BTC’s First Relief Pop After Capitulation: Eyeing a 105.4 Break and a Push Toward 106.9–107.5 in 24 Hours

BTC USD – Multi-timeframe, multi-indicator walkthrough (next 24h focus)

Summary view

• Market state: After a heavy October-to-early-November drawdown and a capitulation-like flush to ~98,962 (Nov 4 intraday), BTC has carved a higher-low ladder on the hourly and is attempting a first bounce leg within a larger daily downtrend. Current price 104,373.625 sits just beneath a dense resistance band around 104,900–105,400 (psychological 105k + 23.6% Fibonacci retrace of the 126,198 → 98,962 downswing).
• Base case for next 24h: A constructive pullback-and-go scenario that tests 103.6–104.0 and then challenges 105.4; a clean push through opens 106.5–107.5. Downside risk is a fade back toward 102.0–101.5 if 105.4 rejects. Net bias: Mildly bullish for a relief pop within a broader corrective regime.

1. Structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: Lower highs/lower lows since early October (peak momentum Oct 3–6 at ~122–126k). The Oct 10 breakdown (121.7k → 113.2k close on record volume) reset the structure; subsequent bounces have been sold. However, the Nov 4 spike-low to ~98,962 and quick reclaim above 101k created a potential exhaustion low.
• Hourly trend: Since Nov 8/9, price has printed successive higher lows: ~101.47 → 103.35 → 104.19, with higher highs culminating at 104.99. This micro uptrend sits inside the daily downtrend – a classic relief rally phase.
• Key horizontal levels from the daily tape:
  • Major support: 100,000 (psychological), 98,962 (Nov 4 low). Secondary supports: 101,300 (Nov 6 close), 101,600 (intraday pivot 11/9), 103,350–103,400 (hourly swing low 16:00Z).
  • Near-term resistance: 104,990–105,400 (hourly high + 23.6% Fib), 106,400–106,800 (former daily support/resistance zone around mid-Oct closes), 108,300–109,600 (Oct 30–31 cluster), 110,000–111,000 (round + daily closes cluster).

2. Fibonacci mapping (swing 126,198 → 98,962)

• Range: 27,236. Retracements from low:
  • 23.6%: ~105,392 (confluent with psychological 105k and today’s 104.99 high) – first cap.
  • 38.2%: ~109,360 – next upside magnet on a stronger push.
  • 50%: ~112,580 – mid-band aligns with the 20D mean/volume shelf.
  • 61.8%: ~115,794 – stretch target if a multi-day bounce develops.
• Current location: Just below 23.6% – this is a high-probability decision area; break-and-hold favors a continuation leg toward 106.5–109.4 over the next 24–72h. Failure here often retests mid-channel supports (103.6/102.0/101.5).

3. Moving averages and mean reversion

• Daily 20SMA (approx): ~110–111k (given closes since Oct 20). Price is below the 20SMA, implying the broader frame remains corrective, but also leaving a mean-reversion gap above. The daily 50SMA is likely ~113–115k and overhead; 200D not inferable from this dataset but likely above.
• Hourly EMAs: Price is tracking above short-baseline averages (e.g., 20/50-hour EMAs ~103.7–104.1), consistent with a developing intraday uptrend. A pullback into 103.6–104.0 should attract dip buyers if the structure is to continue.

4. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI (est.): mid-to-high 30s rising toward low-40s after the Nov 4–9 stabilization. That’s “bearish-but-improving” and supportive of a relief bounce without being overbought.
• Hourly RSI: Mostly 55–65 during the afternoon rally, peaking near the 104.99 print, then easing to ~55–58 on the small pullback – constructive, not divergent.
• MACD (daily): Negative but converging; histogram has likely been shrinking since the Nov 4 nadir, which often precedes a mean-reversion leg. Hourly MACD flipped positive earlier today and remains above signal despite the last hour’s dip.

5. Volatility and expected range

• Recent daily ranges suggest a 14D ATR on the order of ~3.0–3.8k. From 104.37, a one-day expected range envelopes ~101.0–108.0.
• Hourly Bollinger on 11/9: Bands expanded into the 14–21Z push (squeeze-release dynamic) with price currently consolidating just under upper-band territory. Daily Bollinger puts spot near the lower-to-mid band, consistent with a potential drift back toward the 20D mean (110k) across multiple sessions.

6. Volume, OBV, and profile context

• Post-capitulation behavior: The Nov 4 sell volume (111B) dwarfs subsequent sessions; rebounds occurring on moderate volume and pullbacks on diminishing volume fits an early accumulation/repair phase.
• OBV (qualitative read): Stabilizing after the spike-low; last two green closes (Nov 7 and today’s intraday) have come with reasonable participation.
• Volume shelves: 103.5–104.5 shows intraday acceptance today; 108–111k is a heavy prior trade zone likely to supply overhead resistance once reached.

7. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price below cloud; Tenkan likely ~103.8–104.5, Kijun ~108–110. We just reclaimed/are hovering around Tenkan, a first positive but still mid-repair signal; true trend confirmation would require conversion > baseline and price into/above the cloud (not imminent in 24h).
• Hourly: Price above the cloud with Kijun ~103.6 and Tenkan ~104.2; pullbacks into Kijun often buyable in intraday uptrends.

8. Pattern diagnostics

• Double-bottom variant near ~99k: Nov 4 low 98,962 and Nov 7/8 sub-100k probes formed a base attempt. The notional neckline is roughly where supply has capped the past two days: 104.8–105.4. A decisive hourly close >105.4 would confirm an actionable break with a measured move toward 107–108 initially (and 109.3 on momentum extension).
• Micro bull flag (hourly): The 21–22Z dip from 104.99 to ~104.34 resembles a flagging pause; continuation probability improves if buyers defend ~104.0–103.8 on the next test.

9. Risk factors for the next 24 hours

• Rejection at 105.4 (23.6% Fib) could quickly unwind to 103.6 then 102.0–101.5 as weak-longs exit.
• Macro/flow unknowns (weekend into Asia/Europe Monday): Volatility can spike on thin pockets; stops above 105 and below 103 can accelerate moves.

10. Scenarios with probabilities (subjective)

• Bullish (≈60%): Hold 103.6–104.0 pullback, break 105.4, extend to 106.5–107.5 within 24h; stretch print 108.0 possible if momentum persists.
• Neutral chop (≈15%): Range 103.4–105.4, repeated probes without resolution.
• Bearish (≈25%): Fail 105 test, lose 103.6, slide to 102.0–101.5; tail risk wick toward 100k if liquidity thins.

11. Trade plan synthesis (tactical, 24h)

• Bias: Buy the dip in the 103.8–104.0 demand pocket or buy a breakout through 105.5 with momentum confirmation. Given we must choose one optimal level, the dip-buy offers better R:R and aligns with the intraday Kijun/EMA cluster.
• Confluence for entry: 103.8–104.0 = hourly Kijun/50-EMA zone + intraday value area low + prior minor swing low support.
• Take-profit rationale: 106.7–107.0 is the first logical profit band (pre-108 friction), balancing ATR feasibility and overhead supply. A secondary extension exists at 108.3–109.4, but that is less certain within 24h.
• Risk anchor (stop concept – for context): Below 101.8 (under recent higher-low stack and hourly supports). This yields an approximate R:R >1.4 when entering ~103.95 and targeting ~106.9.

Call and 24h price path expectation

• Preferred path: Small dip to ~103.8–104.0, basing above 103.6, then a push to test/clear 105.4. Momentum through the neckline targets 106.5–107.5 by end of the 24h window.
• Forecast range for next 24h: 103.2–107.5 baseline, tails 101.8–108.0 if whippy.

Decision

• Action: Buy (Long). The setup is a tactical long for a relief pop within a still-damaged daily trend; manage expectations and take profits into the first resistance cluster.