrend long.

20. Risk notes

• Elevated volatility and wick risk (99k print today) imply slippage risk. Position sizing and disciplined stops are essential. If 105.3–105.9k is reclaimed and held, the short thesis weakens and a neutral-to-long bias toward 106.5–108.3k would be considered.

Bottom line

• Sell the rip into 104.3k with a target around 101.8k over the next 24 hours. Probability-weighted expectation: a drift lower within the prevailing daily downtrend after a fading intraday retracement.

Disclaimer: This is market analysis, not individualized financial advice. Crypto is volatile; manage risk accordingly.