BTC Poised To Probe 100k: Bear-Flag Breakdown Points To One More Leg Lower

Bitcoin (BTC) – Comprehensive Multi-Method Technical Assessment and 24h Outlook

1. Market Structure and Trend (HTF to MTF)

• Daily trend: Clear downtrend since the mid-October failure above ~125k and the capitulation on Oct 10. Price has printed a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The early-November bounce (Nov 4–10) stalled at ~106.6k and has rolled over. Current price 102,762 sits below key moving averages, confirming bearish structure.
• 4h/1h trend: Persistent intraday sell program on Nov 11 with successive lower highs, lower lows; closing near the session’s lows indicates sellers in control into the next session.
• Market regime: Risk-off/markdown. Rallies have been sold and green candles carry lighter volume than red ones.

2. Key Support/Resistance and Liquidity Map

• Immediate supports: 102.5–102.8k (being tested), 101.8–102.0k (Fib/BB confluence), 100.6k (78.6% retrace cluster), psychological 100k, and 98.96k (Nov 4 swing low/liquidity pool).
• Overhead resistance: 103.4–103.8k (intraday supply/broken support), 104.7–105.2k (hourly supply node), 106.0–106.6k (recent swing high and distribution shelf).
• Liquidity: Obvious stop pools likely resting just below 102k, 100k, and the prior absolute low ~98.96k. Thin pockets between 102–101k increase the probability of a quick sweep once 102k slips.

3. Moving Averages (Trend Filters)

• Daily 20-SMA: ≈109–110k (estimate). Price well below; bearish bias.
• Daily 50-SMA: ≈112–114k (estimate). Price below; confirms medium-term downtrend.
• Daily 200-SMA: ≈110–112k (estimate). Price below; longer-term trend now flat-to-down and price is trading south of it. Bearish regime.
• Hourly 20/50-EMA: Both declining and stacked bearishly below the 200-EMA; price trading under all three for most of the session. Intraday momentum is negative.

4. Momentum Oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Low-to-mid 30s (estimate). Bearish momentum but not deeply oversold, allowing further downside before a strong mean-reversion impulse.
• 4h RSI/Stoch RSI: Oversold/oscillating near floor most of the day; minor bounce risk exists, but trending markets can remain oversold while grinding lower.
• MACD (daily): Below zero with widening negative histogram as of today’s selloff; bearish acceleration.

5. Volatility and Range (ATR, BB)

• Daily ATR(14): ≈3.5k–4.0k. Implies typical 24h movement can easily span 3–4k.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈109–110k, Lower ≈101.8–102.0k. Price riding the lower band (“band walk”), a classic bearish trend condition. First touch often bounces, but persistent hugging signals continuation risk.

6. Ichimoku (Daily)

• Price below Kumo; Lagging Span below price and under cloud; Tenkan < Kijun. Future cloud tilted down. Full bearish alignment, supportive of trend continuation.

7. Volume Analytics

• Distribution cues: High-volume down days (Oct 10, mid-late Oct, Nov 3–5) versus lower-volume bounces suggest supply dominance.
• OBV (qualitative): Making lower lows, consistent with distribution and confirming price’s downtrend.
• Volume profile (recent weeks): Notable acceptance above 110k in October has been lost; current acceptance shifting lower. Below 102k, volume thins until ~100k, increasing spill-through risk on breaks.

8. Pattern Recognition

• Bear flag resolved: The Nov 4–10 rebound resembles a flag/ABC corrective pop that failed under 106.6k, now breaking down.
• Descending channel: Price respecting a downward-sloping channel since mid-October. Today’s close is near the lower half; channel continuation favors lower lows after shallow bounces.
• Candles: Near-marubozu red daily candle, closing near lows; bearish follow-through probability is elevated.
• Heikin-Ashi read: Consecutive red bodies, small/absent upper wicks intraday; trend pressure intact.

9. Fibonacci Levels (last swing up: 98,962 → 106,565)

• Range: 7,603.
• 38.2%: ~103,682 (minor resistance, already lost/retested intraday).
• 50%: ~102,764 (current price cluster). Losing this decisively points to...
• 61.8%: ~101,845 (next support target).
• 78.6%: ~100,596 (pre-psychological shelf).
• 100%: 98,962 (full retrace and obvious liquidity magnet if 100k breaks).

10. DMI/ADX and SAR (Daily)

• ADX rising from the mid-20s toward 30 (estimate), with -DI > +DI. Indicates strengthening bearish trend.
• Parabolic SAR above price, reinforcing a sell-the-rips bias.

11. Regression and Mean-Reversion Checks

• Linear regression (20–30 days): Negative slope; price below the mean by about 1 standard deviation. The setup favors trend continuation, but minor reversion pops into resistance are common (ideal short entries).

12. Intraday VWAP and Microstructure

• Session VWAP (Nov 11): Above last price; repeated rejections on VWAP-tag attempts earlier in the day. Negative VWAP distance suggests intraday sellers remain in control.
• Order book dynamics: Likely resting bids near 102.0–101.8k and large psychological bids near 100k; however, “first touch” may wick through due to stop runs.

13. Wyckoff/Elliott Context

• Wyckoff: Distribution in October, Markdown since early November (Phase E). Today’s action fits continued markdown.
• Elliott (heuristic): A 5-wave down from the 125k handle still plausibly in wave 5 or an extended C; projection favors a probe below round-number support before a higher-timeframe counter-trend rally attempt.

14. Risk Factors and Alternative Scenarios

• Short-term oversold on intraday frames could produce a 0.5–1.5% bounce toward 103.3–103.8k without changing the bearish picture. That bounce is preferable for entry.
• A sharp macro catalyst could squeeze price to 104.7–105.2k; above 106.0–106.6k would threaten the short thesis for the next 24h. Probability: low barring unexpected news.

15. 24-Hour Path Projection (probabilistic)

• Base case (60%): Brief bounce to 103.3–103.8k, roll over to test 101.8k, then 100.6k; liquidity sweep of 100k possible; intraday low 99.8–100.3k; late-session stabilization ~101–102k.
• Bear extension (25%): Direct slide with minimal bounce; breaks 102k quickly, tags 100k, spikes to 98.9–99.5k before reflexive rebound.
• Bull surprise (15%): Squeeze through 103.8k → 104.7–105.2k, stalls under 106k and fades; genuine trend reversal unlikely without recapture of 106.6k and daily momentum flip.

Conclusion and Rationale

• Multi-timeframe alignment is bearish: price below major MAs, MACD negative, RSI not yet capitulation-level on daily, BB band-walk, Ichimoku fully bearish, and volume supports distribution. The 50% Fib is failing; the next magnets are 61.8% (~101.85k), 78.6% (~100.6k), and the psychological 100k. With ATR ~3–4k, a 2.5–3.0k push lower in the next 24h is plausible. Strategy: Sell the bounce into broken supports rather than chase lows.

Trade Plan (Short-Term, 24h)

• Bias: Sell (Short).
• Entry: Limit sell on a minor bounce into 103,300 (conservative within the 103.3–103.8k supply pocket). Alternative momentum add: break <102,400 (not included in price field but noted in plan).
• Target: Take profit near 100,250, just above psychological 100k and the 78.6% retracement cluster to capture the expected sweep while front-running heavy round-number bids.
• Risk control (strongly recommended): Protective stop (not part of requested fields) around 104,800–105,200 to invalidate the immediate setup; risk ~1.5–1.9k per BTC versus ~3.0k reward → ~1.6–2.0 R multiple.

Bottom line: The path of least resistance remains down; favor selling strength into 103.3k with a target near 100.25k over the next 24 hours.