BTC teeters above 100k: Sell the bounce into 103k for a 99k liquidity sweep

Executive summary

• Regime: Dominant daily downtrend since the early-October top (~126k). Successive lower highs and lower lows. Recent bounce stalled under 106k and has rolled over. Price is now hovering just above the key psychological 100k and the Nov 4 swing low (~98,962).
• Bias (next 24h): Bearish-to-neutral with a high probability of a 100k retest and potential liquidity sweep toward 99k; relief bounces likely capped near 103.5–104.5k.
• Plan: Favor shorting a bounce into resistance (sell the rip) rather than chasing lows. Entry zone ~103.0–103.5k with target near 99.0–99.5k. Invalidation above ~105.5–106k (analysis-only risk guardrail; not part of the output order).

Multi-timeframe price action Daily structure

• Trend: Clear sequence of lower highs since the Oct 6 peak (126,198) and lower lows into Nov (lowest 98,962 on Nov 4). The strong Oct 10 and Nov 4 distribution days (very high volume, large range) mark aggressive supply. Subsequent rallies failed to reclaim former support levels (e.g., 111–114k), turning them into resistance.
• Recent candles: After a two-day bounce to 106k (Nov 9–10), Nov 11–12 rolled over sharply. Today’s intraday action printed a long upper shadow (105k rejection) and closed near session lows (~101.85k at last print), signaling persistent supply.
• Key levels: Support 100k (psychological) and 98.9k (swing low); Resistance 103.5–104.5k (intraday supply), 105.8–106k (recent swing rejection), then 110–112k (former support, now resistance).

Hourly structure (Nov 11–12)

• Intraday rejection cluster: 104.8–105.3k supply repeatedly capped price between 10:00–13:00 UTC, followed by a trend day lower into the US session.
• Liquidity behavior: Sharp sell program around 15:00–20:00 with heavy prints into 101–102k; a brief stabilization into the last hours but no decisive reversal structure. Lower highs remain intact on the hourly.
• Micro supports: 101.1–101.3k held multiple times; the session low sweep reached 100.86k. A thin pocket resides below 100k down to ~99k (prior low cluster), with stops likely resting under 100k.

Trend and moving averages

• 20D SMA: Roughly ~107k (price well below). 50D SMA likely near ~113k. Alignment price < 20D < 50D: bearish stacking consistent with a sustained downtrend.
• Short MAs (hourly 20/50 EMA): Rolling lower; every intraday bounce today failed at or just above the shorter MA pack, confirming trend control by sellers.

Momentum indicators

• RSI (daily): Likely mid-30s/low-40s region; corrective bounce failed to push RSI back to neutral, indicating momentum remains bearish. Not deeply oversold; room to extend.
• RSI (hourly): Hovering around low-40s. Minor bullish divergences are weak, repeatedly invalidated by lower highs. Any divergence is better treated as bounce fuel into resistance rather than a trend reversal signal.
• MACD (daily): Below zero; histogram rolled back down after a shallow mean-reversion. Bearish momentum re-expanding.
• Stochastic RSI (daily/hourly): Likely cycling from mid-levels down; no sustained buy trigger held.
• ADX/DI (daily): Trend strength remains elevated (>25) with -DI > +DI; sellers retain directional control.
• Aroon (daily): Aroon Down high, Aroon Up suppressed—supports ongoing downtrend.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14D): Elevated (~4–5k). Expect 24h realized range around one ATR. That places a reasonable path to 99k on the downside or 104k on the upside in a single session.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): Mid-band near ~107k; lower band approximately near ~100k. Price is “walking the lower band,” typical of downtrends. Any tag/hover at the lower band often produces small bounces that fail at the mid-band.
• Keltner Channels: Price outside/near lower envelope—trend pressure rather than mean-reverting compression.
• Donchian channels (20D): Lower bound defined by 98.9k; a break would open continuation risk to mid-90s.

Volume and flow

• Distribution signature: Oct 10 and Nov 4 saw outsized sell volume vs buy volume on rebounds. This is classic distribution.
• OBV (qualitative): Trending down with price—confirms that rallies are not sponsored by strong accumulation.
• CMF/MFI (qualitative): Likely negative/weak given heavier sell volumes on down days and tepid buying on up days. Money flow not supportive of trend reversal yet.
• VWAP/Anchored VWAP: Price remains below session VWAPs and well below AVWAP anchored to the Nov 4 event low, implying sellers aggressively defend rallies into VWAP.

Support/resistance, liquidity, and order flow context

• Major supports: 100k (psych), 98.9k (swing). Below that, thin liquidity pockets to 95k (harmonic extension/fib confluence) and then 92k (1.272 extension).
• Overhead supply: 103.0–103.5k (intraday sell zone), 105.5–106k (swing rejection band), 110–112k (broken shelf). Expect offers stacked there.
• Liquidity map: Obvious stop pools below 100k; a sweep below 100k into 99k is a high-probability probe. On the upside, short-covering could run to 103.5–104.5k where fresh supply likely re-enters.

Pattern and structures

• Descending channel: Price trades near the lower rail, consistent with potential brief mean reversion to the midline (~103–104k) before another leg down.
• Bear flag/continuation: Nov 4 low to Nov 10 high (106k) resembles a corrective flag that has now broken lower. Measured move points to mid- to low-90s over a multi-day horizon; within 24h, 99–100k is the nearer target.
• Candlestick behavior: Today’s upper-wick rejection after testing 105k aligns with supply dominance; not a bottoming signal.

Fibonacci and harmonics

• From Oct 6 high (126,198) to Nov 4 low (98,962): The bounce failed to reach the 38.2% (~109.4k), signaling weak demand. This strengthens the continuation case.
• A-B-C corrective path (A=110,064 on Nov 1; B=98,962 on Nov 4; C=105,997 on Nov 10): A 1.0 extension projects D ≈ 94,900; 1.272 ≈ 91,900. These are medium-term risk zones if 98.9k breaks. For the next 24h, the 99k test is the most proximate objective.

Ichimoku

• Price below Kumo; Tenkan < Kijun; Chikou below price—full bearish stack. Kijun resistance likely around ~107–110k; recent rallies failed below even 106k, underscoring weak corrective power.

Additional indicators

• Parabolic SAR: Likely above price on daily and hourly, consistent with trend-down conditions.
• Williams %R / CCI: Consistent with trend pressure; occasional shallow mean reversion but no durable reversal signals.
• Heikin-Ashi lens: Consecutive bearish candles with extended bodies and small upper wicks, indicating continuation momentum.

Scenario analysis (24h)

• Base case (≈60%): Retest 100k; liquidity sweep sub-100k into 99.0–99.5k; modest bounce thereafter. Likely session close near 100.2–101.0k.
• Bear extension (≈25%): Clean break of 98.9k, acceleration toward 95–96k (measured move corridor). Requires elevated volume continuation.
• Squeeze risk (≈15%): Relief rally into 103.5–104.5k (possibly tagging 105k in a stop run) before sellers reassert. This fits a sell-the-bounce plan.

Timing and execution notes

• Optimal entry: Short into strength near 103.0–103.5k (hourly resistance, VWAP/supply confluence). This improves reward-to-risk versus selling breakdowns into 100k where whipsaws are frequent.
• Profit-taking: First target 99.0–99.5k (just above the prior swing low to front-run bids and avoid missing fills). Aggressive extensions can trail if 98.9k breaks with momentum.
• Invalidation (analysis context): Sustained trade above 105.5–106k would negate the immediate bear setup and put 107.5–110k back in play. That would reduce the short’s edge.

Outlook and expectation

• Expected 24h range: 99,000–104,200 with a bearish skew.
• Expected directional outcome: Drift/lower grind with an elevated risk of a 100k break and quick tag of 99k before any bounce. Any rallies should face supply near 103.5–104.5k.

Conclusion

• The dominant trend, momentum, volume profile, and failure of corrective rallies concur on a bearish continuation bias. The most efficient approach is to sell a bounce into the 103k area and target a move into ~99k over the next session. Oversold signals exist but have not produced structural reversals; they are better used to time countertrend entries for shorts (sell the rip) than to call a trend change.