BTC Poised for Ascending-Triangle Break: Tactical Long Aiming for 108.3k Within 24 Hours

Executive summary and 24h bias

• Bias next 24h: mild bullish continuation within a developing short-term uptrend, but still inside a broader medium-term downtrend. Expect a range 104,700–108,600 with an upside skew if 106,550 breaks and holds.
• Strategy stance: buy-the-dip or buy the ascending-triangle breakout; fade only on clean loss of 104,700.

Context and multi-timeframe trend read

• Higher timeframe (daily): From early October, BTC broke down from 126k to a capitulation low at 98,962 on Nov 4, then bounced. The structure since Nov 4 shows rising lows (101,301 on Nov 6; 102,282 on Nov 8; 104,720 on Nov 9) and higher highs (to 106,546 today), i.e., a nascent daily recovery inside a broader corrective regime.
• Intermediate trend: Price still below the 20- and likely the 50-day moving averages, so the medium-term remains corrective, but momentum is improving (less negative) and breadth is stabilizing.
• Intraday (hourly): Clear ascending triangle since yesterday: flat resistance around 106,500–106,550 and rising swing-lows from ~104,95 to ~105,58 to ~105,80. Multiple tests of resistance with shallower pullbacks suggest seller exhaustion and a higher probability of upside resolution.

Key levels (confluence driven)

• Support: 104,365–104,730 (today’s S1 pivot 104,366; 14:00 hour low 104,728); 103,650 (0.382 pullback of 98,962→106,546 leg); 102,750 (0.50 pullback); 101,860 (0.618 pullback) and structural 98,962 (cycle low).
• Resistance: 106,546 (intraday high and classic R1 pivot 106,547); 107,640 (R2 pivot 107,637); 108,300–108,600 (measured move of triangle and prior daily supply); 109,360–109,560 (0.382 retrace of 126,198→98,962 and Oct 31 close zone); then 110,640–111,030.
• Daily pivot math (based on today’s H/L/C: 106,546/104,365/105,458) gives: P ≈ 105,456 (current price hugs pivot), R1 ≈ 106,547, R2 ≈ 107,637, S1 ≈ 104,366, S2 ≈ 103,275. Price oscillating around P with higher lows favors eventual probe of R1/R2 if 105k holds in Asia.

Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily SMA20 ≈ 107,988 (approx). Price at 105,458 is below SMA20 by ~2.3%, indicating short-term mean-reversion headroom but not yet trend confirmation.
• Daily EMA12/EMA26 (qualitative): After Nov 4 washout, EMA12 has curled up toward EMA26; MACD-style short EMA likely below long EMA but converging. A bull cross is plausible within days if price can sustain above 106.5–108.0.
• 1h EMAs (qualitative): Price hugging 20/50 EMA ribbon and compressing; ribbon flattening is typical into a breakout from a squeeze. Reclaim and hold above 1h VWAP/EMA20 (~105.9–106.1) would be a constructive tell.

Momentum indicators

• Daily RSI(14): recovering from oversold; estimate mid-40s to high-40s. Room to push to neutral 50–55 on a break toward 108k.
• 1h RSI: around low-50s, consistent with an ascending consolidation; repeated pushes to 60 without overbought blow-off shows controlled accumulation.
• MACD (daily): histogram less negative since Nov 5; signal-line cross higher likely imminent if price maintains higher lows. A push through 106.5–107 would likely deepen positive histogram slope.

Volatility and bands

• Daily ATR(14) estimate: ~5.5k–6.0k. Current daily range (2.18k) is below ATR, indicative of compression after the early-Nov squeeze. Compression often precedes expansion.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~108k; lower ~100k; upper ~116k (approx). Price below mid-band but well above lower band, sitting in the lower-middle of the envelope. Mean-reversion pull toward the mid-band is consistent with a 108k target if buyers break 106.5.
• 1h Bollinger: Squeeze behavior evident with multiple tags near mid-band; the series of higher lows indicates energy building for a directional move.

Ichimoku read (qualitative)

• Daily: Price still below Kumo but Tenkan has likely crossed up and is tracking toward Kijun. A clean close above ~108–109k would start to shift the daily tenor from corrective to recovery.
• 1h: Price oscillating around a thin cloud with a bullish twist likely or recently printed; Kijun ~106.0, Tenkan ~105.9. Holding above Kijun after Asia open would favor a push into 107–108.

Pattern diagnostics and measured moves

• Ascending triangle (1h): Flat top ~106,55; rising trendline from ~104,95. Height ~1.8k. Breakout objective: 106,55 + 1.8k ≈ 108,35. This lines up with R2 extension and mid-BB gravitation on daily.
• Post-capitulation base (daily): Hammer-like behavior on Nov 4; follow-through with higher lows suggests a classic A-B-C low or the start of an impulsive 1–2–3 sequence.
• Elliott micro count (speculative): Wave 1 from 98,962 to ~103,9 (Nov 7), wave 2 to ~102,3 (Nov 8), wave 3 driving to ~106,55 (today), wave 4 a shallow intraday consolidation ~105,2–105,6, projecting wave 5 to 107,8–108,6. Failure below 104,7 invalidates this micro count.

Fibonacci confluences

• Larger swing retrace (Oct 6 high 126,198 to Nov 4 low 98,962):
  • 23.6% ≈ 105,390 (today’s close sits right on this). A sustained hold above 105,4 often opens a path toward the 38.2% ≈ 109,360.
  • 50% ≈ 112,580; 61.8% ≈ 115,800 are stretch targets beyond 24h scope but anchor resistance.
• Recent leg (98,962 to 106,546): 38.2% ≈ 103,650; 50% ≈ 102,750; 61.8% ≈ 101,860. Dips into 104.7–103.7 would still be constructive unless 103.6 breaks.

Volume and market profile cues

• Hourly volume upticks on tests toward 106k (notably 19:00–20:00) show active participation and absorption of offers near resistance. Pullback volumes are lighter, a hallmark of bullish consolidation.
• Post-Nov 4, downside drives have diminished volume compared to the capitulation day, consistent with seller fatigue.

Candlestick behavior

• Daily: Sequence from Nov 4 shows a long lower shadow and subsequent small-bodied candles with higher closes, indicative of accumulation. Today’s print straddling the pivot with a close near mid-range is typical of a pause before continuation.
• Hourly: Repeated long lower wicks near 104,8–105,2 were bought aggressively, strengthening the 104,7–105,2 demand shelf.

Classical pivots and expectancy

• With P ≈ 105,456 essentially at the current price, the session is at a decision point. Given the rising intraday lows and multiple R1 tests, statistically a move to R1 and partial travel to R2 has higher-than-random odds if Asia reclaims 106,0–106,2 early.

Risk metrics and scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (≈60–65%): Hold 105k region, break 106,55, extend to 107,6–108,4. Expect consolidation near 106,8 and 107,6 before a tag of 108,3 ± 0,3.
• Alternative bullish (≈20%): Sharp break and trend day to 109,3–109,6 (Fib 38.2 and Oct 31 close band) if momentum inflows accelerate.
• Bearish risk case (≈15–20%): Lose 104,7 pivot shelf, slide to 103,65 (Fib 38.2 of the Nov upswing). Below 103,65 opens 102,75. Only a decisive close below 102,7 threatens the post-capitulation base.

Corroborating tools and micro structure tells

• VWAP (intraday approximate): Price slightly below/around session VWAP into the last hours, but demand showed up on every sub-105,3 dip. A push above VWAP and hold would embolden a breakout chase.
• Put-call/funding (not provided): Not assessed here, but the technicals alone justify a tactical long while maintaining tight invalidation.

Trade thesis and plan (tactical)

• Thesis: Post-capitulation accumulation with an ascending triangle on the 1h chart, constructive momentum, and multi-tool confluence around 106,5 breakout and 105,0–105,3 buy zone. Reward-to-risk favorable into 108,3–108,6 within 24h.
• Entry preference: Staggered approach favors a buy-the-dip limit in the 105,1–105,3 area (near rising trendline and session pivot), rather than chasing at resistance. A secondary trigger is a breakout buy through 106,6 on volume (noted but our single optimal entry is the dip).
• Invalidation (stop guidance): A decisive break and 1h close below 104,700 weakens the setup; more defensive traders can place a hard stop 104,600–104,650. This keeps R:R ≳ 1:2 when targeting 108,3 from a ~105,25 entry.
• Targets: Primary TP 108,350 (triangle measured move and near R2 extension). Stretch TP 109,300–109,600 if momentum is strong; trailing a portion is reasonable, but for clarity we set a single take-profit.

Why Buy, not Sell

• Sellers failed to gain traction on multiple probes under 105,5; each dip is bought at higher prices, while overhead 106,55 is being weakened by repeated tests. Momentum and pattern dynamics favor an upside break. Shorting into an ascending triangle, with price above a rising intraday trendline and after a capitulation low, has inferior expectancy unless 104,7 fails first.

Predicted path in the next 24 hours

• Asia open: probe 105,1–105,3; if held, grind to 106,0–106,2.
• Europe/early US: attempt at 106,55 breakout; first objective 107,2–107,6, then 108,3.
• Late session: consolidation between 107,0–108,0; risk of wick to 108,6 if momentum funds pile in.

Risk notes

• A sharp macro headline could expand ATR back toward 6–8k; if that coincides with a loss of 104,7, the bullish setup is invalidated until 103,6–102,8 re-tests stabilize.

Conclusion

• The weight of evidence across pivots, Fibonacci, structure, Bollinger/ATR compression, and momentum supports a tactical long with an optimal dip entry near 105,250 and a 24h take-profit at ~108,350. Maintain discipline with a stop just below 104,700 to protect capital and preserve favorable R:R.