BTC teeters under 100k: Sell the bounce into 101k, target a sweep to mid‑96k

Executive summary and 24h bias

• Bias next 24h: Sell the bounce. Expect a relief rally toward 100,3k–101,8k followed by renewed downside to sweep 98k and probe 96,5k–97,2k. Path: pop into resistance → failure under VWAP/pivot → lower low.
• Trade idea: Short into strength around 100,9k with take‑profit near 96,65k. Invalidation for idea if sustained reclaim and hourly close above 102,7k–103,2k.

1. Market structure and price action

• Higher‑timeframe context (daily): Since the early-October peak (~126k on Oct 6), BTC has made a sequence of lower highs (126k → 124,8k → 118,6k → 113k → 107,4k) and lower lows (113k → 106,5k → 101,6k → 98,0k today). This is a classic bearish structure.
• Break of key psychological level: Today’s decisive push below 100k and print of a marginal new low (98,035) under the Nov 4 swing (98,962) confirms continuation of the downtrend.
• Intraday behavior (hourly): The day started with a drift around 102–103,6k, then sold steadily to 98,0–98,9k. The latter hours show stabilization, but no confirmed bullish market structure shift (still lower highs/lows). Expect mean-reversion first, then continuation.

2. Trend analysis with moving averages

• Daily MAs (approx): Price trades well below the 20D SMA (≈110–112k), the 50D SMA (≈113–115k), and the 200D SMA (likely ≥105–108k given prior months). Bearish alignment with 20D < 50D? The 20D is now sloping down and below the 50D; both above price. Trend-following bias remains short until a daily reclaim of the 20D.
• 4H/1H EMAs: On the 1H, price holds below the 21/50 EMA cluster and below the 200 EMA. Rallies into the 1H 50/200 EMA band (100,8k–102,5k) are high-probability fade zones.
• Conclusion: The trend filter is bearish; sell rallies.

3. Momentum oscillators (RSI, MACD, Stochastic)

• Daily RSI: Likely 33–37 area. Bearish but not deeply oversold; room remains for another leg lower after bounce.
• Hourly RSI: Dipped sub‑30 near 98k, then recovered toward mid‑30s/40s—typical for relief bounces within downtrends. Watch for RSI to stall 50–55 on the bounce.
• MACD (daily): Below signal and zero line; histogram widening on the latest leg down—bearish continuation.
• MACD (hourly): Shows initial loss of downside momentum and potential minor bullish divergence between the 17:00 low (~99,7k) and the 20:00–21:00 low (~98,0k) with less negative histogram. This supports a short-term bounce into resistance before resumption downward.
• Stochastic (hourly): Likely cycling up from oversold; tends to top out around resistance bands in bear phases.

4. Volatility and range statistics

• Recent daily ranges: Multiple 4–6k sessions; today’s H-L ≈ 5,941. 14D ATR estimated around 4,3–4,8k. A 24h move of ±4–5k from any rebound point is feasible.
• Implications: From a 101k entry, a 4–5k move down targets mid‑96k to 97k within 24h—aligned with the trade idea.

5. Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels

• Daily BB: Price is riding or below the lower band for multiple days—downtrend pressure. Mean reversion often occurs toward the 20D mid-band, but that is far above (~110k); in bear phases, intraday reversion tends to the hourly mid-band first (≈101k as of today’s action).
• Hourly BB: Bands expanded on the selloff. With BB squeeze likely after expansion, expect a fade of rebounds to the mid-band/upper band near 100,7k–101,8k.

6. Ichimoku Cloud (multi-timeframe read)

• Daily: Price is below the cloud; Tenkan < Kijun and both below cloud; Chikou below price—full bearish stack. Kijun around 110–112k acts as distant magnet but unlikely in 24h.
• 1H: Price is under the cloud; any bounce likely tests the Kijun/Cloud base around 100,8k–101,8k. Typical bear reaction is rejection there.

7. VWAP and intraday mean-reversion

• Session VWAP (inferred) sits above last trades because most volume occurred during the drop. A reasonable VWAP magnet lies near 100,5k–101k. Expect countertrend players to lean on VWAP; failing to hold above after a test signals resumption of the downtrend.

8. Classical support/resistance and liquidity

• Resistance supply zones: 100,3k–101,5k (round-number reclaim, hourly supply, pivot region), then 102,5k–103,6k (R1/EMA200H/swing supply). The latter should cap if a sharp squeeze happens.
• Supports/targets: 98,0–98,5k (today’s low and prior Nov 4 pivot), then 97,2k and 96,3–96,7k (calculated S1/pocket of thin volume). Below, 94,3k (S2) is a stretch scenario within 24h but not base case.
• Liquidity map: Sell‑side liquidity sits below 98k (stops under today’s low). Expect a stop run lower after bounce. Buy‑side liquidity accumulated above 100k; a quick sweep into that zone offers optimal short fills.

9. Fibonacci confluence

• Swing Nov 11 high (107,428) → today’s low (98,036): Retracement levels: 23.6% ≈ 100,2k; 38.2% ≈ 101,4k; 50% ≈ 102,7k; 61.8% ≈ 103,9k.
• Confluence: 100,2k aligns with daily pivot P; 101,4k with 38.2% and hourly supply; 102,7k with 50% + EMA200H/R1 region; 103,9k with 61.8% and prior intraday highs. The 100,9k–101,5k zone is the first strong sell window.

10. Pivot points for the next session (using H=103,976; L=98,036; C=98,820)

• Pivot P ≈ 100,277
• R1 ≈ 102,519; R2 ≈ 106,218
• S1 ≈ 96,578; S2 ≈ 94,337 Interpretation: Expect price to test P shortly; failure there implies S1 draw at ~96,6k within 24h.

11. Donchian channels and breakout context

• Today’s print set a new multi-day low. In downtrends, Donchian lower breaks tend to follow through after a modest pullback. The immediate pullback area matches the pivot/VWAP zone (100–101,5k).

12. Wyckoff lens

• October showed distribution; November is markdown. Today’s action resembles a reactionary selling climax on the hourly followed by an automatic rally (AR) and secondary test expected. After AR to 100–101k, a lower low beneath 98k is typical before any larger re-accumulation can begin.

13. Elliott wave sketch (heuristic)

• From 107,4k (Nov 11) to 98,0k (Nov 13) appears as a completed 5-wave impulse down on intraday scale. Expect an ABC corrective rally toward 38.2–50% (101,4k–102,7k), then another impulsive leg lower. This fits the sell-the-bounce plan.

14. Volume analysis

• Today’s biggest hourly volumes occurred during the drop into 98k—capitulation-like but not climactic on the daily scale (prior massive volume days on Oct 10 and Nov 4 were larger). This suggests more downside potential after a relief rally.
• OBV (inferred) rolling over since early October; no accumulation signal yet.

15. Risk sentiment and positioning (inference)

• Psychological break of 100k often shifts options gamma negative and triggers dealer-driven volatility. Expect whippy mean-reversion pops that fail under resistance until 100k can be reclaimed and held on a daily close (not base case next 24h).

16. Time-of-day/Session tendencies

• After large New York sell days, Asia often attempts a bounce into Europe; if Europe fails the VWAP/pivot reclaim, New York tends to press lows again. This sequencing favors a fade of any early-session pop.

17. Keltner channels/ATR bands

• Price pressed the lower ATR/Keltner envelope on the hourly. Mean reversion generally returns to the midline (≈100,7k–101,2k) before trend continuation to a fresh low within the same 24h window.

18. Scenario mapping and probabilities (qualitative)

• Base case (≈60%): Bounce to 100,5k–101,5k, rejection, selloff to 96,5k–97,2k, close sub‑99k.
• Squeeze case (≈25%): Overshoot to 102,5k–103,0k (50% fib/EMA200H), then fade; would still favor shorts but entry patience required.
• Bear failure (≈15%): Strong reclaim >103,6k and hold above, invalidating the immediate short; opens path to 105–106k retest.

19. Trade plan and execution details

• Rationale: Confluence of downtrend structure, below all key MAs, bearish daily MACD, loss of 100k, and fib/pivot resistance overhead. Hourly momentum suggests a bounce first; best RR is to sell into that strength.
• Entry method: Passive limit sell in the 100,7k–101,5k zone; midpoint 100,9k selected as optimal.
• Stop (not requested but prudent): Above 102,7k–103,2k cluster to protect against 50% retrace squeeze.
• Targeting: First target S1 ≈ 96,6k; secondary extension 95–95,5k if momentum accelerates. We set TP at 96,65k for high probability within 24h.

20. What would change the view?

• A strong hourly close above 102,7k and sustained hold of 101,5k–102k as support would warn of a larger squeeze toward 103,9k–106k. A daily close back above 100k is not enough alone; follow‑through and structure shift are required.

24-hour price path projection

• Asia: Bounce toward 100,2k (pivot) → probe 100,9k–101,4k.
• Europe: Failure under VWAP/pivot, roll over to retest 98,5k–98k.
• New York: Liquidity sweep sub‑98k; extension to 96,6k–97,2k; day settles 97,5k–99,5k.

Conclusion

• The weight of evidence favors selling a rally. The optimal short is into 100,9k with confluence from pivot P, 23.6–38.2% retrace, hourly EMA cluster, and VWAP resistance. Target the S1 zone around 96,6k within 24 hours.