BTC: Sell the Bounce into 102.2k — Targeting a 100.2k Retest Within 24 Hours

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bearish with a sell-the-bounce setup favored. Expect a counter-trend pop into 102.0–102.6k to be sold, followed by a drift/retest of 100.3–99.8k. Probability-weighted path: 60% retest of 100k; 35% brief break of 100k toward ~99.2k; 20% squeeze above ~103.5k.
• Plan: Short into strength near 102.2k with tight risk. First profit zone 100.2k; extension 99.2k if momentum accelerates.

1. Multi-timeframe market structure

• Daily structure (from Aug → Nov): Lower highs since early Oct (126k → 123k → 122k → 116k) and lower lows (106.5k → 101.6k → 99.0k intraday). The series confirms a primary downtrend.
• Weekly context (implied by the last ~3 months): A topping process above 120–126k followed by distribution and decisive momentum breaks (Oct 10 and Nov 4). Trend remains down until at least a weekly higher low and a break of a prior swing high.
• Intraday (hourly, Nov 6): Price steadily slipped from ~104.1k early session to ~100.8k lows, then mild bounce to ~101.7k. Rallies have been shallow and sold (lower highs ~103.7 → 102.2 → 101.9). This is classic bear-channel behavior.

2. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI behavior (conceptual, hourly): RSI failed to sustain above the 50 midline on bounces and printed lower highs—bearish momentum regime. Expect mean-reversion bounces to stall beneath the 50–55 RSI zone intraday unless a squeeze occurs.
• MACD (conceptual): Below zero on daily and hourly with frequent bear crossovers intraday; momentum rallies have lacked follow-through—consistent with trend continuation lower.
• Stochastic (conceptual): Oscillating in lower ranges intraday, resetting on small bounces—bearish until a decisive reclaim.

3. Moving averages and slope analysis

• Short/medium-term MAs (20–50 day proxies): Price trades below both and the slopes are negative given the sustained sequence of lower highs/lows from mid-October onward. Being below declining short/medium MAs maintains a sell-the-rally tactical bias.
• Intraday MAs (e.g., 20/50/200-hour proxies): Price has been hugging/below the shorter MAs most of the session; rallies to or just above the 20/50h have been rejected. This keeps any bounce suspect.

4. Volatility and ranges

• Recent realized intraday range (Nov 6): ~3.5–4.0k from early-session high (~104.1k) to low (~100.3k). A 24h ATR proxy of ~2.0–3.0k is reasonable here.
• Implication: A strategy targeting ~1.8–2.2k of movement has a good chance of completion within 24 hours, provided entries are taken at edges.

5. Bollinger Bands (conceptual)

• Daily: Price pressed the lower band on Nov 4’s washout (low ~98.96k), bounced toward the mid-band, and rolled back over. Sitting near/just above the lower band favors a tag/retest on further weakness.
• Intraday: Riding the lower band most of the day with only brief excursions toward the mid-band—typical of trend days.

6. Ichimoku (conceptual)

• Daily: Price sits below the cloud with Tenkan < Kijun < Cloud and price under both—full bearish alignment.
• Hourly: Price below cloud, and each attempt to reclaim the cloud top gets rejected—bearish continuation until a cloud flip.

7. Volume, participation, and supply/demand

• High-volume breaks: Oct 10 and Nov 4 saw very large volume breakdowns—capitulation-like but with subsequent weak rebounds. This often indicates trapped longs and remaining overhead supply.
• Nov 6 intraday: Heavier activity on down legs than on up legs (notably 15:00–21:00 UTC hours), suggesting supply overwhelms demand into bounces.
• Volume nodes: 102–103k has seen frequent trade today; 100–101k is a psychological magnet. A clean break under 100k likely taps liquidity between 99.6–99.0k before meeting stronger bids.

8. Fibonacci mapping (key confluences)

• Swing A (Nov 2 high 110.64k → Nov 4 low 98.96k):
  • 38.2% retrace ≈ 103.42k: Bounces have repeatedly stalled sub/near 103.4–104.1k—bearish.
  • 23.6% retrace ≈ 101.59k: Price oscillates around this shallow retrace, showing buyers only managing weak retracements.
• Swing B (Oct 26 high 115.26k → Nov 4 low 98.96k):
  • 23.6% ≈ 102.8k aligns with intraday supply.
  • 38.2% ≈ 105.2k and 50% ≈ 107.1k remain well above current price and unlikely in next 24h without a squeeze.

9. Classical pivots (based on Nov 4 OHLC)

• Pivot P ≈ 102.61k; R1 ≈ 106.25k; S1 ≈ 97.95k; R2 ≈ 110.91k; S2 ≈ 94.30k.
• Current price (~101.13k) is below P and well below R1—bearish intraday bias while under 102.6k.

10. Support/resistance map (precision levels to trade)

• Resistance:
  • 101.9–102.2k: Intraday supply zone (multiple rejections at 17:00–19:00 UTC and earlier high ~102.23k).
  • 103.4–104.1k: Stronger supply (aligns with 38.2% retrace and session high ~104.15k).
  • 106.0–106.5k: Former breakdown base; unlikely in 24h unless squeeze.
• Support:
  • 100.8–100.3k: Today’s lower cluster; first demand band.
  • 100.0k: Major psychological level with likely stop-liquidity underneath.
  • 99.6–99.0k: Next magnetic zone on a clean break of 100k (includes Nov 4 low 98.96k).

11. Candlestick/price action cues

• Daily post-washout (Nov 4): Long lower wick but no strong follow-through; such “hammer attempts” failing to reclaim key MA/levels often precede another probe of the lows.
• Hourly today: Multiple upper wicks around 101.9–102.2k and a series of heavy-bodied down candles during US hours—seller control on rallies.

12. VWAP and mean-reversion context (intraday, conceptual)

• Price traded mostly below intraday VWAP for extended stretches, with bounces stalling near VWAP/mid-BB. This keeps the bias to fade into VWAP tests rather than chase breakouts.

13. Order-blocks/liquidity

• Visible liquidity/supply sits near 102.0–102.6k (repeated rejection zone). Expect resting offers/stop orders here.
• Sub-100k resides a large pool of stops/triggered liquidations—if tapped, acceleration into 99.6–99.0k is plausible.

14. Risk scenarios and probabilities (24h)

• Base case (≈60%): Pop to 102.0–102.6k on mean reversion, then roll over to 100.3k test; potential brief undercut to 99.8–99.2k before closing back near 100.5–101.0k.
• Bear extension (≈35%): Weak bounce that fails below 101.8k, swift break of 100k with momentum into 99.2k, possibly probing 98.9k, then a reflex bounce.
• Bull squeeze (≈20%): Reclaim 102.6k pivot, squeeze to 103.4–104.1k; if bears fail to fade that, extension to 105k becomes possible, but odds are lower absent catalyst.

15. Strategy synthesis: Why Sell-the-bounce is preferred

• Trend alignment: Daily and hourly trends are down with momentum confirming.
• Location: Price below daily pivot and under important retracement thresholds (23.6–38.2%); rallies repeatedly fail at the same zones.
• Volatility: Enough intraday range to harvest ~2k points with defined risk.
• Confluence: 102.0–102.6k = intraday supply + shallow fib + below pivot—good asymmetry for entries.

16. Trade plan (tactical specifics)

• Instrument: BTC spot or perpetual futures.
• Direction: Short on strength.
• Primary entry (limit): 102,200.
• Protective stop (discipline): 103,400 (above 38.2% retrace confluence and yesterday’s supply shelf; also above repeated intraday highs near 103.2–103.5k).
• First target (take profit): 100,200 (front-run psychological 100k and today’s lower cluster 100.3k).
• Optional runner: If 100k snaps, trail for 99,200 extension; take partials at 100,200 then let 25–33% ride with tight trailing stop above 100.9k.
• Risk/Reward (primary leg): Entry 102.2k, Stop 103.4k (−1.2k), Target 100.2k (+2.0k) → RR ≈ 1:1.67.
• Position sizing: Size so that 1.2% move equals defined risk budget (e.g., 0.5–1.0% of account per trade).

17. Invalidation and flip conditions

• Invalidate short bias if: Hourly close above 103.4k followed by acceptance above 103.5–103.7k; that opens path to 104.6–105.2k. If that occurs, reassess for a potential tactical long on a pullback to 103.5–103.7k with targets 104.6–105.2k.

18. What would change the 24h forecast

• A high-volume reclaim of 102.6k pivot with sustained trade above 103.4k.
• A macro/catalyst-driven bid (e.g., unexpected policy headlines) pushing BTC through 104k on rising volume.
• Conversely, a sharp liquidity vacuum below 100k could accelerate directly to 98.9–98.5k before any bounce.

Key levels recap (actionable)

• Resistance: 101.9–102.2k; 103.4–104.1k; 106.0–106.5k.
• Pivot: 102.6k (bearish while below).
• Support: 100.8–100.3k; 100k; 99.6–99.0k; 98.96k.

24h price path projection

• Most likely path: Drift/bounce to ~102.2k → fade → 100.4–100.2k test → liquidity run sub-100k possible → quick rebound to ~100.8–101.2k.

Decision rationale

• With trend, momentum, and key levels aligned, the higher expectancy trade is shorting into 102.2k with a 100.2k target in the next 24 hours. The planned stop is just above the confluence band that would invalidate the immediate bearish setup.

Risk notes

• If price fails to bounce to the entry, consider a contingency add: partial short on a weak retest of 101.8–101.9k with proportionally tighter stop (e.g., 103.0k) to preserve RR. Avoid chasing breakdowns under 100.5k unless using a separate plan with 99.2k target and 100.9k stop.