BTC coils under 103k: volatility squeeze likely to sweep 100k before a reflex bounce

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical audit (BTCUSD)

Context snapshot

• Instrument: Bitcoin (BTC)
• Timestamp (data end): 2025-11-08 21:58 UTC
• Last: 102,264.29
• Recent daily context: Peak near 126k (early Oct), sharp break 10 Oct, persistent lower-high/lower-low drift through early Nov with a capitulative push to 98,962 on 4 Nov, followed by a lethargic bounce/consolidation in the 101–104k band.
• Intraday (Nov 8): Tight grind, marginally bearish bias; low 101,463, rebound to ~102.3k, compressing volatility.

1. Price structure and trend

• Higher time frame structure (Daily): Clear downtrend from early Oct highs. Lower highs: ~125.6k (Oct 6) → 122.3k (Oct 9) → 116.8k (mid-Oct) → 114–115k (late Oct) → 110–111k (early Nov). Lower lows culminating in the 98,962 (Nov 4) print.
• Market structure pivot zones: • Resistance stack: 103.4–104.1k (Nov 7–8 hourly highs), 106.5–107k (Oct 17 close, Oct 30 close), 109.0–110.1k (value shelf, psychological), 112.6–113.3k (late Sep/early Oct pivots), 115–116k (late Oct/early Sep supply). • Support stack: 101.5k intraday (Nov 8), 100.3–100.4k (Nov 6 low), 100k round-figure, 98.96–99.0k (Nov 4 capitulation low).
• Short-term structure (Hourly): Converging range with slightly rising lows since Nov 4 (100.34 → 101.46) but lower local highs (104.05 → 103.37 → ~102.8). This sketches a symmetrical triangle near the bottom of a downtrend (continuation risk), overlapping with a bear flag/pennant look.

2. Moving averages (trend filters)

• 20-day SMA (est.): ~108–109k. Price trading well below → bearish.
• 50-day SMA (est.): ~114–116k. 20 < 50 (bearish alignment), price below both → HTF trend down.
• 9/20 EMA slope (inferred): Both downward-sloping; price lodged below → confirms negative momentum regime.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI (14) inference: Low-to-mid 30s after Nov 4 low; marginal recovery likely toward high-30s/low-40s with the recent 101–104k consolidation. Still below 50 → bearish regime with room for mean reversion bounces, but momentum not yet reclaimed.
• Hourly RSI: Gravitation around 40–50 during Nov 8 session; no strong bullish divergence. Momentum neutral/slightly negative.
• Stochastic (Daily) inference: Coming off oversold but not decisively crossed up; risk of “stuck in oversold regime” behavior in persistent downtrends.

4. MACD

• Daily MACD below zero with histogram wobbling less negative post-Nov 4 → bear momentum easing but not reversed. Typical of a pause/flag after a thrust down.
• Hourly MACD meanders around flatline; no clean bullish impulse signal as of the last prints.

5. Volatility and ranges

• Recent daily true ranges clustered ~3–6k, with a blowout range on Nov 4. 14D ATR estimate: ~4.8–5.5k. This suggests the next 24 hours can plausibly span ~4–5k peak-to-trough.
• Bollinger Bands (Daily): Expanded from the selloff; price inside but below the middle band, indicating a bearish volatility regime with mean reversion headroom up to ~105–108k, but with trend resistance overhead.
• Bollinger (Hourly): Compression (“squeeze”) formed on Nov 8 around 102k. Expect volatility expansion in the next 12–24 hours.

6. Ichimoku

• Daily: Price below Kumo, Tenkan below Kijun, and Lagging Span below price → bearish stack. Kijun likely ~108–110k acting as gravity cap.
• Hourly: Price below cloud; thin forward cloud but still resistance; no bullish edge until a firm reclaim above ~103.5–104k on sustained basis.

7. Fibonacci context

• Swing measured: High 126,198 (Oct 6) to Low 98,962 (Nov 4). Retracements from the low: • 23.6% ≈ 105,394 • 38.2% ≈ 109,366 • 50% ≈ 112,580 • 61.8% ≈ 115,794
• Post-low price has failed to even hold 23.6% (105.4k). Remaining capped below shallow retracement suggests a weak rebound within a broader downtrend.

8. Volume/participation

• Massive sell volume on Oct 10 and Nov 4. Subsequent bounce/consolidation on lighter volume → classic weak-handed rebound/short-cover dynamic rather than initiative buying.
• Nov 8 intraday volumes subdued, with a few upticks; no evidence of aggressive bids lifting through resistance.

9. VWAP and session references

• Nov 8 session VWAP approximates ~102.1–102.3k. Last price oscillates around/just above VWAP → neutral micro-bias. Rejections into 103–103.4k intraday align with prior supply.

10. Market profile/value areas (qualitative read)

• Visible high-volume node around 102–104k from the last three sessions; acceptance building here. Value area high ~103.8–104.1k; value area low ~101.5–101.8k. A break from this acceptance zone likely drives to next liquidity pocket: below toward 100–99k, above toward 106–107k. Given HTF downtrend, downside exploration has higher probability.

11. Candlestick anatomy

• Daily bars since Nov 5: small-bodied, upper-wick rejections when probing 103–104k, and buyers defending 101–101.5k. Indecision within a bearish context → continuation risk outweighs reversal odds until resistance is reclaimed.

12. Pattern synthesis

• Symmetrical triangle/bear pennant forming at the lower half of a down-leg is typically a continuation setup. Measured move potential uses the flagpole (approx 106.5k → 99k ≈ 7.5k). A conservative expansion would target 100k first, with possibility to probe 99k if momentum ignites.

13. Regression channel and mean reversion

• A linear regression from Oct highs still slopes down. Price sits at/below the lower half of the channel; mean reversion could lift price to 103.5–104.5k, but the channel ceiling and MA cluster overhead present strong headwinds.

14. Keltner Channels (inferred)

• Daily close remains below middle Keltner (EMA20) and near lower band after the Nov 4 thrust. Staying sub-midline indicates trend persistence; tests of lower band (100–101k region) are common in such states.

15. Liquidity/stop dynamics

• Clear stop pools: below 101k (today’s and recent session lows), the 100k round number, and Nov 4 low (98.96k). On the upside, stops likely above 103.4k and 104.1k. In downtrends, markets often sweep downside liquidity first; a 100k sweep scenario is attractive for larger players.

16. Weekend microstructure

• It’s Saturday. Typically thinner books, higher wick probability. This supports the scenario of a stop-run (100k sweep) followed by a reflexive bounce, but net bias still down unless 103.8–104.1k is reclaimed.

17. Risk framing and scenarios (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55–60%): Downside probe. Break 101.5k → 100.8k → sweep 100.0–99.8k liquidity, then reflex bounce to 101.8–102.5k by end of window. Net 24h print near flat-to-slightly-lower but intraday delivers 2–3% downside excursion.
• Alternate 1 (30–35%): Brief squeeze above 102.8–103.4k into 103.8–104.1k, failing under resistance; sellers reassert and drive back to 101.8–102.2k close.
• Alternate 2 (10–15%): Full upside reversal. Strong reclaim and hold above 104.1k hourly closes, driving toward 105.4k (23.6% fib) and potentially 106.5–107k if momentum accelerates. This would invalidate the short thesis.

18. Synthesis and trade bias

• HTF downtrend, sub-20/50 SMA, sub-cloud, weak bounce participation, and a consolidation that resembles a bear flag all tilt probabilities toward a downside liquidity sweep within the next day. While microstructure could allow a pop, using that pop to position short into overhead supply offers better asymmetry than chasing lows into 100k.
• Strategy: Fade into 103.0–103.4k with a short, target the 100.2–100.6k zone where high-probability responsive bids should appear. Invalidation for the thesis sits above 104.1–104.5k on sustained basis (not part of output fields but critical for risk control).

19. Price prediction (24h)

• Expected range: 99.8k – 103.9k.
• Path: Early probe lower after a possible minor uptick; highest odds of a 100k sweep, then bounce. End-of-window near 101.8–102.5k.

Decision

• Direction: Sell (Short Position).
• Rationale: Dominant bearish regime, resistance overhead at 103–104k, weak rebound structure, and impending volatility expansion from an hourly squeeze favor a downside liquidity sweep scenario. Shorting into a push toward 103k aligns with both trend and microstructure.

Risk notes

• If price reclaims and holds above 104.1k on hourly/daily basis, the short thesis degrades; flip risk to neutral or consider reversal toward 105.4k/106.5k.
• Volatility is elevated; size accordingly. Not financial advice; for educational purposes.