CRO Poised to Reclaim $0.15: Dip-Buy Setup Above 38.2% Fib Support

Executive market snapshot

• Asset: Cronos (CRO)
• Timestamp: 2025-08-20 21:00 UTC
• Last price: $0.14482
• Data coverage: Daily OHLCV from 2025-05-23 to 2025-08-19, live intraday (hourly) on 2025-08-20

High-level read

• Primary trend (since late June): Uptrend from the June base ($0.0799) to the August 11 peak ($0.1730), followed by a corrective pullback.
• Current tactical state: Rebound day after a sharp two-day selloff into $0.136. Price reclaimed above the daily pivot and is pressing toward R1 with higher intraday lows, indicating buyers are regaining control.
• Next 24h bias: Moderately bullish with overhead resistance stacked at $0.146, $0.149–$0.151, and $0.155. Dips into $0.142–$0.143 likely get bought unless broader market risk-off intervenes.

1. Multi-timeframe price action and structure Daily structure

• Trend change point: July 8 saw a high-volume range expansion from ~$0.081 to ~$0.097, kick-starting the broader uptrend that culminated at ~$0.173 (Aug 11).
• Pullback character: From Aug 11 high (~$0.173), CRO retraced swiftly to the $0.150–$0.151 zone (Aug 15–17), then flushed to $0.136 on Aug 19. That flush printed a large lower tail relative to the August range, signaling responsive buying at value.
• Current placement versus swing fibs (Jun 22 low $0.07988 to Aug 11 high $0.17301):
  • 61.8%: ~$0.1154
  • 50%: ~$0.1265
  • 38.2%: ~$0.1374
  • 23.6%: ~$0.1511 Price is now above 38.2% ($0.1374) but below 23.6% ($0.1511) — i.e., in the “healthy pullback” zone of a continuing uptrend. Regaining/closing above $0.151 would confirm buyers are back in control and set sights on mid-$0.15s.

Intraday (hourly) structure on Aug 20

• Sequence: 0.136 open rally to 0.145, shallow pullbacks, higher lows, and steady grind — classic intraday accumulation. Multiple candles closed near highs (mini Marubozu-type), typical in a “band walk” toward upper volatility envelopes.
• Micro range: $0.1420–$0.1455 during the US session, tightening into the close with buyers holding VWAP.
• Key micro levels derived from the tape:
  • Support: $0.1420–0.1428 (former intraday congestion), $0.1404 (hour’s breakdown pivot), $0.1388 (early-session pullback close), and $0.136 (daily flush low).
  • Resistance: $0.1458–0.1460 (R1 zone), $0.149–$0.151 (major), $0.155–$0.157 (stretch target aligning with R2 vicinity from pivots and prior supply).

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20-day SMA (estimate): ~$0.148–0.150. Price is currently just below it. A close back above the 20D would indicate the correction is likely over.
• 50-day SMA (estimate): ~$0.120–0.130, firmly below price — medium-term uptrend intact.
• 10-day EMA (estimate): ~$0.148 declining marginally; price is attempting to reclaim it.
• Read-through: The “between 20D and 50D” zone is typically buy-the-dip territory in ongoing uptrends. A move through the 20D (~$0.149) should accelerate toward $0.151–$0.155.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI (14) qualitative read: After peaking in the 60s–70s at the high, the pullback likely dragged RSI to the mid-40s/low-50s. Today’s rebound should nudge it toward 50–55 — consistent with momentum repair and room to run before overbought.
• Hourly RSI: Tracking in the 55–65 zone during the session, with no clear bearish divergence yet — supports continued grind higher toward resistance unless we see a sharp negative divergence on a $0.146–$0.149 test.
• MACD (daily) qualitative: The pullback likely produced a bearish cross early week; histogram contraction today hints at a potential curl-up if price sustains above $0.145–$0.146 for another session. On hourly, MACD is already positive, consistent with the intraday up-channel.
• Stoch RSI (intraday) qualitative: Cycling high but can stay pinned in uptrends; look for only shallow resets on dips toward $0.143–$0.144.

4. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR(14) estimate: ~$0.008–$0.011. A $0.006–$0.010 up-leg over 24h is reasonable from $0.1448, implying $0.151–$0.155 is attainable if resistance breaks.
• Bollinger Bands (daily) qualitative: Bands expanded into Aug 11, then narrowed on the pullback. Price is moving from the lower/mid band back toward the middle/upper band region, a typical mean-reversion-to-trend setup.
• Keltner Channels: Price re-entered the mid-channel; intraday “band walk” behavior suggests momentum with controlled volatility.

5. Volume, VWAP, and participation

• Volume profile: Large July expansion (notably July 8) established structural demand. August advance also carried healthy volume, confirming trend validity.
• Recent action: Aug 19’s selloff volume was meaningful but not capitulative; Aug 20’s rebound is occurring on reasonable participation and above session VWAP — constructive.
• VWAP (intraday): Price consistently held above VWAP for most of the session; pullbacks into VWAP (~$0.143–$0.144) drew buyers — a good location for tactical entries.
• OBV (qualitative): Likely stabilizing after recent pullback; today indicates accumulation aligning with higher intraday lows.

6. Support, resistance, and market profile zones

• Immediate supports: $0.142–$0.143 (intraday shelf/VWAP), $0.140–$0.141 (pivot proximity), $0.1388, and $0.136 (flush low).
• Near-term resistances: $0.146 (R1 and recent intraday supply), $0.149–$0.151 (Fib 23.6% + prior distribution top), $0.155–$0.157 (August resistance band), then $0.164–$0.166 (late-stage rally zone pre-top) if momentum extends beyond 24h.

7. Fibonacci mapping and confluence

• Primary fib retracement (0.0799 → 0.1730): Price reclaimed above 38.2% ($0.1374). The 23.6% at ~$0.1511 aligns with a prominent resistance cluster and the 20D SMA — a strong magnet/decision point.
• Micro swing fib (Aug 19 low $0.1359 → today’s high ~$0.1451): 50% pullback sits ~$0.1405; 61.8% ~$0.1396. Buyers defended the 38.2–61.8% zone intraday — confirms dip demand.
• Confluence: $0.149–$0.151 is a tri-cluster of Fib 23.6%, MA resistance, and prior structural supply; $0.142–$0.143 is a multi-test demand with VWAP confluence.

8. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price likely still above the longer-term cloud; Tenkan fell beneath Kijun during pullback but is stabilizing. A Tenkan recapture and bullish curl is plausible on continued strength above $0.146–$0.149.
• Hourly: Price above cloud, Conversion > Base, Lagging span above price — a short-term bullish stack consistent with continuation toward $0.146–$0.149.

9. Classical patterns

• Potential bullish continuation flag from Aug 14–19 resolved today with a rebound, albeit still below the $0.149–$0.151 neckline. A clean breakout through $0.151 would activate a measured move toward mid-$0.15s.
• Intraday ascending channel since the open, with controlled pullbacks: constructive for incremental upside into R1/R2 bands.

10. Pivot points (based on Aug 19 H/L/C: 0.15101/0.13593/0.13597)

• Pivot P ≈ $0.14097
• R1 ≈ $0.14601
• R2 ≈ $0.15604
• S1 ≈ $0.13093 Read-through: Price reclaimed P and is approaching R1. A daily push to R1 is typical; overshoot attempts toward the R1–R2 corridor happen if momentum persists and broader market cooperates.

11. Probability-weighted scenarios (next 24h)

• Bullish continuation (≈60%): Hold $0.142–$0.143 on dips, clear $0.146, then test $0.149–$0.151. If $0.151 breaks and holds for an hour+, extensions into $0.153–$0.155 possible by the session’s end.
• Sideways digestion (≈25%): Range between $0.141–$0.146, whipsawing around VWAP/P. This would keep the repair process intact but delay the breakout.
• Risk-off fade (≈15%): Lose $0.142, revisit $0.140–$0.139. If broader crypto weakens, a stop-run to $0.136 is possible, where stronger dip-buyers likely re-emerge.

12. Risk management thoughts and trade construction

• Optimal entry logic: Buy-the-dip at VWAP/HL support rather than chasing into $0.146 resistance. A limit near $0.1432 aligns with intraday support and improves risk/reward.
• Take-profit logic: First major supply at $0.149–$0.151. Given ATR, a 24h attainable TP is $0.151 (just below Fib/MA/resistance to front-run offers). Stretch TP would be $0.155 if momentum unlocks above $0.151; however, base case targets the first heavy supply.
• Optional stop (not required but prudent): Below $0.1396 (61.8% micro retrace) or conservative below $0.1388; tactical traders could use a tighter stop under $0.141.
• R/R estimate (entry $0.1432 → TP $0.151; stop $0.1396 as example): Reward ≈ $0.0078; Risk ≈ $0.0036; R/R ≈ 2.2:1, acceptable for a swing-tactical 24h.

13. Confluence summary

• Price above daily pivot, intraday trend up, hourly above VWAP and likely above the cloud.
• Reclaimed above 38.2% retrace; path of least resistance toward $0.149–$0.151 unless $0.142 fails decisively.
• R1 at $0.146 is near; initial rejection possible; hence dip-buy plan is favored over breakout chase to maximize expectancy.

Bottom line

• Bias: Buy dips.
• Plan: Place a buy limit around $0.1432. Target $0.151 within 24h, acknowledging potential extension to $0.155 on a strong tape. Failure to hold $0.142 would warn of a deeper retest toward $0.139–$0.136.